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Spandex: The Road Is Long And Far Away.

2010/8/3 21:01:00 80

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Since mid July,

spandex

The price of 20D dropped from 79000 yuan / ton to 74000 yuan / ton, only half a month. The price range reached 6.3%, while the price of 40D spandex was relatively strong.

Why do we have such a trend? Through market observation and analysis, we find that the main reason for this kind of market is the shrinkage of terminal demand of 20D fine denier products. The price difference between brands has further increased to 68000-80000 yuan / ton, while the 40D spandex stock and supply are in a tight state, so the price of 40D is relatively strong and has not declined.

What will happen next month? After looking at all kinds of factors, the author thinks that the price of spandex will continue to be weak, and there will be further room for further changes in the specifications of some stocks.

First, the low rate of start-up in all downstream areas.

From everywhere

Spandex enterprise

The start-up rate is still at a low level in all fields.

The overall load of downstream machinery in Guangdong Foshan area is about 4%, the total application of spandex continues to fall, the overall load of the yarn industry is low, and the operation in the downstream area of Fujian is also obviously declining, and the overall low level operation is 3-4 to the left. The whole industry of Changshu circular machine relies on the strength of the enterprise to stabilize its operation, and the operating rate is maintained at 6-7 status. As the majority of the varieties are non elasto pure polyester varieties, spandex accounts for only 3-4 of the proportion. The downstream circular machine industry in Jiaxing Haining area has been started at around 5%.

From the point of view of the start up situation, the current start-up rate is obviously insufficient, which will have a certain negative impact on the future price of Spandex Products, thus limiting the pulling of upstream raw materials.

Second, the upstream material of spandex has been in a consolidation state recently, and this state has been suppressed.

spandex

Market rebound.

At present, the total price of the pure MDI market is relatively stable, and the spot mainstream trading area is between 16300-16800 yuan / ton. The paction price of NPU in East China and Southern China is 16500-16800 yuan / ton, and the paction price of BASF is 16300-16700 yuan / ton, and the trading area in North China has declined, and NPU has reached 16500 yuan / ton.

PTMEG domestic spandex market, due to order constraints, still maintain a stable state of the main body, the basic trading range is maintained at 25000-26000 yuan / ton, a few low supply is quoted at 24500 yuan / ton, during the period, there are many individual brands high turnover in 28000 yuan / ton; in the field of PTMEG, the price of the field of spandex spandex is 3500 dollars / ton, and the factory price in Shanxi is 25500 yuan / ton.

The status of the price of spandex raw materials has an effect on the price of the spandex. As long as the upstream raw materials do not go up, the price of the spandex can not be pushed up, so that the recent rebound of the spandex has become impossible.

Third, the textile industry is facing the off-season and the terminal demand is weakening.

Judging from the recent trend of China's chemical fiber fabrics in the Ministry of Commerce, there are several ups and down, but the overall trend is still the following drop. The index of chemical fiber fabrics dropped from 97.91 to 97.84 at the beginning of the month.

And from the two kinds of elastic fabrics with spandex raw materials (elastic spring sub spinning and elastic satin), basically also showed a downward trend, the decline in the amplitude of around 1.

Elastic spring Asias began from 101.73, and then fell to the current 100.53 points. The elastic satin started from 99.42 and dropped to 98.56.

The decline of elastic fabric index indicates the decrease of spandex demand.

The downstream textile industry's traditional off-season is coming, and the overall market demand is decreasing.

Secondly, environmental remediation work is still continuing. Enterprises in Shengze are unable to operate at full capacity due to insufficient employment. Receivables recovery is more difficult and the market is generally dull.

In terms of start-up rate, the market rate of water sprayed, jet and warp knitting is still at a low level under the influence of low season factors and policy factors.

Such a weak textile market, the demand for raw materials is also gradually reduced, which is a direct factor affecting the rise and fall of the spandex industry, perhaps the spandex industry will begin to enter the "ice age" with the textile industry's off-season.

Fourth, from the international economic situation, the current international situation is still not optimistic. The main problems are: the shadow of sovereign debt crisis in some European countries has not receded, and the major international currency exchange rate still fluctuates greatly.

In order to achieve the goal of reducing the deficit as early as possible, Europe's rapid withdrawal from fiscal stimulus is a great threat to its sustained economic recovery.

If the eurozone withdraws in advance on monetary stimulus, it will be disastrous for Europe and even the global economy.

From the perspective of the US economy, the US consumer confidence index dropped to 50.4 in July, due to the fear of a sluggish job market. It reached its lowest level in nearly five months, also lower than previously expected 50.8, and the consumer expectation index in July also dropped from 72.7 to 66.6.

These data highlight the instability of economic recovery. Under the background of such international economic situation, the demand of spandex's peripheral market will obviously not become a favorable factor, which will also affect the trend of the spandex market in the second half of the year.