Can Chinese Shoemaking Enterprises Last In Vietnam?
During the economic consultation of Vietnam, Hu Zhiming, governor of the Bank of China branch of the Bank of China, conducted a survey on June 4th -9, asking 24 companies in Vietnam what they were aiming at at the beginning of the June 4th. Vietnam?
The answer is concentrated on eight aspects: stable political situation, advantageous geographical location, convenient marine pportation, abundant resources, cheaper labor costs and preferential tax policies. To enjoy WTO preferential conditions, avoid trade barriers, adjust China's industrial structure, and develop bridgehead to other ASEAN countries.
Now, how long can Vietnam's economic depression effect remain as a Chinese manufacturing pfer depressions, and it depends on whether there are fundamental changes in the above eight aspects.
However, the situation is turning rapidly. As Vietnam's preferential policies for foreign investment are gradually decreasing, labor costs are no longer so cheap. Investors are not allowed to re-examine specific projects.
Vietnam's National Day (September 2nd) is still more than three months away. Can Vietnam's financial turmoil stop? Is Vietnam's industry reshuffling or dominoes? suffer Can China and Taiwan funded enterprises with double effects of exchange rate and inflation persist in the end?
In any case, how can we remain calm in the eyes of Vietnam's turbulent financial turmoil?
"Today's Vietnam reminds us of the Asian financial turmoil of 1997." Lu Jun, director of the Finance Department of South of the Five Ridges College of Zhongshan University, said.
The shock wave of financial market turbulence in Vietnam is not far away.
Some Chinese companies, such as Galanz, Lifan and new hope, have expressed concern about the financial market turmoil in Vietnam when they interviewed our reporter. Some of them began to waver. Some of Vietnam's plans are ready to put aside production plans for the time being, while others are prepared to reduce production capacity.
In June 12th, Hubei Yihua announced its intention in the announcement. "In 2005, it decided to invest Vietnam to establish Vietnam Vietnam Chemical Co., Ltd., and plan to manufacture and sell fertilizer products such as urea. In view of the economic fluctuations in Vietnam, the company temporarily withdrew its staff in Vietnam and hired only one plator to liaise with the project. "
The army believes that the turmoil in Vietnam's financial market has a certain impact on local investment enterprises, but whether this turbulence will continue to deepen, it is worth further observation. "Pearl River Delta does not Less labor-intensive industries such as garment factories, especially the Hong Kong funded Taiwan funded enterprises, regard Vietnam as an ideal place for industrial pfer. Now they may be suspended.
However, the impact is not just on the mainland enterprises. Taiwan enterprises may be the biggest victims of the Vietnam financial crisis. Because "the most thorough", so "the most hurt". First landing on Pearl The traditional industry Taiwanese businessmen in the Delta have moved to Vietnam since 1998. As of April 22, 2007, the amount of registered capital invested by Taiwanese businessmen to Vietnam has reached US $8 billion 353 million. Second only to investment in the mainland of China.
From "eat up" to "strike?"
Vietnam was once referred to by Taiwanese businessmen as "spare tire for Taiwanese businessmen investing in the mainland of China". Especially in the past two years, Taiwanese businessmen have greatly contrasting investment between Vietnam and the mainland of China. Investment in Vietnam has increased sharply. According to the official statistics of Vietnam government, the investment from Vietnam to Vietnam increased to the first place in 2005, with a total investment of 8 billion US dollars. More than 3000.
Formosa Plastics, unified, Baocheng, Qingfeng, Daya, Zhongxing textile, "China Petroleum", Sanyang locomotive, Wedan, Taiwan paper, Tainan textile, Fengtai, Yongfeng Yu, Dongyuan and other large enterprises in Vietnam. South has a lot of investment. Among them, Vietnam has become the third largest investment destination in Taiwan Formosa group after the US and Mainland China, with a total investment of more than US $1 billion, which is close to investment in the mainland's petrochemical industry. 1 billion 300 million dollars.
"Since I set up a factory here in 2000, I have encountered nearly 20 strikes, averaging more than two times a year. There were 5 strikes in the whole factory. " One of the industrial parks in Pingyang, Vietnam. Mr. Lee, the owner of Taiwan funded footwear industry, complained to our reporter.
Mr. Li, who also has a shoe factory in Dongguan, told reporters that this (Vietnam) is different from Dongguan in mainland China. Strikes are like plagues, which erupt every year.
"Because Vietnam's wages are the lowest in Southeast Asia, in addition, industrial zones are growing at a faster pace, and more and more enterprises are investing, one is bigger than one, and the other is limited." Mr. Li It said that when the strike was severe, the production line was destroyed, and even welfare agencies and restaurants were ransacked.
Mr. Wang, who works with Mr. Lee in Vietnam to invest in toy factories, is also afraid of the strike. "Those Vietnamese workers who take the lead will obstruct, intimidate, beat other workers who want to go to work, and let people eat." It is a surprise that the police who came to deal with the strike even abetted and clamored the workers on strike.
A Taiwanese investor who has invested in Vietnam for many years pointed out that the black market price of Vietnam shield had depreciated sharply, while the official price of Dong Dong maintained a fixed exchange rate. Because we can't get the dollar, we must rely on it. Taiwan's parent company directly paid foreign subsidiaries to pay US dollars, and Vietnam's economic turmoil was indeed worrying.
"By the end of 2007, we had already increased wages, but we have to rise 10% to 20% in the near future." Mr. Li is worried.
Wang boss was very bitter about the price rise of raw materials, and the price of spare parts increased by 40% compared with that in March.
The strike problem has been troubling Vietnam's Taiwanese businessmen for many years. Taking the most concentrated Pingyang Province as an example, there are about 400 to 600 small and medium-sized businesses, and 80% of them are suffering from strikes. Although the Vietnamese government In the year before last, a strike law was adopted to standardize the strike, but the strike went on year after year.
According to Vietnamese statistical data provided by the Vietnamese representative office in Taiwan, Vietnam has more than 400 strikes throughout the year, but this year it has reached more than 200 times by the beginning of April, and more than 130 Taiwanese businessmen have been victimized this year. 。 The strike is most intense in Hu Zhiming and the provinces near Pingyang, Gu Chi, Longan, Xining, and Nai. In recent years, the strike tide of Taiwanese businessmen has been constantly increasing. Greeting from face to face, from "satiation"? Is it "strike"?
Over the past year, the Vietnamese consumer index has risen by 10%, while the Vietnamese government has raised the basic wage by 15%, but the workers are still unhappy. The overtime requirement is one and a half times the normal wage, and the workers ask for an increase of two times.
At present, the basic salaries in Hu Zhiming and surrounding areas are divided into 710 thousand, 790 thousand and 85 million grades according to the regional differences. In Vietnam, Britain, and the United States The wages paid to the workers are generally 30% to 40% more than that of the Taiwanese businessmen. Therefore, although the strike is not not, the proportion is much lower than that of the Taiwanese businessmen.
The investment department of the Ministry of economic affairs of Taiwan pointed out that there were up to 280 strikes in Vietnam in the first half of May this year, and concentrated in areas such as southern Hu Zhiming and other Taiwanese businessmen and foreign businessmen. About 50 businesses affected Taiwan business.
Pearl River Delta enterprises "step on the brakes"?
In 2006, the Vietnamese government had raised the minimum wage standard for foreign workers in the country by 25%, and increased 12% in 2007. In January this year, Hanoi took the lead in raising salaries by 13%. 。 But Vietnam's official inflation rate has reached 9.5%, an increase of 10% over the same period last year, and the consumer price index also rose 19% over last year. So it is not difficult to understand why strikes are becoming more common in Vietnam.
If Taiwan funded enterprises are affected most by "stingy", other enterprises that invest in factories in Vietnam can not escape. The spread of the strike also involved foreign manufacturers in Vietnam. The crisis of inflation.
In early June, nearly 1000 workers from the four Hanoi workshop launched a strike by Panasonic Panasonic PCV, Vietnam, asking for a pay increase of 25% to catch up with the price increase.
Over the past few months, price rises have ignited a series of strikes, highlighting the anger of thousands of workers. They quit the countryside and went to Hanoi to find business with Hu Zhiming's new development zone. Wages have shrunk sharply due to rising food and fuel prices.
"The situation here is hard to feel at home," the manager of a large motorcycle parts manufacturer in Vietnam, Hanoi, told reporters on the phone that 25% of inflation had not yet been included. The price of grain, oil and electricity is likely to soar, as the government of Vietnam has promised to control the price of these three areas by June 30th, without significant fluctuations, and after June 30th. Commodities, like other commodities, will be determined by the market. At present, the price of the market has more than doubled, and some Vietnamese have begun to hoard rice.
But relative to rice, people are more willing to buy, but also more difficult to buy, that is, the US dollar, which is associated with domestic inflation, is the huge depreciation of the Vietnamese shield in the foreign exchange market.
In the near future, the Dong shield will depreciate by 5~7 percentage points every day. "This figure means that after people get the Vietnamese shield, they will have to run for dollars, slow down, and their money will be even less valuable. "The manager described. Because the depreciation rate is too fast.
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