People Say ICE Cotton: ICE Cotton Festival First Suppression Later Yang

　　 ICE cotton Festival falls and rebound follows China's rhythm

During the holiday season, foreign merchandise showed strong overall strength, and some commodities first suppressed and then rose. Last Friday, the stock index rose sharply, the US dollar index fell below 80, the value of the US dollar depreciated sharply, and the US stock went strong. In terms of cotton, the ICE cotton fell 100 cents during the holiday season. It recovered on Friday and lost part of the land. CFTC's net long lead rate dropped sharply. The international cotton market is paying more attention to the trend of China, and is obviously lower than the domestic cotton price.

The 25 day average price reached 24000 yuan, and the price of electronic matching cotton reached two yuan trading day, and the contracts reached 22600 yuan. The price of cotton futures was up to 1000 yuan, and the price of seed cotton reached 5 yuan / kg. The cost price was around 22000 yuan, and the price of cotton futures was about 21600 yuan before the meeting. Compared with the surrounding market, it showed an underestimation. Today, the price of cotton seed is showing a rising trend. But the state again sells 400 thousand tons to make up for the shortage of panic in the market before the new flower market. Today, a number of ministries and commissions have jointly held a cotton conference, and the agricultural development bank loan has not yet been put in place. Before the end of the last trading day, Zhengjie cotton continued to soar, and the transaction and prices reached a record high.

From the operational level, at present, it is advisable to win more profits or raise profits. Short-term pursuit Make up the market and pay close attention to it. Policy risk The position of funds is closely related. 23000 of the companies are paying close attention to hedging opportunities. (pioneering futures Dong Shuangwei)

ICE cotton 97 cents / pound support verified

On Friday, it benefited from the surge of stock market, gold price and crude oil price, as well as the weakening of the US dollar. At the same time, the purchase price of China's seed cotton in the largest cotton production, consumption and importing countries continued to rise sharply. The purchase of funds and consumption made ICE cotton get rid of the sharp drop of two days. The support of the 97 cent / pound contract in December was verified, and the final closing rate was 2.76 cents to 99.93 cents / pound, once again challenging the pressure level of 100 cents / pound. At present, global inventory is tight and consumption is still strong, and the highest transaction price of China's national cotton reserves is close to 28000 yuan / ton, which may stimulate the fund to buy. At the same time, China's cotton prices outshine each other, resulting in the difference in cotton prices between China and the us close to 3000 yuan / ton, and arbitrage transactions that buy ICE to sell ZCE will be stimulated, which may continue to push up the price of ICE cotton. But it is rumoured that the Chinese government may discuss regulatory measures at the 27 Cotton Conference, and the market is facing policy risks.

Technically, cotton rebounded on Friday ICE cotton futures, December contract 97 cents / pound and 13 day average line support was verified, the average system maintained a good long rise in the ranking, the long-term upward trend will continue. However, the adhesion of KD to MACD index has formed a downward trend in the gap. Meanwhile, the red column of MACD index has been continuously shortened, and cotton prices are facing greater callback pressure. It is advisable to be cautious about bullish ICE cotton and pay attention to the support position of 97 cents / pound in December. If such support fails, the rally will come to an end. Otherwise, the December contract is expected to challenge the historical high pressure point of 94/95 114 cents / pound.

25, 26, China's cotton price rose sharply from 925 yuan to 22620 yuan / ton, while China's seed cotton purchase price rose sharply during the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, and the cost of new cotton broke through 23000 yuan / ton. Some acquisition companies compared the cost and zhengmian price to the cotton market in Zhengzhou cotton market to buy cotton and cotton, becoming a new bullish force, which could make Zheng cotton prices continue to rise. But the arbitrage deal from buying ICE to sell ZCE will pose a new pressure on cotton prices. Prudently rising bullish holdings should be more appropriate. (Wanda futures Urumqi Sales Department Du Ying)