Central Bank Issued A Report: Highly Concerned About Potential Inflationary Pressures

　　 In November 2nd, the people's Bank of China released the third quarter. monetary policy Executive report. The report said that the moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, while maintaining the continuity and stability of policies, we should foresight and flexibly adjust the policy focus, intensity and rhythm, and guide monetary conditions to gradually return from the anti crisis state to the normal level.

　　 "The uncertainty of price trend is bigger, we still need to strengthen the management of inflation expectations." The central bank said that the policy withdrawal of the economies was more cautious because of the uncertain factors of recovery. With the gradual expiry of the original stimulus measures, the developed economies began to introduce new economic stimulus measures, and the global liquidity and monetary conditions will continue to be loose, and a large amount of capital may flow into the fast growing emerging economies. Under this background, surplus funds must seek various ways and exports, and the potential inflationary pressures must be highly concerned.

In addition, the central bank pointed out that there is still structural upward pressure on prices. Current domestic labor force and Service industry As prices rise, the cost of resources and environmental protection increases, and the prices of resource products need to be straightened out, all of which may affect inflation expectations.

Regarding the macroeconomic situation, the central bank believes that the next stage of the global economy may present a slow recovery trend, China's economy will continue to grow steadily, the balance of payments will still maintain a larger surplus, the trade surplus of imports and exports will continue to increase, and foreign direct investment in China will flow into large quantities. Cross border capital arbitrage activities still exist, which may increase the fluctuation of China's international balance of payments operation through foreign trade, foreign investment and financial transmission channels.

Under the above background, the central bank said that the next stage will continue to implement moderately loose monetary policy, grasp the intensity, rhythm and key points of policy implementation, while maintaining continuity and stability of policies, while enhancing pertinence and flexibility. According to the requirements of the development of the situation, we should continue to guide monetary conditions to gradually return to normal level.

"According to the changes in the economic and financial situation and foreign exchange flows, we should comprehensively use various monetary policy tools to rationally arrange monetary policy instruments combination and term structure. Operation intensity We should strengthen liquidity management, maintain a reasonable and moderate liquidity in the banking system, and promote moderate growth in money and credit. " The central bank said.

In terms of credit policy, the central bank said it would seriously implement the credit policy of "helping and controlling", and adjust and optimize the credit structure. We must strictly control loans for industries with high energy consumption, high emission and overcapacity, implement differentiated housing policy, strengthen loan risk management of local government financing platform companies, and explore and establish and perfect the macro Prudential management system framework, and play its cross cyclical adverse wind adjustment function.

At the same time, the central bank pointed out in particular that it is necessary to improve the financial services of SMEs and expand the credit placement of SMEs as an important strategy for the development of credit operations by financial institutions in various banking institutions, so as to ensure that the growth rate of credit for small businesses is higher than that of all loans, and the increment is higher than that of the previous year. We should further expand the diversified financing channels for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and support the healthy development of SMEs. We should use various monetary policy tools flexibly, strengthen the guidance of credit policies, and promote the innovation of financial products.

For the RMB exchange rate, the central bank will continue to dynamically manage and adjust the RMB exchange rate fluctuation in accordance with the floating interval of the announced foreign exchange market, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. We will continue to promote the development of the foreign exchange market and enrich the tools of exchange rate risk management. At the same time, the central bank said it will continue to push forward the construction of the benchmark interest rate system in the money market, further expand the channels for direct financing of enterprises, speed up the development of the bond market, and actively and steadily promote the opening of the inter-bank bond market.

　　 The central bank also pointed out that since effective exchange rate is more scientific in measuring the exchange rate level, effective exchange rate adjustment will play a more important role in regulating import and export, current account and balance of payments than the bilateral exchange rate adjustment. At present, China's main trading partners show obvious diversification characteristics, and trade valuation currencies are also gradually diversified. Compared with the bilateral exchange rate, the effective exchange rate can represent the actual exchange rate of the enterprise's trade valuation and settlement, and has more reference significance for the enterprise's financial and business decision.