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China'S PMI Hit A 17 Month Low Of &Nbsp In July, And The Economy Continues To Cool.

2010/8/2 18:20:00 44

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China Logistics

According to the data released by the Federation of purchasing, 1, the purchasing managers index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in July was 51.2%, down 0.9 percentage points from June, which is the third consecutive month decline of PMI and the lowest level in 17 months.

Cai Jin, vice president of China Federation of logistics and purchasing, pointed out that PMI once again dropped, on the one hand, from seasonal factors. In the past years, China's summer industrial production had weakened.

On the other hand, it is the result of macro active regulation, such as real estate regulation and export tax rebate rate adjustment.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, said that in July

PMI

The index continued to fall, indicating that the growth trend of economic growth is still developing.

Data show that in the first half of this year, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 11.1% over the same period, of which the first quarter economic growth reached 11.9%, reaching a new high in the current round of economic recovery, and the growth rate dropped to 10.3% in the two quarter.

The trend of growth and decline is confirmed in the index.

In July, the 11 sub index of PMI dropped by 1 percentage points.

But the production index, which reflects the vitality of manufacturing industry, has increased by 3.1 percentage points from last month, a 0.7 percentage point increase from last month.

However, experts say there is no need to worry too much.

Zhang Liqun said, though

Economic growth

The callback will continue to remain at a relatively high level overall.

At present, the market environment at home and abroad has improved significantly compared with the same period last year, and the leeway of policy has also increased significantly. It is estimated that there will not be a sharp decline in investment growth and no negative growth will occur in exports.

With the support of these factors, the economic growth rate of the future will gradually become stable, and the annual economic growth rate can be maintained at around 9.5%.

Soochow Securities report also pointed out that from the perspective of annual economic increments, the probability of rapid economic growth in the second half of this year is unlikely.

"As China's policy support for investment in the central and western regions has increased, and private investment has been encouraged, the keynote of China's economic growth will not change."

Everbright Securities chief macroeconomic analyst Pan Xiangdong said.

Regarding the future trend of the PMI index, He Yifeng, a senior researcher of Hongyuan securities, said that in general, the impact of the relevant regulatory measures in the macroeconomic operation is the biggest in the first two months, and then gradually attenuates.