Made In China No Longer Accelerations Have Reached The High Point Of Rebound.

China's manufacturing PMI (Purchase Management Index purchasing managers' index) fell for the 3 consecutive month, which seems to support the idea that tightening policies drag down economic growth.

In August 11th, the National Bureau of statistics released July economic operation data showed that electricity consumption, investment, foreign trade and other data all appeared growth rate decline.

This seems to support the prediction of Xie Guozhong, an independent economist: this round of so-called economic growth is only brought about by the replenishment of stocks and stimulus policies, not from the structural rebalancing of various industries and countries. The loose monetary policy thus implemented will push the world towards high inflation and foreshadow another crisis in 2012.

At the beginning of this month, China logistics and

The two data deviate to a certain extent because their calculation methods are different.

From the statistics, the official PMI coverage is two times the sample size of HSBC PMI, and the larger sample size makes the result more accurate.

In addition, the official PMI is mainly targeted at large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises and listed companies, while HSBC PMI focuses on small and medium enterprises, especially private enterprises.

Liu Ligang, director of China Economic Research at ANZ bank, believes that official PMI is more helpful for understanding the general trend of China's manufacturing industry, while HSBC PMI reflects China's economic activity more closely, and the combination of them is closer to the reality of China's economy.

What is the reality of China's economy? A Guangdong family

The electronics industry is not the most representative.

"The most obvious is the steel industry."

Gao Wei, director of the analysis and prediction Department of China Logistics Information Center, told global entrepreneur that contradictions are more prominent in the industry due to the importance of the steel industry to the national economy and its structural problems.

CFLP iron and steel industry PMI has fallen below 50 since June of this year, and picked up slightly in July, but it still hovered around 45.

The main reason for PMI in steel industry is less than 50 is contradiction between supply and demand.

On the one hand, there is a serious surplus of capacity and output in the industry. On the other hand, downstream demand is still insufficient.

Wang Guoqing, an analyst at Lange Iron and Steel Information Research Center, told global entrepreneur that production targets of the three major industries, the metal products industry, the general equipment manufacturing industry and the pportation equipment manufacturing industry, had dropped to varying degrees in July. For example, the largest cold rolled plate in the automotive industry began to decline from March.

Steel makers may blame the automakers for this.

According to the China Automobile Industry Association statistics, from April to July this year, the domestic car market has declined for 4 consecutive months.

Some auto makers are planning to reduce their annual sales targets, such as BYD's first recognition that the target of 800 thousand vehicles for the whole year is not realistic and reduced to 600 thousand vehicles.

Gao Wei said that in the 18 industries they focused on, the rate of auto fall was second, after black steel.

As for the reason why the auto industry continues to decline, Zhu Ming, a senior market analyst at J.D.POWER, believes that the most important thing is the high volume of car sales at the beginning of this year, and it is not realistic to continue to rise at the same time, which is affected by the overall economic slowdown.

But he still believes that the negative impact of the automotive industry is much less than that of other manufacturing industries, because the auto industry relies mainly on the domestic market.

Jin Weidong, partner and managing director of Boston consulting company, is responsible for automotive market research.

He believes that the B2C industry, that is, facing the consumer industry, has a good market prospect, especially the penetration rate of China's automobile market is still relatively low, and the space is very large.

"In the second half of this year, there will be two digit growth."

Jin Weidong said to Global Entrepreneur.

Although the situation in different industries is not consistent, the overall callback of the manufacturing sector is an indisputable fact.

Over the past 20 years of high growth and the rapid cooling of the economy after the financial crisis in 2008, the two kinds of vertigo have just passed. Will the Chinese economy usher in or grow or slow down?

More haste, less speed than {page_break}

The good news is that China's manufacturing industry is just slowing down rather than collapsing.

For this reason, economist Tang Min thinks there is no need to worry too much.

He told global entrepreneur that the current economic trend is a bit slower in speed, but it is changing to a healthier track of development.

Last year to the beginning of this year, in the low economic situation of the world, more than 10% of China's growth was actually driven by the government's investment in real estate and infrastructure. It is not a reflection of the real investment and consumption demand of the market, so it is prone to overheating and bubbles.

After the weakening of the stimulus policy, the economy gradually dropped to a more stable but more stable growth.

"If the growth is full of bubbles, even faster, it will be more haste and less speed."

Tang Min predicted that the fourth quarter of next year, next year, the economic growth rate may decline further, but it will remain at around 9%.

Tang Min's view belongs to the "stability and stability faction". Economists and insiders from the same viewpoint include Yu Yongding, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC, and Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of Galaxy Securities.

Yu Yongding published the article "China needs slower and better growth".

Zuo Xiaolei defined it as "green growth". He thought China needed to eliminate GDP's high growth preferences and improve its economic quality.

Others argue that reducing inventory and export slump may damage economic momentum in the short term.

At present, slightly tightened regulation and control policies have also made adjustments in the market.

Tang Min believes that China's regulatory policies for overheated economy have achieved initial results, such as the steady trend of real estate.

This is not only related to the credibility of the government, but also to prevent the Chinese economy from falling into a vicious circle of reliance on government investment.

Another reason for maintaining policy stability is that the current inflation situation is still not optimistic.

Tang Min told Global Entrepreneur, on the one hand, the rise in world grain prices is driving China's grain prices up. On the other hand, wage increases are also increasing. "The most worrying thing is not too slow growth, but inflation."

If the economic slowdown increases, monetary policy can be moderately relaxed, but the current situation is not needed.

"Green growth" also refers to the homeopathy of China's economic structure.

This is the current policy focus, including eliminating backward production capacity, promoting the development of new energy, changing the situation of over reliance on exports, and breaking monopoly.

These measures may further inhibit the manufacturing industry in a short period of time, but "it will be even more difficult now without adjustment," said Gao Wei, director of the China Logistics Information Center's analysis and prediction division.

She is optimistic about the performance of the manufacturing industry in the fourth quarter of this year, but there are some worries about the situation next year and the next year: the effect of the government's 4 trillion yuan investment is basically dissipated, and the impact of real estate regulation and control measures on the steel and other manufacturing industries will also surpass the psychological effect, and begin to appear on a large scale in the actual production link.

The ongoing affordable housing scheme, the reconstruction of the southern floods and the railway investment plan are known as the new 4 trillion project, which will give the manufacturing industry a shot in the arm in the second half of this year.

But as Tang Min said, such projects can solve some problems, but can not solve the fundamental problems.

Economic growth should be changed from relying on policy investment to activating the real consumption demand and investment of the market, so that enterprises, especially private enterprises, will become the protagonists of China's economy.