Macroeconomic Policy May Be Fine-Tuning Some Of The Policies Fastest In August.

On July 15th, Liu Haiquan, deputy director of the comprehensive Department of Commerce, told our reporter that the Ministry of Commerce was preparing a report on the economic situation analysis and policy recommendations in the first half of this year. According to the plan, the report will be submitted to the State Council within this week.

This reporter also learned that in July 17th, the National Bureau of statistics will release the first half of the economic operation data.

At the same time, this week, the central economic situation analysis conference will be held. It is expected that at this meeting, policy makers will form a more unified view on the direction, focus, intensity and rhythm of macroeconomic regulation and control in the second half of this year.

In response to a number of media reports in July 14th, the Ministry of Commerce has submitted a report to the State Council, clearly suggesting that the rate of appreciation of the Renminbi should be slowed down. The export tax rebates for a series of labor intensive products such as textiles, footwear and toys should be callback to alleviate the pressure of foreign trade enterprises. Liu Hai Quan clearly said: "this report is not true."

For the export-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises, especially labor intensive industries, whose policy adjustment is booming, the Ministry of Commerce, the development and Reform Commission and other relevant ministries and commissions have conducted intensive research in addition to the leadership of the State Council in July, and recently held a series of meetings to analyze the current situation and research policy proposals.

At present, there has been some consensus in the second half of the year on policies and changing the pace and intensity of regulation to alleviate the pressure on SMEs.

A person familiar with the matter also told our reporter that the support policy for textile industry, which was studied by the Ministry of industry and information technology, Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Finance for several months, is likely to be on the market in the 8 month.

The structural adjustment of trade policy calls for a high voice.

An official of the Ministry of Commerce told our reporter that from the beginning of the year, the Ministry of Commerce has clearly defined the idea of preventing export ups and downs and maintaining steady growth of exports. At that time, the interior believed that in order to maintain the stability of the macro-economy, employment and foreign trade, exports needed to maintain a certain increase, which was then defaults to about 15%.

According to customs statistics, from 1 to June this year, the total value of China's exports was US $666 billion 605 million, up 21.9% from the same period last year, though 5.7 percentage points lower than that of last year. But overall, even considering the depreciation of the US dollar, this is still the fastest growth in the world, and is still within the acceptable scope of the Ministry of Commerce.

In particular, the growth of mechanical and electrical products that occupy half of China's exports is still stable, and has become the main driving force for the growth of foreign trade exports.

From 1 to June this year, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 25.3%, and the high-tech products increased by 196 billion 170 million, up by 388 billion 780 million.

Textile, steel and other industries are affected by factors such as lower price and higher price of labor and higher limit of pre policy.

According to customs statistics, from 1 to June, the number of billets and forgings exported by our country decreased by 97%, and the number of steel exports dropped by 20.2%.

The China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce announced that in June this year, clothing and clothing accessories exported 9 billion 870 million US dollars, down 15% compared to the same period last year, the lowest monthly increase this year. 1 to June, clothing and accessories exports 49 billion 960 million US dollars, an increase of only 3.4%.

In the strong voice of enterprises, associations, chambers of Commerce and the media, the plight of the textile industry has attracted high-level attention.

Not only did the leaders of the State Council give instructions, but three ministries and commissions jointly investigated, and Premier Wen Jiabao also temporarily added one of the research destinations, the first cotton mill in Wuxi in early July, during the investigation in Wuxi, and focused on the impact of the textile export tax rebate adjustment on the previous two years.

The Ministry of Commerce said that the government will continue to adopt various policies and effectively control exports for the products of "two high and one capital" (high energy consumption, high pollution and resource type).

For labor intensive industries, although the current difficulties are part of the inevitable result of China's industrial restructuring, the Ministry of Commerce has been paying close attention to preventing the sharp decline in exports, considering that these industries are closely related to employment.

These industries, which are considered to be closely watched to prevent a sharp decline in exports in the short term, include textiles, light industry and agricultural products.

At present, export tax rebates and processing trade in trade policies are all dynamic management mechanisms, which can be used as government's policy control means.

But in addition to textile and garment export tax rebates, other industries and products do not have clear policy information.

RMB appreciation slowed down

"The biggest impact on foreign trade enterprises in the first half is not the export tax rebate and processing trade, but the appreciation of the renminbi."

Wei Yafei, director of the shoe making office of the China Leather Association, told our reporter that "because the RMB appreciation rate has been accelerating, it is difficult for both domestic enterprises and foreign buyers to determine the future exchange rate, which has brought great uncertainty to enterprise orders and business, and many large bills have been lost."

The shoe industry is also one of the industries with a big decline in exports this year.

According to customs statistics, the total export volume of footwear in China increased by 12.5% from 1 to June.

However, from 1 to May, China's leather shoes exports decreased by 14.5%, leather clothing exports dropped by 15.5%, and finished products and semi finished products dropped 59.7%.

Since the beginning of the year, rumors of thousands of shoe enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta have been plaguing this industry.

But Wei Yafei said that in the past two years, the direction of a series of industrial policy adjustments can be seen that shoemaking industry must undergo a round of adjustment and elimination, so that it is possible to achieve industrial upgrading and get rid of the low end of the international industrial chain for a long time.

Therefore, the industry has been expecting this year's predicament.

Although the Ministry of Commerce explicitly denied the suggestion that the State Council should slow down the speed of RMB appreciation in the second half of the year, a person familiar with the matter revealed to the newspaper that "the speed of RMB appreciation" has also been mentioned in the situation analysis meeting of other ministries and commissions, and the slowdown in the second half of this year is still possible.

Prior to this, the State Council's top leaders conducted a survey on macroeconomic regulation and control: Premier Wen Jiabao said in Shanghai that he should "grasp the key points and rhythm of macroeconomic regulation and control".