Factors Contributing To The Decline Of China'S Economic Growth Rate

The economic slowdown in the second half and next year seems to be a foregone conclusion. After 30 years of sustained high growth of 9.8%, the major factors affecting economic growth have been or are undergoing major changes, and the gap between the real growth rate and the potential growth rate is narrowing.

Under such circumstances, it is normal for the economy to slow down appropriately.

We should look at the economic slowdown objectively from the perspective of development.

In my opinion, the factors that lead to the decline of the current economic growth in China are mainly in the following four aspects:

First, adjust the structure.

Structural adjustment is a way to pform China's economic growth and achieve China's economic growth.

Structural adjustment potential is necessary to eliminate backward production capacity, resulting in excess capacity.

The two is resources and environmental constraints.

30 years of high growth cost us enormous resources and environmental costs.

However, this mode of economic growth that depends on resource sharing and sacrificing the environment for high growth has been difficult to sustain.

The total amount of resources and per capita resources in China are decreasing significantly, and bulk commodities should be imported from abroad.

Therefore, resources and environment have become one of the hard constraints of China's economic growth.

The three is population.

First, demographic dividend.

An important reason why our country can achieve high growth for 30 years is that we have low labor cost advantages.

Since the reform and opening up, China has implemented the export oriented economic growth strategy, and exports have become the main engine of economic growth, and the continued expansion of exports is mainly due to our low labor cost advantage.

China's export product structure is dominated by "two out of" processing trade, and the processing trade surplus is almost equal to or surpassing the total trade surplus.

Why do foreign businessmen build large quantities of processing trade enterprises in China? That is because our labor costs are low.

But at present, China's labor market has entered the Lewis turning point, the labor cost is rising, the comparative advantage of low labor force is gradually losing, and the pfer of processing trade will become an inevitable trend.

Second, institutional dividends.

The reform greatly liberated the social productive forces, stimulated people's enthusiasm for work and work, and improved the efficiency of social production.

A series of reforms, such as ownership reform, distribution system reform and factor market reform, centered on the reform of state-owned enterprises, have become an important driving force for economic growth.

Compared with the general economic factors that drive economic growth, the role of reform for high economic growth must not be underestimated.

But in recent years, in some areas that need further reform, progress has been slow or even stagnant.

The pulling effect of reform on economic growth is decreasing.

In the analysis of economic growth, we must not exclude the factors of reform and shelve them.

It can be said that if we do not have a new start and progress in reform, only in the economic factors surrounding economic growth, economic growth will surely be affected.

Third, globalization dividends.

Opening up is one of the boosters of China's high economic growth.

The massive introduction of foreign capital and the expansion of exports have effectively promoted economic growth. We have benefited greatly from the process of economic globalization.

However, with the full implementation of the commitments to join the WTO and the depth and breadth of opening up to a higher level, the role of globalization in promoting economic growth is decreasing.

Especially after the outbreak of the financial crisis, trade wars and exchange rate wars came one after another, and China's foreign trade environment deteriorated.

Naturally, the role of exports in economic growth is also greatly reduced.

The four is the base of economic aggregate.

At the beginning of reform and opening up, the total economic volume of our country is very small.

In 1978, the total amount of GDP was only 364 billion 500 million yuan, and it was nearly 34 trillion in 2009. It is expected to reach 37 trillion this year, which is 100 times that of 1978.

On the basis of such a high economic aggregate base, it is very difficult to maintain the two digit growth every year.

It should be said that China's economy is at a turning point from the high growth stage to the steady growth stage.

After a long period of high growth, such a period of economic growth is bound to come.

From the practice and historical experience of economic growth in developed countries, no developed country's high economic growth can last for 50 years or 70 years.

Of course, our country can not be an exception.

Therefore, we should comprehensively and scientifically analyze various factors that affect China's economic slowdown and objectively look at and correctly understand China's economic slowdown. Similarly, in the face of possible economic slowdown, we need to take effective policy measures to expand domestic demand and stabilize external demand and to stabilize economic growth as far as possible, especially to intensify reform, stimulate and boost the endogenous driving force of economic growth, and give full play to the pull effect of institutional dividends on economic growth.