Next Week'S Three Big Conjectures In The Stock Market

Although today is the first trading day of the futures trading, the magic of the delivery date failed. The market rebounded in the four major sectors of Xinjiang, Tibet, real estate and Asian Games, and the Shanghai Stock Index pushed 2600 points further.

At the close, the Shanghai stock index reported 2583.52 points, up 1.08%, and Shenzhen composite index reported 10209.07 points, up 2.65%.

In addition, along with the rapid rebound of the market, the futures contract four also joined hands to turn red. As at 15:00, today's IF1005 contract will be delivered at 2749.8 points, up 0.51%; the main IF1006 2791.6 points, up 1.10%; the monthly contracts IF1009 and IF1012 have also turned red, or 1.58% and 1.56% respectively.

Conjecture 1: the overall market environment has not improved?

Implementation probability: 60%

In the afternoon, the scramble for air and space increased significantly, and the stock index was still restrained by the 5 day moving average in the rebound. The early morning heavyweights made the leading Gold Group (600383) ebb tide. Although Vanke was slightly stronger, the weight of the head failed to impact on the trading limit, and the market remained suspicious. The main force of the counterattack was the real estate sector, which was subject to policy pressure. The sustainability of the overhang rebound still needs to be verified, resulting in the high volatility of the stock index.

Most small and medium cap stocks are slowing down. As Xinjiang, Tibet and some of the former strong stocks are strong again, the market is getting more and more atmosphere, but the overall market environment has not improved.

Conjecture two: technical rebound will emerge?

Implementation probability: 60%

China's stock market has fallen by more than 20% on its own high point. It has entered the technical traditional definition of bear market, and the technical rebound is coming. The persistence of the rebound will depend on the overshooting risk of domestic macroeconomic regulation and whether the external market turbulence can be subsided.

There is a serious oversold phenomenon in the Chinese market recently, and the technical rebound is gaining momentum.

Although the weakening of the correlation with the peripheral market makes the outlook for the forward market of the A share market still unclear, the interest rate curve of China's long and short term bonds will become steeper. This indicates that in the coming weeks, risky assets like the Chinese market will perform better than those of the less developed developed markets and gold.

Conjecture three: in the short term, how high is the uplink?

Implementation probability: 50%

Today, the market is much more affected by the external market. However, following the economic growth of the real estate sector and Xinjiang, Tibet and other regional economic sectors, the market has seen a rebound trend of low and high growth.

At present, the two or three tier real estate stocks are worth buying, and the market may exceed investors' expectations.

Although the real estate sector has seen a sharp rise this week, the short term is facing some pressure of profit taking, but the central line's rise in energy and space still exists.

Whether the Shanghai Stock Index 2482 point is a low point, because the market is still in a weak position, it is decided that whether it continues to rebound or low consolidation will be relatively weak.

Next week, the main direction of market fluctuation is upward shock, and in the short term, the upward trend is highly limited.