Property Market "Undercurrent Surging": Can We Control The "Policy Weapon" Again?

Local housing prices "rise", the paction "

"Xinhua viewpoint" reporter recently found that, unlike before, some government departments in recent years have taken the same attitude to the property market: resolutely carry out the regulation.

Some people even said: rather not "golden nine silver ten", but also to stabilize prices.

What people are concerned about is

What is the nature of "warming up" at present?

"Beijing property market volume surge", "Guangzhou surprise day disc", "Fuzhou overnight queuing" in recent years, the dormant property market began to agitated, the real and false news is endless, and constantly stimulate the nerves of the market.

How to view the current property market's "warming up"? Is it a flash in the pan or is it going back to the rally?

An obvious fact is that after half a year's regulation and control, the rigid demand for property market accumulation, such as the proximity to school and the concentration of marriage, has begun to be released.

In August, the average contract price of newly built commercial housing in ten districts of Guangzhou was 12056 yuan / square meter, up 16% from the same period last year.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the sales volume of the national commercial housing in August was 68 million 860 thousand square meters, although it was 10.1% lower than that of the previous year, but the ring was 6.5% higher than that in July.

Zhongyuan Real Estate senior analysts believe that the market has recently been active, and the policy of a short "Silence", part of the real estate sales promotion, and the demand for "exploratory market" related.

Of course, there are also many developers who use the upcoming "golden nine silver ten" to cheer up the sluggish property market, and "artificial warming" has been repeatedly staged in the previous regulation.

Taking Shanghai as an example, the statistics of Zhongyuan Real estate show that in August, the new housing sales area in the city was 139 thousand and 600 square meters, an increase of 30.9% in July, but 41.9% in the same period.

Cai Weimin, a real estate expert who studied the mainland property market for many years, has counted a hot city. "At present, there are about 650 flats in sale, of which 110 are depreciating, 10-20 of which are going up, and the rest prices remain unchanged. A small part is a tentative price increase."

Behind the active market of a few high-grade real estate market is the resurgence of the sensitive investors.

Only rigid demand, housing prices remain stable; if excessive investment in speculative demand, house prices will be impacted, this is the basic market logic.

Ceng Yesong, a researcher at the Central Party school, reminded that "warming up" is the beginning of a long-term good trend. At present, the rebound of a few turnover is only seasonal, and the property market is still sensitive and fragile.

Under the pressure of pre regulation and control, from speculators to real estate developers, shivering has passed, and some have begun to gamble for future appreciation expectations.

Property market return to reason, obviously still need to increase regulation and control, strengthen executive power.

What will be the "ups and downs" in the aftermarket?

House prices are rising or falling?

"Bearish" side believes that with the continuous regulation, the supply will increase significantly in the second half of the year, and the pressure of Housing enterprises will also intensify. These two will strengthen the expected price reduction.

Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Director Cheng analysis shows that in the second quarter of this year, the new commercial housing area has reached 377 million square meters, and the difference between the new construction area and the sales area has reached 140 million 830 thousand square meters, both of which are the highest in recent years.

Thus, we will see the climax of residential supply in the coming half year.

Statistics also show that from 1 to August this year, the real estate development enterprises this year, the source of funds is 44363 billion yuan, the growth rate has dropped for 8 consecutive months.

From the perspective of capital structure, the growth rate of domestic loans, deposits and advance sales has been significantly reduced, and the proportion of enterprises' self financing has increased significantly. The debt ratio of listed housing enterprises has also improved rapidly, and the capital chain of Housing enterprises is obviously tightening.

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But on the other hand, the "bullish" side believes that the "dark fire" of rising housing prices has been ignited.

In September, Guangzhou, Panyu, Shanghai, Huangpu River and other plots created a new high price of local residential land.

"In 2009, the three markets of capital, land and housing pushed each other up, resulting in soaring housing prices. This regulation has tightened the financing channels for housing companies, but we must guard against the rise in flour prices and raise the expected price of bread."

Chen Shiling, general manager of Yongqing housing company, said.

In addition, the problem of "structural imbalance" in the supply of housing market has not yet been solved. The operating rate of affordable housing and shanty towns pformation in many provinces and municipalities from 1 to July is lower than the national average level, and the operating rate in some areas is only 38%.

Huayuan Real Estate chairman Ren Zhiqiang (blog) believes that if the affordable housing tasks can be completed, at least more than 20% of the commercial housing can be diverted to buy the crowd. If the affordable housing is not seen, "they will think that if there is no hope for the future, they will find the market again, so that the rebound force exists."

"At present, the degree of market adjustment is far from the goal of the regulatory policy itself, or the expectation of the people on the control effect."

Zhu Zhongyi, vice president of China Real Estate Association, said.

Experts pointed out that the hot city prices remain high data show that regulatory policies in the short term although the initial results, but the healthy development of the real estate market is still facing certain uncertainties, and how to stabilize market expectations is a test of whether the new round of regulation is effective.

Should there be a "policy weapon" in the prevention of retaliatory rise?

At present, the property market has ushered in the traditional sense of selling season. Can the "golden nine silver ten" reappear in previous years? For this, developers claim that "the next opening will at least rise by 10%."

And some hot city real estate management personnel said: "we have enough policy bullets, rather than golden nine silver ten, also can not let house price retaliatory rise!"

Shanghai has recently implemented relevant regulations to tighten administrative supervision over the market entry of high priced real estate projects: "focus review" on the sales plan of high priced real estate, and prohibit "sitting at the starting price".

"Do not want land prices and housing prices too high, do not want the two increase is too large."

Pang Yuan, deputy director of Shanghai Housing Authority, said.

Some well-known sales and planning agencies in China are also releasing the signal: high priced real estate is entering the market at this time.

Control of high priced real estate market, after all, is only an expedient measure.

China's housing prices have been rising for several years, during which they have experienced two rounds of strict regulation and control. However, housing prices such as rubber balls generally "shoot higher and higher" are not enough. How can the property market regulation fundamentally break the "repeated ups and down" cycle?

First of all, continue to strictly control the "money".

At the purchasing side, we must maintain a high pressure to curb speculative investment demand.

Reporters learned that the recent surge in housing prices in Beijing Tianjin Hebei suburban mortgage policy tightened further, some of the "inflated" housing prices then fell.

At the end of development, besides the strict control of bank loans and capital market financing, the supervision of pre-sale funds needs to be strengthened.

Second, ensure adequate supply of flour and bread.

In early September, the Shanghai Housing Authority issued a circular reiterated that "30 thousand square meters of property must be sold on a one-time sale" and other provisions.

In terms of land, the completion situation in the first half of the year is not optimistic, but in some areas it is only three or four.

The pressure on land supply increased after the three quarter, which is crucial to the market impact.

Third, the "accountability" procedure must have a substantive start.

In April this year, the "ten countries" explicitly put forward "establishing an assessment accountability mechanism".

Recently, the relevant departments have clarified the "timetable" of accountability for the ineffective disposal of idle land and the lagging behind of affordable housing.

The health of the housing market is not only related to the operation of the economy, but also to the big problem of people's livelihood.

Chen Sheng, vice president of the China Index Research Institute and many other experts, said that faced with the wrestling game of all parties, the recent two regulation topics such as property tax have once again attracted high attention.

New policy tools to consolidate the existing regulatory results, reflecting the market's expectations for the regulation of the property market.