The Decline In Textile And Apparel Performance Has Narrowed &Nbsp, And Exports Have Improved.

The performance of listed companies has improved.

In the 09 quarter of the 1-3 quarter, the revenue of listed listed companies reached 59 billion 208 million yuan, a decrease of 10.65% over the same period last year, narrowing the contract by 1.44 percentage points, and net profit of 3 billion 712 million yuan, a 21.06% decrease compared with the same period last year, narrowing the contract by 5.39 percentage points.

On the whole, the operation of listed companies has improved.

The clothing industry has strong profitability and excellent clothing performance.

From the perspective of the molecular industry, the profitability of the garment industry is relatively strong, and the net profit fluctuates significantly, which is mainly affected by the investment returns, mainly from YOUNGOR, and the brand clothing shows a far greater profitability than the industry average.

The textile industry has been affected by the rate of pull up, and the overall profitability has declined. Investment income and extra business income make the net profit relatively stable.

The excipient industry is mainly dragged down by the decline of Rebecca's performance. Although the operating rate of Weixing shares has not been raised, the gross profit margin has been kept up by product structure adjustment.

The industry still reflects strong domestic sales and weak exports.

Domestic sales growth was strong. In August, clothing sales increased by 23.3% above the quota, and sales of clothing in large department stores increased by 21.1%. Especially in the three quarter, sales of medium and top grade brand clothing were obviously better than those of the first two quarters, and the latter will maintain a high growth trend.

Exports continued to show weakness. The decline in September narrowed, resulting from a relatively low base in the same period of 08 years. From the consumption situation of overseas markets, exports will still show a bottom shock in the short term. Due to the higher base level in the fourth quarter of 08 years, the recovery will need at least until the first quarter of 2010.

Maintain the "neutral" rating of the industry.

As exports are still at the bottom, the industry still needs time to warm up. In the three quarter, the textile and apparel index rose 15%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.6%. After excluding losses, the industry's average price earnings ratio was 37 times that of all A shares, and we maintained the "middle sex" rating of the industry.

Continue to look at domestic brand clothing.

In terms of stock selection, we extend our previous strategy, focus on domestic brand clothing, and pay close attention to export leading enterprises with good orders.

Domestic clothing consumption has shown a good growth, and sales of branded clothing are more flexible. With the gradual recovery of the economy, the income level of residents has increased and the rate of urbanization has accelerated, domestic clothing consumption will continue to grow at a high rate. We mainly recommend seven wolves and good news birds.

(Tencent Finance)

Chemical industry: textile and clothing

Textile and clothing exports have been improving as a whole, and demand in Europe and the United States has gradually recovered.

Despite the decline in export prices, exports are still down compared with the same period last year, but the export volume of textile and clothing is expected to increase slightly over the same period of 5%.

After obtaining relatively sufficient orders, exporters began to choose more favorable orders.

Relatively speaking, exports in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, South America and other regions had little impact on the crisis, and 2Q09 basically recovered to the same level in the same period of 08 years.

From 7 and August, demand in Europe and the United States began to recover, textile exports improved, clothing exports in Europe and the United States maintained a slight steady rebound, but still at a relatively low level.

From the number of participants and purchase intention of European and American businessmen attending the Canton Fair, the export of Europe and America will continue to grow in the future.

Therefore, the enterprises in the main markets concentrated in Europe and the United States have been greatly affected by the financial crisis. The export market for export business in the Middle East and Southeast Asia is relatively stable. Some exporters such as Jiangsu Hualian import and export have also strengthened the market development in these areas.

Other enterprises such as Shandong Wei Qiao group and Huarun textile company adopt the way of increasing the proportion of domestic sales to deal with the crisis.

Continue to recommend textile chemicals industry.

Through the investigation of Canton Fair, we consider that

Textile and garment industry: clothing PMI improved significantly

Three quarterly review: 09 years ago, the three quarter, the industry listed companies (48 samples) income and net profit increased by 0.55% and -5.59% respectively.

The three quarterly reports of domestic sales companies focused on steady growth, reflecting the good trend of domestic clothing retailing.

Export and export related companies generally failed to achieve positive growth, but the quality companies such as Rutai and Rebecca orders rebounded significantly, and there was a price increase trend.

Industry demand: domestic sales can be strong and export will be differentiated.

In September, the sales volume of textile and garment sales and large department stores increased by 19% and 21% respectively, though they were lower than those in August, but they are still at a high level.

It is estimated that the domestic sales growth will rise again in October, and under the moderate inflation expectation, the domestic sales will be strong.

In September, the export volume of textile and clothing decreased by 6.98% compared to the same period last year.

Judging the four quarter, exports still have a lot of pressure, and the recovery will take until 2010. But the quality companies may be ahead of the industry.

Industry supply: output and investment growth increased slightly.

Price trend: inflation is rising and raw material prices continue to rise.

At the end of October, the price of viscose staple and PET staple was 17500 and 9020 yuan / ton respectively, up 51% and 26% compared with the beginning of the year.

Domestic 328 grade cotton spot price rose to 14038 yuan / ton, CotlookA index converted cotton price also amounted to 13172 yuan / ton.

Risk warning.

The appreciation of the renminbi is putting pressure on the recovery of exports, and the rising price of raw materials will test the company's ability to raise prices.

Investment strategy.

The fourth quarter is the peak season for consumption, coupled with the moderation effect of the moderate inflation trend on consumption, the industry investment strategy is still the main selling line, and the first is the seven wolves, hang min shares and YOUNGOR.

Focus on improving export marked targets, such as Lu Tai A, Rebecca and xunxing shares.

Such companies may be ahead of the industry.

Pay attention to the targets of catalyst events, such as Jiangnan high fiber and the good news birds.