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Weekly Newsletter: Domestic Cotton Prices Are &Nbsp High; Regulatory Measures Will Be Introduced.

2010/6/19 16:33:00 47

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Since the beginning of this year, domestic cotton spot prices have continued to rise. As of June 13th, China's cotton price index (CC Index328) was 17862 yuan / ton, creating a new high since the price of cotton was released, and the cotton price in 2009 has risen 4851 yuan / ton.

Because

global economy

The Chinese economy took the lead in recovery, and cotton textile and clothing exports resumed growth.

cotton

Demand increased; meanwhile, cotton prices in 2008 fell sharply, domestic cotton planting area decreased by more than 10%, production declined, supply and demand gap increased, domestic cotton prices rose rapidly before and after national day last year, and cotton prices rose by 2000 yuan / ton by the end of the year.

According to market conditions, relevant departments of the state issued timely macroeconomic control measures such as dumping and issuing import quotas, and the China Cotton Association also issued industry warnings continuously. The cotton price has been rising too fast, and the price has remained stable at the end of the year, and the price has remained at 15000 yuan / ton right and left.

During the Spring Festival, the international cotton prices rose sharply, and the textile situation continued to improve. The price of cotton yarn at home and abroad rose more than cotton. Textile enterprises increased cotton prices, pulling cotton prices up again, and the paction price of standard grade cotton in some areas had exceeded 18000 yuan / ton.

The rise in cotton prices is mainly determined by the fundamentals of supply and demand, while domestic and foreign cotton prices are linked together.

Main cause:

First, the demand for textile cotton is strong.

The export situation of textiles and clothing improved, spinning output continued to adjust growth, cotton yarn prices rose more than cotton, driving cotton prices rose rapidly.

Two is the new year cotton production situation is not optimistic.

According to the Cotton Association survey, the cotton planting area is basically stable compared with last year.

On the other hand, cotton production started badly. Some cotton producing areas frequently suffered from disastrous weather. Cotton sowing was generally delayed for about half a month. The market expects the contradiction between production and demand in the next year is still more prominent.

Three, since the end of last year, the price of bulk agricultural products has risen sharply, and has a certain joint effect on the rise of cotton prices.

Four, from an international perspective,

international organization

It is predicted that the end of global cotton inventory is expected to decline, and the inventory consumption ratio in 2010/11 is the lowest since 1994/95.

Cotton prices in New York futures and international spot markets are running high and rising with domestic cotton prices.

Five, social capital enters the cotton market, excluding speculation factors.

Although the current high price cotton yarn can support the high cotton price, there are still many uncertainties: the rapid growth of textile raw material costs and the rising labor costs will increase the operating costs of enterprises, reduce the supporting power of the latter products such as grey cloth and clothing, and suppress the profit space of the road enterprises. Sooner or later, they will be pmitted to the spinning links. The external demand market is dragged down by the debt crisis of the EU, and the recovery is still slow.

The affordability of textile enterprises will determine how far high cotton prices can go.

While actively coordinating Xinjiang cotton pportation, relevant departments will introduce relevant regulatory measures to meet textile demand, maintain market stability and achieve stable annual pition of new and old cotton.

A week before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday (June 7th -6 13), domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise, driving electronic matching and futures rising, and the two market contracts rose by 150 yuan / ton throughout the week.

Internationally, the world's cotton prices have rebounded strongly, thanks to the macroeconomic data of various countries, the US dollar exchange rate has fallen and the US cotton export contract has hit a new high of the year.

On Friday, New York cotton futures settled 81.54 cents per pound in July, up 4.48 cents from the previous week, and the Cotlook A index was 95.4 cents / pound, rising 5.8 cents a week.

China imported cotton price index FC Index M index is 96.2 cents / pound, discount 1% tariff 16727 yuan / ton, lower than the domestic similar grade price 1135 yuan / ton; discount sliding quasi tax 17207 yuan / ton, lower than domestic 655 yuan / ton.