Domestic Gasoline And Diesel Prices Rose &Nbsp Again, To A Record High.

Oil prices have pushed up inflation expectations, and many scholars agree to increase inflation tolerance.

In the context of the international crude oil price breaking through 80 US dollars / barrel, at 0:00 on October 26th,

At the same time, the price of domestic edible oil has also risen from a rising trend due to the sharp rise in the price of oils and fats in the international market.

The monitoring of the national grain and Oil Information Center showed that the factory price of first class soybean oil in coastal areas was concentrated at 7100 yuan / ton in early July this year, and rose to about 7900 yuan / ton by the end of August. After entering September, the factory price of first class soybean oil in coastal areas rose to around 9300 yuan / ton, which rose 31% compared with the beginning of July.

The rise of both refined oil and edible oil has attracted the attention of the industry.

Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of galaxy securities, said in an interview with the economic reference daily, 25, that the depreciation of the US dollar has stimulated the sharp rise in international commodity prices for a period of time. It will cause some import inflationary pressure on China and is worth vigilant.

At present, China is the second largest consumer and importer of crude oil in the world, and is also the largest importer of oil and soybeans in the world.

Among them, the foreign dependence of China's crude oil has exceeded 53%, while the consumption of edible oil to the international market is more than 60%.

Obviously, the rise of domestic refined oil and edible oil is inevitably influenced by the international market.

"On the one hand, the issuance of US dollars is increasing. In the long run, it is bound to depreciate. International commodities are generally priced in US dollars, so it is definitely a rising trend. On the other hand, a large number of US dollars have not entered the real economy, but have entered the bulk commodity market, and speculation has further boosted prices."

Zuo Xiaolei said.

Zuo Xiaolei believes that not only oil and oil, other commodities on the world are also facing a rising trend, although the impact of the rise in the price of refined oil and edible oil is difficult to quantify, but once the price rise factors are superimposed with other factors, the impact of imported inflation can not be underestimated.

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At the beginning of the year, the Chinese government set the target of controlling the total consumer price level (CPI) by 3% over the same period of last year. However, the CPI increase this year showed a trend of quarterly rise. In September, CPI grew by 3.6% over the same period last year. This is the three consecutive month that CPI grew by 3% over the same period last year. It is difficult to achieve the goal of price regulation.

In Zuo Xiaolei's view, it is not so important for the government to finish this year's price increase below 3%.

She said there was no need for the government to make the CPI rise so dead.

To some extent, imported inflation is inevitable.

In terms of specific indicators, the affordability of China's economy should also be considered as a consideration for price regulation.

"As long as China's economy is growing by more than 8%, even if CPI breaks 4% this year, it will be no big deal.

Of course, the side effects of excessive currency issuance, especially the depreciation of the US dollar, will be gradually released. The government should pay attention to the problems that may arise in the future.

Zuo Xiaolei said.

In response, a number of experts suggested that China should increase its tolerance of inflation.

For example, the Academy of Social Sciences said in a report that it could consider raising the target of CPI regulation to around 4%, and economist Li Yining also suggested that inflation should be mentioned between 4% and 4.5%.

However, these proposals failed to receive official formal response.

Regarding the price adjustment of refined oil, the responsible person of the price department of the national development and Reform Commission said that although the domestic oil price increase may affect the social price expectation to a certain extent, the actual effect of the refined oil price adjustment on the domestic price level is very small.

As for the rise of edible oil prices, Shang Qiangmin, director of the national grain and oil information center, said that no price hype was taken. The impact of the price rise of oil and oil has dual nature. On the one hand, the price increase has caused welfare losses to domestic consumers. At the present stage, it has brought greater inflationary pressure to the domestic market; on the other hand, it is conducive to stimulating the expansion of oil production at home and abroad, and promoting the increase of oil and oil output, which is beneficial to the realization of long-term supply safety.