In The Post Crisis Era, "Danger" And "Machine" Mean No Order?

According to the latest data released by China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index PMI rose 0.5 percentage points in August to 51.7% after three consecutive months of decline.

On the highway in Ningbo, the reporters interviewed met with traffic jam, which made us feel the heat of Ningbo's foreign trade ahead of time. In a few kilometers of the convoy, Wu Li was lined with large series of container trucks.

When we arrived at the port of Ningbo, we could see that the container yard was stacked with containers. The berthing vessels on the docks were also stacked with containers.

From the well ordered loading and unloading scene, we could not feel too much difference in port volume. But the staff told us that the container throughput of Ningbo port this year has hit a record high in the same period.

Ningbo Port Terminal Manager: the more obvious feature is exporting to Europe.

Reporter: are there any other features like this?

Reporter: exporting to Africa, for example, at that time?

Port manager of Ningbo port:

Reporter: from here?

Port manager of Ningbo port: Yes, the purpura is produced in Yiwu, so Yiwu is exported from here to Africa.

As a port of second of domestic cargo throughput, Ningbo port covers many provinces such as Zhejiang and Jiangxi. According to the figures released by Ningbo port, the container throughput of Ningbo port reached 6 million 228 thousand and 500 TEUs in the first half of this year, an increase of 34% over the same period last year. It has surpassed Busan, Dubai and Guangzhou, becoming the fifth largest container port in the world.

By convention, the peak season of container terminals is in the 7, 8 and 9 three months, that is, the period of pporting goods before Christmas. Therefore, the port throughput will still be at its peak.

Ningbo Port Terminal Manager: we ourselves estimate that in August, some products will be over July.

The staff told us that they were ready to store more containers in the cargo yard.

From the shipping vane, it shows the exuberant import and export, but now most of the pportation is a few months ago. So what is the order and production status of the enterprises? In the next few companies we visited, we found that the busy ones were not just port workers.

Wang Yulong, general manager of AUX air conditioning Division

Wang Yulong: Yes, the usual practice of air conditioning industry is at least a week or half a month in August. But now we have no chance to take a vacation. Our equipment could have been stopped and repaired as a whole, but now we can only make gradual repairs through the year.

Wang Zhilong, general manager of AUX air conditioning division in Ningbo, described the strong growth of the export market in the first half of this year.

Wang Yulong: this market, this change can be said to make people more and more not adapt, like this year's climate change, we are not suited to.

Wang Yulong told reporters that in the most difficult time of 2009, the export orders of AUX air conditioners dropped by 50% a month, but since 2010, they suddenly found that they could not make orders.

Wang Yulong: 3, 4, 5, these three months, the whole industry is actually out of stock, and can not deliver goods, because the whole resources, supporting resources have basically not kept up, we are immersed in the crisis of 09 years, everyone has not slowed down, never thought that the market will suddenly rise from 28 million to 29 million to 38 million, because this nearly 10 million increase, it can be said that after the crisis, the explosive growth of this kind of recovery.

In other enterprises, we also see a busy production scene.

Wang Jianhao, President of double deer battery

Wang Jianhao: the production condition is very good. We are all running in 24 hours. The whole enterprise has reached full load production. It has increased by 21.3% in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year.

Reporter: what kind of situation is it in history?

Wang Jianhao: the highest peak in history.

Double deer battery is currently the largest export company of alkaline batteries in China, and the 70% product export. Wang Jianhao, President of China, told us that although production has not yet been in the peak season of the traditional battery export in the second half of the year, their production has kept hitting a new high.

Wang Jianhao: August will be better.

Reporter: will be better than the previous few months?

Wang Jianhao: better than a few months ago, better than any month.

Many people in the financial crisis did not have money for the Americans. At that time, the stores went less. Instead, the stores selling Chinese goods sold well, and China's goods were cheap and beautiful, so such stores began to enter Chinese products.

Reporter: financial crisis is also dangerous and organic. To you, {page_break}?

Wang Jianhao: for us, it is opportunity and opportunity.

Whether it is the busy loading dock of Ningbo port or the tight production line of foreign trade enterprises, they are pmitting a message to us. After the impact of the international financial crisis, the export of foreign trade has rebounded rapidly, and the demand for overseas market is large, and orders are many. Many enterprises seem to have ushered in a rare market opportunity.

However, in the face of prosperity, we find that enterprises are facing new troubles in the face of steep orders.

The reporter came to a garment company which exported to Japan. The boss told us that it was the time when they had the most orders and the best production. We could see that many workers were busy catching up. But on the adjacent production lines, we saw that the machines in rows were idle, and the dust was already on them.

Why is a good production line idle? Actually, the reason is very simple, that is, lack of people.

Workshop director: now our factory is short of workers.

Compared with previous years, we used to have the highest number of 200 people here, and now there are almost 100 people, half the difference. The director of workshop, Xiao Liu, told us that there are basically 15 or 16 people on a production line of 25 people, which puts him under great pressure.

Workshop director: less workers say we have a lot of pressure on production. Our workers are, every worker is a heavy workload. For many years, textile and clothing has been the main export product of Ningbo. But in the first half of this year, with the rapid recovery of the market, orders and machines are the shortage of workers and become the common difficulties faced by many Ningbo textile enterprises.

Wang Dingying, general manager of Pacific bird

Wang Dingying: it should be said that 09 years of difficulty is that there are workers or I have no staff, because the whole economy is shrinking, but now I am saying that my economy is slowly recovering my list, but I just can't go on without anyone. This is a serious problem. Now we have got our salesmen to go to the factory in person.

In the interview, we met Xiao Bao, a business director of Ningbo Taiping bird import and export company. On the day we filmed, the company organized an annual tour to the field. But Xiao Bao and her other colleague could not go, but rushed to the factory to rush to complete a batch of orders.

We can see that Xiao Bao runs from one workshop to another in the morning, running around and checking the status of order fulfillment in every link carefully, but she still finds that the delivery time may be getting smaller and smaller.

Bao Xuelian Ningbo Taiping bird import and Export Co., Ltd. import and export eight business executives

Xiao Bao: the list I told today is too late to deliver.

Reporter: can't we get out?

Little Bao: no way out.

Xiao Bao has been doing foreign trade for 12 years. She told us that orders have never been so difficult to carry out.

Xiao Bao: the most troublesome problem is the shipment problem, which can not be delivered, or this problem.

Xiao Bao: it used to be a list made by the factory to take the foreign trade company. Now, it is the list of the foreign trade companies, that is, the factory is too difficult.

Reporter: is it difficult?

Little Bao: it's hard.

The same thing with Xiao Bao is the factory that deals with clothes. There are obviously large orders in front of them, but they dare not sign contracts.

Xia Hongfang, general manager of Ningbo Jiangdong Liancheng Garments Co., Ltd.

Xia Hongfang: the order is many, even if you, our factory expands 100 times the order to get.

The problem is that if you get the order, if the labor shortage is happening all the time, it means that you have to make a loss and do not plan to operate.

Xia Hongfang told us that friends around him were faced with the same problems as he did. Some factories were even worse off.

Xia Hongfang: the worst one, because I have a friend, the worst one. There are 100 workers working today.

We can not overcome this problem ourselves. Only the government can formulate good policies to regulate the labor market.

In his 10 years of painstaking clothing factory, looking at the empty machine, Xia Hongfang was very helpless.

Xia Hongfang: if this continues to develop, many enterprises are in pition, including the development of the second industry, are in pition.

Xia Hongfang, general manager of the clothing factory, told us that his initial goal of pformation is to maintain hairy crabs.

A garment processing enterprise that has persisted in the financial turmoil is now improving and thinking of raising crabs.

But in our reporter's interview, we found that even larger foreign trade enterprises in Ningbo are not too easy to sign in the face of rapidly increasing overseas orders.

What difficulties do they face?

Wang Dingying, general manager of Ningbo Taiping bird import and export company, is now opening the computer to see the exchange rate every day, because the loss of a list in the first half of this year has impressed her deeply.

Wang Dingying: in the first half of the year, when the euro was 9.1 yuan, but we passed this list two months later, when I came in, when the euro became 8.3, that time was very painful. Our money was hard earned money.

Wang Dingying told reporters that the export trade of their company increased by 30% in the first half of this year, but the profit did not increase.

Wang Dingying: now that our salesmen are afraid to sign long lists when they take orders, why?

Wang Dingying: at present, the profit situation is actually very small. As we usually say, foreign trade makes clothing exports relatively speaking, the profit margin is also in, for example, 5% to 6% or 6% to 10% is also to see the grade of that product.

Now, the profit margins are basically 2% to 3%, or even for instance, for example, the appreciation of the renminbi, or, for example, the cost of raw materials such as labor cost, that is to say, after that, your space will be even 1% or lower.

In Ningbo AUX, Wang Yulong, general manager of air conditioning division, met us to describe his current state.

Wang Yulong: the person who makes the air-conditioner is almost the same as the speculation futures.

Wang Yulong: when I come every morning, I will basically look at the key raw materials of the air conditioner and see its changes, such as the price of copper and aluminum in the air conditioning industry.

Reporter: spot price or futures price?

Wang Yulong: both futures and spot should be looked at.

The reason why Wang Yulong was so concerned about the price of raw materials was that he was really surprised by the price fluctuations over the past two years.

Wang Yulong: at the earliest time, at that time, more than 1.7 thousand in 2001, 80 thousand in an instant, it continued to grow continuously for 5 years to 80 thousand peak. In 2008, it fell from 80 thousand to low in a flash, and fell to 24 thousand at once.

It's not too much to describe a roller coaster.

We found that not only Wang Yulong, but also Wang Jianhao, President of double deer battery, told us that the most important information in his cell phone is the daily price of zinc, the main raw material.

Wang Jianhao: This is the zinc price I gave to the purchasing department every day, the international zinc price and the Shanghai zinc price, for example, from August 6th, it increased by 350 yuan.

Rose 250 yuan, up 300 yuan, up 150 yuan, rising every day, rising every day, rising continuously from July 15th, rising prices every day.

Despite the beautiful performance record in the first half of the year, whether it is a double deer or a AUX, it is more prudent to sign the bill than before.

Wang Yulong: overseas orders, you know there is a lag period, it probably lagged behind may have one, the least one month, the longest may lag three months, but three months later, I just gave you a simple example, from July to August, copper prices have risen 7 and 8 thousand at this stage. In such a short month, it means that I will definitely have problems in August.

Reporter: then, when you sign the bill, are there any more awkward and confusing lists that you dare not sign?

Wang Yulong: Yes, this must be the time for any of our general managers to shake hands.

Wang Jianhao: now I choose some orders which are not very acceptable. Many of my clients want me to make a three year contract and a two-year contract. I am not sure for more than a year. I can only make a 6 month contract.

Reporter: why? {page_break}

Wang Jianhao: because I don't know the extent of the appreciation of the renminbi, the order we are collecting now is US dollars, a renminbi appreciation and a raw material price increase, so we are not too brave to take long term orders.

In contrast to the hot market witnessed by the outside world, faced with a variety of variables, exporters feel the greater difficulty of operation than the sharp decline in the global economic crisis last year.

Wang Yulong: objectively speaking, in fact, the profit situation in 2010 this year will be a little worse than that in 09 years.

Wang Yulong: the absolute value of its profits may not change much, but the gross profit rate may drop.

Why is it that danger, danger and opportunity are both dangers and opportunities, because in 09 years, raw materials have come down sharply.

Half of the whereabouts, the whereabouts of 50%...

This can be said to bring about endless contribution to gross margin.

When deciding whether to sign a bill, whether to protect profits or protect customers, Wang Dingying, general manager of Taiping bird import and export company, used a word to tide over difficulties.

Wang Dingying: just ask the customer to make a little bit. Then, let me make a little bit of our foreign trade company. Then the three party of the factory together is trying to get the old customer or the list next to be the most important.

Otherwise, I think so. If a customer loses, he will never come back, because China's market is too big to do.

We can only say that the only thing I can do is to keep the old customers, so this is the most important thing.

In some small businesses, reporters found that signing the bill or not signing the bill is a problem.

Tengwu is a company that exports outdoor leisure products to Europe and America.

Tong Jing, general manager of Ningbo tengpo Leisure Products Co., Ltd.

Tong Jing: not very good.

Reporter: why?

Tong Jing: because the guests are more sensitive to price.

As in previous years, there should be some orders in August. There are some customers who can basically decide what to do this season. But this year, in August, it is decided that the guests who really make the final decision are not too many.

At present, 100% of the confirmed orders may only account for 30% or 40%.

But even if the 30%-40% order can be determined, signing or not signing will also make the company very entangled.

Tong Jing: that is to say, between money making and not making money, but if you want to face the impact of exchange rate or the floating of raw materials, it is difficult for you to grasp the final list to make money or not to make money.

However, as we now have a production oriented enterprise, we have to consider one. If there is no order, how can workers maintain such a state is very contradictory.

We can see that under the multiple pressures of exchange rate fluctuations, raw material prices fluctuating, and labor shortages, Ningbo's foreign trade enterprises can not laugh at orders.

Behind the hard order, actually reveals a survival state of enterprises in the post financial crisis era. How does the foreign trade authorities view this change? What situation will the export enterprises face in the second half of the year? We interviewed Ding Haibin, deputy director of Ningbo foreign trade and Economic Cooperation Bureau.

Ding Haibin, deputy director of Ningbo Municipal Bureau of foreign trade and economic cooperation

Ding Haibin: many enterprises still have to deal with the whole industrial chain. Now some of them have not returned to normal level. So the first reason why they dare not take part is that it can not guarantee delivery on time. The second reason for the order is that enterprises are also choosing good lists, and they are more effective. Therefore, they are also taking the initiative to eliminate some commodities, which are low value-added products.

Ding Haibin, deputy director of the Ningbo Municipal Bureau of foreign trade and economic cooperation, told reporters that such a "no order" situation today does show that the enterprises encountered new difficulties during the "post financial crisis" period.

Ding Haibin: it should be said that this year's business situation is generally worse than last year, because last year, in fact, it is the most difficult, our sales volume and export volume are declining, but one is raw material prices are relatively low, and the employment situation is also very good. At the same time, our government should also say that a lot of measures have been introduced to encourage and encourage. In this case, many enterprises export the profit margins of their products.

But this year, because of a lot of changes, such as the RMB began in June 21st, we gained a few RMB in a few days.

The price of raw materials is fluctuating this year. It has consumed some of its cost in a relatively high position, plus our wages this year. The cost of employment has generally increased by more than 15%. Some enterprises may have increased by 20%.

There is no doubt that these new difficulties will further test the wisdom of business management.

In the interview, reporters saw that some enterprises have turned their attention from the past European and American markets to other emerging markets.

Wang Yulong: We used to have a relatively large proportion of Europe before 2009. There were about 500 thousand units. The major recession that we had at that time was probably the same as Europe.

Later, we focused on developing the market of Middle East Africa and the market in South America, including our Brazil, which we used to analyze whether he was 300 thousand or 400 thousand, but today he has arrived at the about 1000000 market.

Other enterprises, in the case of appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, adjust the import and export structure of enterprises.

Wang Dingying: RMB appreciation will definitely have advantages for imports, so we are doing better in import expansion this year.

Therefore, it is also said that exports are insufficient to import to make up for such a train of thought, so we are going to import more from 1 to June than we did last year.

In response, Ningbo's government is also making structural adjustments to foreign trade.

Ding Haibin: ten years ago, textile and clothing occupied half of us, dominated by light textile products. Now it has been adjusted to our mechanical and electrical products.

Among electromechanical products, many of us have already won the national championship.

For the second half of Ningbo's export situation, Ding Haibin judged this way.

Ding Haibin: I think the growth rate of the second half of this year will definitely come down. On the one hand, the base of last year is relatively high in the second half of the year, and the debt crisis of second European countries and other factors, so I think the growth rate of the whole year is definitely lower than that of now. However, from the current situation, we still have confidence in the relatively fast recovery growth throughout the year.

Li Jian, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute.

Reporter: do you feel that the worst time has passed since the export of foreign trade?

Li Jian: at worst, it should be the first half of last year. Now it should be over.

Reporter: we also found in the interview that it is very interesting that businesses can generally receive orders this year, but signing bills is very difficult.

Li Jian: it can be said that on the one hand, we can not be blindly optimistic about the foreign trade agreement.

On the other hand, this is actually a good thing. This is a kind of pressure. This kind of pressure will make our enterprises unable to satisfy the low price competition as before.

Many importers and exporters mainly rely on quantity to win and rely on quantity to realize their profits and realize their development. It is possible to do so in a certain stage of development. After the financial crisis, at present, such an international economic and trade pattern has changed, China has become the first export power, and our growth space is becoming smaller and smaller.

Reporter: in the process of interview, some enterprises talked with us, that is to say, this year's market is a bit like this year's weather, let people say, can not adapt.

Then, companies may wish to say that the market environment, including policies, are relatively stable. Do you think this stability can be achieved? If there are variables, where are the biggest variables?

Li Jian: now I think the basic policy of the state supporting foreign trade development is stable.

Of course, last year, in order to cope with the financial crisis, there may be some temporary measures to ensure growth. This may gradually fade out, and some may make some fine-tuning. For example, we need to save energy and reduce emissions. We have some exports of high energy consumption, high pollution and resource goods, or some high and relatively high commodity exports. Some policies may still be readjustment, but this effect on the whole foreign trade situation should not be very large. This enterprise should say that the policy space for business development should be stable.

Half an hour observation: {page_break}

Now the order difficulties encountered by these export enterprises remind us that the recovery of orders and the improvement of foreign trade data do not mean that the world economy has already embarked on the road of full recovery. For export enterprises, the post financial crisis era is still a difficult and long process, and the test and challenge are far from over.

Before the financial crisis, we caught up with the opportunities brought by economic globalization and great international industrial pfer, and ushered in a round of economic prosperity.

But at the beginning, many competitive advantages have gradually weakened in the crisis, and relatively low and sufficient labor force has been tense, and the relatively stable price and exchange rate system has been fluctuating. More importantly, the value coordinate system used by export enterprises has been disrupted.

It is difficult to sign orders, indicating that many enterprises are not suited to the new foreign trade environment, especially those who enter the market by low technology content, low profit and low price. Even though they have survived the cold winter, they feel the pressure is increasing.

There is no panacea for this change, but we believe that only if we anticipate these changes as soon as possible and adjust them as soon as possible, can export enterprises go further in the post crisis era.