Sino US Dispute Over RMB Exchange Rate

Sino US RMB rate The dispute has been around for a long time. U.S.A Senior officials and parliamentarians are increasing the pressure on the RMB exchange rate policy. In September 24th, the house of Representatives fundraising committee voted for a special tariff aimed at underestimating the exchange rate of the local currency.

Experts say the so-called special tariff act is actually just an American. Political games 。 With the advent of the mid-term elections, the United States or China will be more aggressive. The issue of intellectual property rights is likely to become another issue for the United States to exert pressure on China after the RMB exchange rate.

Difficult to enact special tariff materials

The RMB exchange rate has hit a new high for several consecutive trading days. Even so, it is still difficult to ease the pressure from the United States. In September 24th, the house of Representatives fundraising committee voted for a special tariff aimed at underestimating the exchange rate of the local currency. It is expected that this bill will be voted at the house of representatives in the house of Representatives as early as this week. According to the legislative process of the United States, if the house of Representatives votes, the bill will enter the Senate legislative process.

Sun Huayu, director of the China International Monetary Research Center, said in an interview with the economic reference daily that at present, the bill has been supported by 143 members of the house of Representatives, but it must be approved by the house of representatives with 435 members. The bill must be supported by more than half, or at least 218 members. Even if the house is passed, the bill will finally come into effect, and it will need Senate approval and presidential approval.

"But if we fail to vote this week, it is certain that the United States will not carry out legislation on this issue until the mid-term elections in November 2nd." Sun Huayu said, "considering that China is the third largest import market in the United States and is the fastest growing import market, if China" treats its people with its own way of governing people ", the United States will be hurt, believing that US political leaders will handle the draft rationally. It is unlikely that the draft legislation will eventually become a formal law. "

In an interview with the economic reference daily, Tu Xinquan, vice president of China WT O Research Institute of foreign trade and economics university, said that the possibility of passing the bill in the house of Representatives is relatively large, but it is likely to be blocked in the Senate. Tu Xinquan said, generally speaking, the trend of trade protectionism in the US house is quite obvious. The previous unfavorable legislation is mostly from the house of Representatives, so the special tariff act is likely to pass through the house of Representatives. However, the Senate is hard to pass.

Tu Xin Quan said that from the legal point of view of the WT O rule, to pass the bill, the United States needs to prove that China underestimated the exchange rate specifically for the purpose of expanding exports. On the one hand, it involves the judgement of China's undervalued exchange rate, and on the other hand, how to prove that China's undervalued exchange rate is aimed at expanding exports. Obama's government is also very clear about the two aspects of proof. Therefore, several times before it was unwilling to recognize China as a "currency manipulator".

Jin Canrong, vice president of Renmin University of China University of International Relations, told the economic reference daily that even if the United States Senate could pass the bill, Obama would weigh the pros and cons, and it was estimated that it would not be signed. Because once the bill is signed, trade wars between China and the United States will break out, which is not good for the United States.

In fact, there are many voices from the United States. Dozens of agricultural and business organizations in the United States jointly urged Congress not to pass a special tariff on China's RMB exchange rate on 14 March. In a letter to Congress, 36 industry organizations, including the National Committee of the US China trade, the American Soybean Association and the American Meat Institute, said: "we strongly oppose the use of anti-dumping or countervailing duty laws to deal with the currency problem that has been disturbing for several years". The proposal on the RMB exchange rate will "make the United States violate its commitments to WTO rules".

Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute, said that even if the probability of passing the special bill is very low, China must prepare for the worst and prepare for the worst. China should prepare corresponding measures to reduce the impact on China's exports once the bill is passed. {page_break}

Winning votes, the United States or having a more aggressive attitude towards China.

"Putting pressure on the renminbi is only a political game in the United States, not at all for the sake of economy." Jin Canrong said that at present, the United States is facing two most important problems. One is the mid-term elections approaching, and the two is the jobless growth of the US economy. In order to relieve the enormous political pressure, American politicians put pressure on China in an effort to shirk responsibility, win public opinion and win votes.

Jin Canrong said that before the mid-term elections in the United States, the United States will continue to exert pressure on the RMB. Even after the end of the mid-term elections, we must look at the employment situation in the United States. If employment is still not optimistic, the pressure exerted by the United States on China will not be reduced.

Zhao Qingming, senior researcher of China Construction Bank, told reporters in the economic reference daily that the recent hearing and vote on the RMB exchange rate by the US House raising committee were actually a farce. After the closing of the US mid-term elections, "farce" will naturally die down.

"Politically, the two parties in the United States want to raise the appearance rate of the RMB exchange rate issue for the mid-term elections. In the economic aspect, the slow recovery of the United States, the high unemployment rate and the risk of the two dip in the economy are all the background of the proposed and promoted bill." Sun Huayu pointed out.

In addition to the stick of "currency manipulator", antidumping, countervailing and other traditional tools have been used by the US in recent times. In September 21st, the US Department of Commerce made an affirmative final ruling on the "double reverse" of China's US coated paper. In a very recent case, the US Court of international trade has ruled that the United States has no basis for the investigation of the "double reverse" of Chinese products. However, the United States is still "messing around". In determining that China is a non market economy country, it still uses two trade remedy measures, namely, anti-dumping and countervailing measures, to increase the rate of dumping and subsidy and impose high tariffs.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, since 2007, the United States has launched "double anti" investigation and trade remedy measures for many products in China, including 15 kinds of products, including standard steel pipes, popular pipes and steel grid plates. Since 2007, the total amount involved has reached nearly 7 billion US dollars, accounting for 1/3 of China's exports to the United States.

Insiders pointed out that the pressure on China in the field of traditional trade seems to be increasing. Recently, the United States has also prosecuted WT O for China. All this shows that the United States will continue to take a more tough line against China before the mid-term elections in November.

Jin Canrong pointed out that it is worth noting that during the UN General Assembly, Obama also expressed a lot of dissatisfaction with China's intellectual property rights issue. The issue of intellectual property rights is likely to become another issue for the United States to put pressure on China after the RMB exchange rate issue.

No trade war between China and the United States will happen.

Although Sino US economic and trade disputes will intensify, most experts say that these disputes will not rise to a trade war between the two countries.

Jin Canrong pointed out that the Sino US market is a game of stock and increment for each other. Although China's exports to the US are large in stock, China's export growth to the US has begun to slow down from an incremental perspective, while for the US's exports, China is expanding at a rate of 30% per year. According to statistics, from 2001 to 2007, the total export volume of the United States increased by 30%, and its exports to China increased by 100%. "It can be said that the United States has just begun to taste the sweetness of the Chinese market and will not abandon it easily."

Tu Xin Quan also said that it is impossible for China and the us to trigger a trade war and dialogue is the way to resolve disputes. Between China and the United States, it is possible to "thunder big and rain little" and maintain the trend of "fighting without breaking". If the US repeatedly violates the WT O rules, China will actively appeal to settle disputes at the international organization level.

B usinessWeek columnist Peter Koi (P eter C oy) commented in September 24th that if the United States violates the provisions of WT O to force the renminbi to appreciate, it may bring multiple risks to itself, including the trade war between China and the United States. China moves cautiously in the framework of WT O, and the United States should follow the example of the world. If the United States punishes China in violation of the provisions of WT O, the United States will face multiple risks, including trade wars, loss of support from other countries and destruction of decades of hard working free trade system.

Li Yushi, vice president of the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with reporters that the economic structure and development status of China and the United States have given each other unprecedented high degree of economic dependence and degree of restriction. If Americans do not import goods from China, they have to import goods from other emerging economies. The development level of China's manufacturing industry is obvious compared with other emerging economies, and more and more Chinese enterprises offer high price performance products. Abandoning such a choice is not good for America. Moreover, the world economy is no longer the dominant era of the United States.

Experts said that Sino US relations have entered a very mature stage. Despite the existence of conflicts of interest and frictions, there will be no major changes in bilateral economic and trade patterns in 2010. China's "peaceful rise" in the era of globalization is the process of continuous integration with global interests and objectives, and is a complex interaction process that is constantly adjusting to and adjusting to trading partners such as the United States. The positive interaction between China and the United States is not only conducive to the two countries, but also to the development of the world.