The Fundamentals Are Good, PTA Is Not Afraid Of Raising Interest Rates.

1. Interest rate hikes have little effect and crude oil prices rise.

The central bank unexpectedly raised the benchmark interest rate for Renminbi deposits and loans, triggering fears of slowing demand for raw materials. Crude oil fell sharply at $3.59 on the 19 day of NYMEX11, closing at $79.49, and slumping more than 4%, the biggest one-day drop in nearly 8 months.

However, the next day, the ICE Brent crude oil futures rebounded sharply on the previous day, a sharp rebound of 4%, on the 20 day in early trading rose more than 1 U.S. dollars / barrel.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its report on Wednesday, saying that as of October 15th, the United States

In October 15th (EST), the US Department of Commerce announced that retail sales in the US increased by 0.6% over the seasonally adjusted quarter in September, slightly higher than the market forecast of 0.5%, the three consecutive month of growth, the largest increase since March, and the growth rate from 4.1% to 7.3% over the same period, indicating that the consumption expenditure in the third quarter continues to recover.

In addition, crude oil prices will continue to rise as the Federal Reserve continues its quantitative easing monetary policy, backed by the extreme cold weather in the northern hemisphere, and PX and PTA will follow suit.

Two.

The 700 thousand tons / year PX installation of Dalian Fu Jia Da Hua plant is scheduled to be shut down on Wednesday afternoon due to faulty equipment. The estimated time of parking is about 10 days.

CNOOC Huizhou 840 thousand tons / year PX plant on Tuesday failed to operate due to the fault load and is now recovering.

The price of PX will continue to soar due to the failure of two important PX installations in the country to affect PX production in October.

On the 19 day, the closing price of Asian PX rose 25 US dollars / ton to FOB Korea 1232 US dollars / ton, CFR Taiwan 1247 US dollars / ton; us PX closing price stabilized at FOB US Gulf 1170 US dollars / ton; European closing price rose 25 US dollars / ton to FOB Rotterdam 1165 US dollars / ton.

At present, the profit margins of polyester and polyester products remain at 2500-3000 yuan / ton.

Although production and marketing declined slightly, profit margins did not decrease.

In addition, driven by profit and market demand, the start-up rate of polyester enterprises has been maintained at over 80%. According to statistics released by the Statistics Bureau, the domestic polyester production in August was 1128936 tons, a 7.91% increase over July, representing an increase of 11% over the same period last year.

Three, overhauling overhaul, PTA or facing insufficient supply situation

All along, the high profits of PTA have driven many new capacity to start. However, the current PTA market does not exist the malpractice of "high startup rate and high inventory". Instead, the PTA device has been overhauled, the inventory of products has been reduced, and the market supply has been tense.

India MITSUBISHI chemical company has a capacity of 800 thousand tons / year, and the PTA device in Haldia stopped unexpectedly due to reactor failure in August 7th. Although it was restarted in October 8th, it has not yet been produced.

The 450 thousand ton / year PTA plant of Samsung petrochemical in Ulsan was restarted in October 12th after a 10 day shutdown and maintenance, which was closed in October 2nd.

Sinopec (600028) Shanghai petrochemical production capacity of 400 thousand tons / year PTA device, scheduled for October, routine maintenance, maintenance time of two weeks.

Ningbo's Taiwan production capacity of 600 thousand tons PTA unit began to stop maintenance in October 7th, the overhaul plan for about 15 days.

BP Zhuhai 2 line 900 thousand tons PTA device began to stop maintenance in October 12th. The planned maintenance time is about a week.

From the new capacity of polyester and PTA, the production capacity of polyester is obviously faster than that of PTA.

From the perspective of polyester productivity growth, the new polyester production capacity has increased to about 3000000 tons this year, and the actual production has also been 3 million tons. From the end of August to October, about 1 million 650 thousand tons of new polyester production capacity was put into operation.

And PTA production capacity is relatively slow, this year only to add Jialong and Han Bang two sets of PTA total of 1 million 200 thousand tons, polyester production capacity growth is obviously faster than PTA, PTA supply and demand relations will be improved, and polyester production and sales situation will also lead to the PTA market demand, PTA price is expected to further stretch.

Four, cotton prices continue to rise, driving up the price of PTA.

The 19 day of the end of the national cotton throwing and storage officially announced the first two batches of the year, the total amount of 1 million tons of throwing cotton store came to a close.

With the arrival of the end of the dumping, the textile enterprises rush to buy. The 18, 19 and two days' throw and storage weighted paction price rose 1883 yuan to 24037 yuan / ton, and the 328 class paction price rose 1904 yuan to 24660 yuan / ton (net weight).

One of the downstream products of PTA is polyester staple, which belongs to textile raw materials and cotton. Its price relationship will affect the amount of textile materials used in each of them, thus affecting the market demand for PTA.

At present, with the continuous rise of cotton prices, the market of polyester staple fiber has also been improved. On the 20 day, the main factory price of 1.4D polyester short is reported to be 12800-13200 yuan / ton, of which Jiangnan polyester and short newspaper is 13200 yuan / ton, and the Far East newspaper is 13210 yuan / ton outside the province, Huahong reported 13300 yuan / ton outside the province.

The rising price of cotton stimulates the market's consumption of polyester staple fibers, and also drives the price of PTA up.

To sum up, I believe that the PTA will continue to rise in the late stage.