In The Next 10 Years, The Foreign Trade Policy Will Be Revealed.

On the 20 day, Huo Jianguo, director of the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, who was returned from the "national pformation of foreign trade development mode report" at the Canton Fair, was one of the heads of the research group of China's foreign trade development strategy in the post crisis era. He accepted the exclusive interview with the first financial daily and interpreted the strategy.

The Ministry of Commerce and international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute released the report on China's foreign trade development strategy research in the post crisis era 18. The official report put forward that China will promote double trade in goods and services in the next ten years, while continuing to work hard to promote the balanced development of import and export trade.

According to the report, the total trade volume of China's goods trade and service trade will reach about US $5 trillion and 300 billion in the next ten years, which will be doubled.

According to the briefing, the major task is directly led by Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce and vice minister of the Zijin Mountain, and comprehensively deployed the strategy of pforming China from a trading power to a trading power in the post crisis era.

The report team has a strong lineup: 4 heads of research projects, 28 sub projects, and 10 researchers in each topic. In addition to 12 divisions of the Ministry of Commerce, there are about 300 researchers in the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of Finance and the Chinese Academy of social sciences.

This report began planning in May last year, and after 1 years of concerted efforts, it was finally released.

It is possible that the report will be handed over to the senior level in an appropriate manner as a blueprint for future China's foreign trade development plan.

The two papers rewritten according to the results of the general report have been published in the first and third issue of the 2010 issue of the international trade magazine.

The topics are "strategic choice of China's foreign trade policy in the post crisis era" and "strategic adjustment and institutional mechanism innovation of China's foreign trade policy in the post crisis era", which is 7 and a half pages.

Huo Jianguo pointed out to reporters that the strategy of the report will take 20 years to realize the pformation from a trading power to a trading power: in 2010 ~2020, the status of consolidating trade power was strengthened, and from 2020 to 2010, the pformation from big to strong was realized.

Index design highlights

Speaking of the specific research methods for making the report, he put forward the quantitative method of "quantitative indicators of competitiveness", which is the biggest highlight of the report. From trade giants to powerful countries, the index of actual figures has been made, which is divided into 10 first level indicators and 26 two level indicators. The 10 first level indicators include market share, trade volume per capita, product competitiveness, balance of payments, trade terms, trade diversification, economic scale and per capita industrial structure, exchange rate stability, terms of trade, and pnational investment.

The two level indicators include the proportion of industrial services in the service sector, per capita GDP, the total number of top ten / top three trade partners, and other indicators related to economic development.

In order to let reporters understand the specific meaning of quantification, Huo Jianguo took out a netted radar map as an example to explain that the area of the core source diffused is strong and weak, and the larger the diffusion area, the stronger the index.

The index includes China, Germany, Japan and the United States. From the chart, China has only two indicators of international balance of payments and exchange rate stability relatively strong, and other aspects are relatively weak.

The largest outer ring, the most powerful index, is Germany.

The figure shows that the three circle is a basic critical point. If it is negative, it means that the index is basically not competitive. If it is above zero, it will be competitive.

The indicators of several other countries are basically covered in the three circles, while the development of the three circles in China is unbalanced. Huo Jianguo commentary, which means that the gap between China's basic indicators and manufacturing power is relatively large.

The report further quantifies the issue of competitiveness. China needs to improve and break through these indicators, so as to achieve the goal of developing from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power like the United States, Germany and Japan.

Straighten out the vague concept of foreign trade

Meanwhile, Huo Jianguo pointed out to our reporter that the report had two major functions.

On the one hand, clarification of many vague concepts and concepts in the development of foreign trade has given us a clearer outline of foreign trade.

For example, many people aim at the increasing scale of foreign trade, the slower growth of national welfare, the deterioration of terms of trade, the damage to the environment, and the question of whether there is still need to support foreign trade. This report gives some clarification from the front.

Through the study, the traditional concept is calculated by the national economic payment method. If trade can not have a negative impact on the economy for the surplus, but in the study, the use of the national economic output method, that is, converting the physical volume to calculate the impact and contribution of foreign trade on the economy, can be seen from another angle that foreign trade does not depend on its surplus, and it itself promotes economic development and employment.

On the other hand, the report clarifies the next step of China's foreign trade development. For example, in the past, China emphasized too much on comparative advantage. Later, it would emphasize more emphasis on comparative advantage while giving full play to dynamic comparative advantage and national competitive advantage or industrial competitive advantage.