New Bill Financing Reflects Economic Slowdown Signal

There is no possibility of raising interest rates or raising reserve requirements in the short term.

Although credit growth in May remained reasonable and moderate, the structure of new loans has undergone subtle changes. The two consecutive month of growth in note financing reflects the slowdown in the economy.

Most agencies expect monetary credit will continue to fall in June, and the central bank is expected to maintain a net operation in the open market. There is no possibility of raising interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio in the short term.

Data released by the central bank showed that in May, RMB loans increased by 639 billion 400 million yuan, or 27 billion 500 million yuan less than the same period last year.

According to the sub sector, household loans increased by 263 billion 300 million yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 71 billion 400 million yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 191 billion 900 million yuan, loans from non-financial enterprises and other sectors increased by 376 billion 600 million yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 33 billion 400 million yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 308 billion 700 million yuan, and paper financing increased by 37 billion 700 million yuan.

For the credit trend in May, most agencies thought it was in line with expectations.

Societe Generale believes that in May the new RMB credit 639 billion 400 million, if the ratio of the first quarter to the fourth quarter of the ratio of 3:3:2:2 to calculate the two quarter of the new credit volume, then the May volume accounted for about second quarters of 3 or so, in line with market expectations.

The commentary report of the communications research center of the Bank of Communications said that the drop in new loans is related to the guidance of the regulatory authorities to strengthen the window, and that the banks actively adjust the pace of lending. The housing market regulation led to a decline in housing turnover and an important reason for strengthening the supervision of government financing platform loans.

"In April, on the basis of new financing of 47 billion yuan, the paper financing continued to maintain a positive growth rate of 37 billion 700 million yuan in May.

The positive growth of bill financing is reasonable, but if it continues to increase or maintain high, it may indicate the risk of economic weakness.

At present, the net increase in the two consecutive months of note financing and the slowdown in industrial value added for two consecutive months should obviously attract the attention of policy departments.

Lu Zheng commissar, senior economist at Xingye Bank, said.

Another noteworthy phenomenon is that in May, money supply continued to fall.

M0 grew by 15.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points from last month, M 1 slowed down 1.4 percentage points to 29.9% compared with the same period last year, and M 2 slowed down 0.5 percentage points to 21% over the same period.

The M 1-M 2 narrowed from 9.8% last month to 8.9%.

"The new M1 added to that month was only 259 billion yuan, which dropped considerably compared with 3 and April. The new M 1 in April and April were 511 billion yuan and 451 billion 100 million yuan respectively, indicating that the demand deposits of enterprises increased little.

Considering that M1 is closely related to business activities, we need to pay close attention to it. "

E Yongjian, a researcher at Bank of communications Financial Research Center, said.

Guo Hai securities expects that M 1, M 2 and new loans will fall sharply in June.

Guo Hai securities research report said that the recent interbank interest rates showed a rapid rise, reflecting the banks after a large number of loans and the three deposit reserve requirements, the bank's funds have been relatively tight.

Taking into account the requirements of the central bank for the first half and the second half of the new loan, we believe that the new credit in June will be between 500 billion and 600 billion, so it is difficult for the central bank to rush to lend money at the end of the last quarter.

Guo Hai Securities believes that due to massive lending in June last year and the rapid decline of new credit in June this year, both M 1 and M 2 will have a sharp decline in June. It is initially estimated that M 1 will fall from 29.9% in May to around 25%, down nearly 5 percentage points, while M 2 will fall from 21% in May to 18%, or nearly 3 percentage points.

"The operation of the open market has declined significantly since May 11th, and has been running for weeks.

Even if the future withdrawal continues to be relaxed, taking into account the 1 trillion and 530 billion increase in new credit in June last year, the M 2 is expected to continue to decline in June.

A conservative estimate is likely to fall by at least 1 percentage points to less than 20% in May.

But in the next 7-8 months, M 2 is likely to rise again.

Lu commissar said.

Based on the judgement that "the economic growth has slowed down, but the inflationary pressure is still large", some agencies believe that the policy will maintain the current strength, and there is no possibility of increasing interest rates and raising the reserve ratio in the short term, and the open market is expected to continue to maintain net operation.

"Although the price increase in May has reached a new high level, it is still necessary to observe whether there is a sustained upward trend. With the regulation of the housing market and the strengthening of the government financing platform, the growth of investment and consumption may be affected, the euro appreciation will drag on exports, and the European debt crisis will slow down the pace of interest rate increase in various countries, and the necessity of raising interest rates in the short term will be reduced.

At the same time, the possibility of raising the reserve ratio in the short term is also less likely.

It is estimated that the annual new loan will be significantly lower than the target value of 7 trillion and 500 billion.

E Yongjian said.

"The possibility of raising interest rates will not rise because of the 3.1% CPI in May. Under the current growth situation at home and abroad, the central bank's interest rate increase will continue to delay."

But Ping An Securities also said that before the target growth rate of the broad money supply M2 dropped to 17%, the policy will maintain its current strength, and the possibility of loosening does not exist.