Zheng Cotton'S Long-Term Trend Will Be Dominated By Oscillations.

Direct impact, and the international market as a result of the eurozone debt crisis still exists, the United States economic recovery momentum and other factors, the futures market is also in a downward trend. For the domestic cotton market, the domestic cotton market supply and demand is still tight, and the price of the cotton futures contract has maintained a high consolidation trend in the near future. In the market expectations, the new cotton market will make the supply relaxed, coupled with the slowdown in domestic textile exports, and its oscillation is weak. Overall, although the short supply of market support still supports the high spot cotton price, the new cotton market will gradually ease the impact of the tight supply pattern of the domestic cotton market. Under the background of the appreciation of the RMB and the pressure of textile exports increasing, the long-term trend of Zheng cotton will be dominated by oscillating downward. At present, the domestic macro-control policies have been implemented in the stock market, futures market and real estate industries.

Commodity prices fall, cotton prices rise insufficient support

Since entering the two quarter, in order to prevent loose monetary policy from causing excessive inflation and inflation, our government has issued a series of macro-control policies, and has obviously suppressed the stock market, futures market and the real estate industry.

To some extent, the rise or fall of domestic stock market can reflect the active degree of social market economy and investors' participation in the capital market. However, the domestic stock market has been in a downward trend for 3 months, and the enthusiasm of investors to participate in the capital market is obviously frustrated.

Commodity futures market is no exception, non-ferrous metals and chemical products prices continue to fall.

In the overall decline in commodity prices, although cotton prices are supported by tight supply and demand in the spot market, cotton prices in the spot market are relatively strong, but the cotton price is generally strong and weak.

At present, the price of PTA, which is the same as the textile material, continues to decline. The price of its main contract has dropped to 7000 yuan / ton, which is also a certain constraint on the rising of Zheng cotton.

In addition, the US Department of agriculture's report on crop acreage released at the end of June showed that the 2010/2011 cotton planting area is expected to increase by 19%.

At present, due to the good weather conditions in the producing areas, the US cotton is growing well, and the high yield is expected to be enhanced.

At the same time, domestic cotton and India and Brazil new cotton planting area is stable, and the output of new cotton is expected to increase.

To a certain extent, it will suppress the rise of cotton prices in the later stage.

On the whole, the current global economic recovery situation is uncertain, exacerbating the market's concerns about the "two bottom finding" of the economy, and the strengthening of domestic macroeconomic regulation has weakened commodity prices, coupled with the global and domestic cotton production is expected to be optimistic.

At present, the domestic textile industry occupies an export advantage, mainly from the domestic market.

It is understood that as of now, the total domestic cotton business inventory is 1 million 900 thousand tons, of which the mainland cotton city commercial inventory is 1 million 10 thousand tons, Xinjiang cotton business inventory (not out of Xinjiang) 890 thousand tons.

Compared with commercial inventories in the same period in the past year, the current stock has increased slightly. In addition, there will still be a small number of selling and importing cotton to the port in the late national cotton store. If we calculate the consumption rate of 700 thousand tons per month in domestic cotton market, the stock of cotton city will be enough to support the new cotton market.

Therefore, although the spot supply is tight, it is not entirely without cotton supply.

From Zhengzhou cotton main 1101 contract daily K-line chart, the technology has appeared a "head shoulder top" signs, especially in the MACD index in many times after the top deviation, the death fork indicates that the market is likely to end.

In the near future, the price will start in the range of 16000 to 16500 yuan / ton, and the lower stall will support 16000 yuan / ton. If it goes down, it can be reduced to 15000 yuan / ton line with the gradual improvement of the fundamentals.

On the whole, Zheng cotton's contract in recent months is relatively strong, mainly depending on the existence of a tight supply and demand pattern. However, the gradual increase of new cotton will ease the pressure of supply, and the appreciation of the renminbi will have a heavier impact on textile exports, and the overall domestic and global economic environment is still in the control period. This determines that cotton prices will be dominated by oscillating behavior in the medium and long term.