How Long Will Gold Bull Market Last?

Since August, the price of gold has gone out of the surging bull market, and gold prices have been highly collate recently.

The US dollar depreciation, inflation expectations, spot demand, speculative capital, central bank purchase, and the Federal Reserve monetary policy have contributed to the sustained rise in gold since August.

Lesson one: how far can gold go?

Since August, the price of gold has gone out of the surging bull market. After breaking through the previous historical highs, the target of $1300 / ounce, which is generally expected to reach a high level at the end of the year, is easily relaxed, and has reached a record high of 1387 US dollars / ounce.

In this regard, Jiao Yu analysis, the current bull market situation is mainly due to the weak real estate data and the increase in the number of unemployed Americans, which reflects from the side that the US economy is relatively weak, while gold is priced in US dollars, and the depreciation of the US dollar has a boost to gold.

In addition, the market is worried that major industrial countries may implement more relaxed monetary policy, which will lead to currency devaluation and inflation rate rise, creating a continuous rise in gold prices since August.

But after the recent increase in China's interest rate, the international gold price should fall back. What's the future of the gold price? Coke analysis shows that after a continuous rise, the gold price will be formed in the short term, but the bull market in the medium and long term will remain unchanged.

He believes that the rise in gold prices is mainly a direct hedge against the risk of excessive liquidity in the US dollar.

Therefore, it is expected that the resumption of quantitative easing will still be an important driving force for the gold market to continue to rise in the future.

Therefore, at this stage, the fall in gold prices is still a normal adjustment in the long-term upward trend.

In the context of low global interest rates and high debt, gold price adjustment is still providing a good buying opportunity for the investment gold market.

The second lesson: how to judge the price of gold?

Li Jianglin pointed out that the fundamental factors determining the price of gold are supply and demand.

Supply and demand factors are the fundamental reasons that affect the fluctuation of gold prices.

Among them, the impact of supply factors mainly includes changes in gold stock, changes in the cost of new gold mining, the political, military and economic changes in the gold producing countries, and the dumping of gold reserves in the central bank.

From a global perspective, gold production has been decreasing in recent years, and gold resources have been decreasing year by year with the continuous exploitation, and the cost of mining is increasing. At the same time, the demand for gold in the global market, especially in emerging countries, has increased. The gold market is still a seller's market, which is less than demand, and gold belongs to non renewable resources. Mining and supply can not rise blindly to meet the market demand. These factors lead to the gold price will continue to rise, and the future value of gold will be reflected more.

The strength of the US dollar is also an important factor affecting the price of gold, and there is a negative correlation between gold price and the US dollar.

Li Jianglin suggested that the financial crisis that broke out in the United States in 2008 caused the global economy to be in a slump for a long time. It also made other countries realize that the global economy was overly dependent on the instability of the US dollar, which gave gold the chance to shine again, because gold was a more stable currency than paper money. Although the restriction of gold supply made it impossible for us to return to the gold standard, as a partial substitution for the US dollar function, the gold market which was expanding is already rising.

Investors should adapt to this change. After that, the price of gold will be more dependent on its monetary attributes and commodity attributes will be the second.

However, this inverse relationship is only relative.

There are also geopolitical factors.

It is worth mentioning that the impact of the sudden political crisis on gold prices is more and more like a "pit station", playing a turning point role.

The Soviet Union's march into Afghanistan in 1980 did not lead to a big power conflict as expected. In addition, the US economic situation improved, and the price of gold fell, and entered a bear market from a bull market that has been in the 10 year.

In 1990, Iraq's march into Kuwait and subsequent Gulf War also temporarily lifted the price of gold temporarily and went out for a half year.

After "9. 11", gold prices kept rising for nearly two years.

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The third lesson: what are the gold investment varieties?

At present, the main financial management types of banks include paper gold, physical gold and gold options.

Paper gold is a kind of agency buying and selling service for gold and gold, which does not involve physical delivery of gold, but is recorded in the accounting books of commercial banks.

The paction cost is 0.8 to 1 yuan / gram, and the paction time is 24 hours.

Investment in physical gold includes investment gold bars, ornaments gold and collectible gold products.

Jiao Yu pointed out that the processing cost of gold bars is low, and all kinds of additional expenses are not high. Standardized gold bars can be bought and sold all over the world, and most countries and regions in the world do not levy paction taxes on gold pactions.

Moreover, gold is the 24 hour continuous quotation in the world, and gold prices can be obtained in all parts of the world.

It is worth mentioning that although investment gold bars are the most suitable varieties to invest in gold, they do not refer to the common commemorative gold bars and new year gold bars in the market.

"These gold bars belong to the" ornaments gold bars ", which sell at a much higher price than the international gold market, and they will be more discounted if they return to sell.

So before investing in gold bars, you should first learn to identify "investment gold bars" and "ornament gold bars".

"Jiao Yu said.

Gold ornaments belong to the category of consumer goods. Unless they are made together with other jewellery and made by masters of famous craft, there will be no fixed investment value. In the old gold acquisition center, even the gold ornaments purchased at a high price of 200 yuan / gram can only be sold as pure gold of 160 yuan / gram.

Recently, the collection of gold products is relatively hot.

In this regard, Jiao Yu said that the price volatility of collection gold was greatly influenced by speculation.

Take the Olympic gold and silver commemorative coin group as an example, the initial issue price was only eight thousand or nine thousand yuan, and after that, the highest price had reached 24000 yuan, and the market price has dropped to 12000 yuan.

If investors are unfortunate enough to intervene at a high point, it is natural to set them up.

Look at the gold option again.

The gold option was launched by the first bank of China.

The option itself is a more complex derivative than futures. It has a higher demand for investors' risk tolerance, investment experience and professional knowledge, so it is not suitable for most ordinary investors.

Because of this reason, it is difficult for banks to invest enough money to train professional teams for this niche product.

For the exchange gold financial variety, Jiao Yu said that the gold price quoted by the gold exchange and the futures exchange was based on the international gold price, and did not have the pricing power.

Referring to the fluctuation of international gold prices, placing orders is the current situation of domestic investors' participation in T+D and gold futures.

This paction mode leads to the fact that the price of domestic gold can not match the price of the international market, and often there is a big price deviation.

Moreover, the spot gold price fluctuation in the world gold market is continuous 24 hours from Monday to Friday (except for financial holidays).

The trading time of the Shanghai gold exchange and futures exchange is relatively fixed in China, which has created a great deal of time risk of paction prices.

In addition, there are also some advance payments made by the gold investment company.

Prepayment means that when an investor can buy or sell a certain amount of object according to different prepayment ratio, he chooses to pay the full amount of the price shown in the buying and selling system according to the prepaid payment system, or chooses the instant price of the trading system to sell or repurchase the paction for settlement.

Advance payment can be bought and sold for more than 24 hours and two ways.