The Central Economic Work Conference Opened &Nbsp; &Nbsp; Stressed The Suppression Of Inflation Pressure.

In December 10th, Beijing clearance was washed.

Beijing West Hotel, West Chang'an Avenue, annual

The meeting is expected to last 3 days. The leaders of the Central Committee, the heads of provinces and municipalities, heads of ministries and commissions, and leaders of some state-owned enterprises participated in the meeting.

Unlike the past few years, the conference has summarized the work of "11th Five-Year", especially the work of last year. At the same time, the work of "12th Five-Year" has been deployed, especially in 2011.

One participant pointed out that the conference concluded that in the past five years, China has done some major events, especially in the past few years, and has done some stable and difficult tasks, which has laid a good foundation for a new step in the next step in the next 11th Five-Year years.

The economy is on the rise during the period of 12th Five-Year, but China's next development will encounter various risks and challenges at home and abroad.

To this end, the main line of "12th Five-Year" period is to accelerate the pformation of the mode of economic development, promote long-term and stable economic development, and maintain social harmony and stability on this basis.

It is reported that the national "12th Five-Year plan" has been preliminarily enacted, and has made large-scale research on the "12th Five-Year" plan. It has extensively solicited opinions from all sides, striving for more and more comprehensive reflection of the development of various industries and the needs of enterprises and people's livelihood.

The regulation of the year 12th Five-Year started with the whole 12th Five-Year main line.

According to a macroeconomic expert, the main content is "how to handle the relationship between maintaining stable and fast economic growth, adjusting structural adjustment and suppressing inflation pressure".

The suppression of inflationary pressure is not the same as the "managed inflation expectation" in 2010.

And some concerns about the 2011 economy and the potential for a sharp drop in foreign demand may not appear.

Bai Lichen, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), pointed out at the 2010 China International Chamber of Commerce in December 10th that 2011 was the opening year of 12th Five-Year. The external development environment was generally better than last year. Domestic investment and consumption is expected to achieve a relatively rapid growth. It is expected that economic growth will rise steadily after the first quarter, reaching around 9% in the whole year.

"While maintaining macroeconomic policies relatively stable, we should actively promote reforms in related fields, speed up economic structural adjustment and pformation of development mode, and lay a good foundation for medium and long-term economic development."

He said.

Policies to curb inflation or prudent regulation

According to an expert analysis of the relevant policy reports, next year's central regulation is different from this year, that is, last year, "managing inflation expectations". At present, the price increase has exceeded 3% of the regulation line, or even 5% in a single month. Therefore, it is not appropriate to implement the "management inflation expectations".

In view of this, the price regulation words in 2011 changed to "

In this way, the expression of regulation next year may be "how to deal with the relationship between maintaining stable and fast economic growth, adjusting structural adjustment and suppressing inflation pressure".

This is not the same as the December 2009 China Central Economic Conference, which put forward the 2010 "to deal with the steady and rapid economic development, readjust the economic structure and manage inflation expectations".

Some scholars believe that next year's economic growth is expected to decline, but the price increase will increase, maintaining price and economic indicators need a good collocation.

The National Bureau of statistics will announce the price and industrial figures in November, which is expected to be higher in December 11th than last month's 4.4% year-on-year growth rate.

But industry will continue to grow fairly fast.

Some institutions believe that China's price increase may reach 3.3% this year. The Central Political Bureau meeting put forward a prudent monetary policy in December 3rd, which is different from that of last year's "moderately easy monetary policy".

Li Daokui, a professor of Tsinghua University and a member of the monetary policy committee of the central bank, believes that the growth of China's economy will be around 10.3%-10.5% this year, and the consumer price increase (CPI) will exceed 3%.

Next year's economic growth will be about 9.5%-10%, and inflation will be above 3%, but not more than 5%.

So next year the economy will continue to grow rapidly without worrying too much.

But prices are likely to be "high before and low" next year.

"The first half is relatively tight, prices in the first half of this year are quite frightening, and the second half of this year is going on slowly."

Li Daokui predicted.

In view of this change, the central bank's monetary policy may be somewhat deflation.

The policy of "prudent monetary policy" may persist for quite a long time, and even turn to prudent monetary policy. If it is not a major accident, it will be appropriately tightened from a directional point of view.

Li Daokui made a warning to bank bankers in the December 10th China Economic Quarterly talks.

According to his analysis, from next year, the global economy will enter the post financial crisis era, because the global economy, especially the developed economies, is expected to rebound, and the US economy is likely to increase by 3% or even 3.5%.

But the pressure of global inflation will increase in the next year.

At the same time, China is also facing these problems.

The reasons for China's rising prices are mainly the cost of production in some areas, especially the cost of labor, as well as the input factors of international inflation.

However, in view of the fact that most of China's agricultural products are still in good supply, prices can be kept at a stable level.

But China's stock of money has exceeded 10 trillion dollars, making it the world's first.

If we expand the issue of money again, it is not a problem of inflationary pressure, but a financial risk.

Because of this, it will be a tendency and pformation of macro policy to continue to rapidly raise the reserve ratio, to issue more central bank bills, or to put forward various very tough loan guidance to commercial banks, rather than to raise interest rates rapidly.

"My personal understanding is that such a pformation, from appropriate easing to prudent policy, is a prudent, prudent, gradual and one-step step by step. In official languages, it is flexible, targeted in pursuit of effectiveness and efficiency oriented policy pformation, and will not suddenly pform overnight."

Li Daokui said.

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Internal and external needs, and the three major economic structures will be adjusted.

Some experts also believe that during the "12th Five-Year" period, it is estimated that

Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of statistics, believes that the price rise of Chinese agricultural products is relatively fast, which is related to the weak agricultural foundation.

To this end, during the "12th Five-Year" period, from the perspective of production, we need to make three major economic structural adjustments to make up for the short board of agriculture, while the industry needs to be bigger and stronger.

As for the third industry, further growth is needed.

"The proportion of our third industry in the economy is estimated to be more than 40% this year, which is close to 40 percentage points lower than that of the United States. The United States is 80%, 20 percentage points lower than the global average."

Yao Jingyuan repeatedly stressed in the recent eighth annual meeting of enterprise competitiveness and several subsequent meetings.

He pointed out that the low proportion of the third industries currently leads to the employment of university graduates.

Graduating 6 million per year is directly related to the low proportion of modern service industry.

In December 10th, he continued to put forward the 2010 China International Chamber of Commerce to adjust the three major structural relationships of demand.

The "12th Five-Year" proposal has put forward "to form a new situation of consumption, investment and export, and coordinate the growth of economic growth".

That is, consumption has been mentioned first, which is different from past demand sequencing in terms of "investment, consumption and export".

Wan Jifei, President of the China International Chamber of Commerce and the China Council for the promotion of trade (CCPIT), also believes that during the "12th Five-Year" period, we need to achieve global allocation of resources, complement each other's strengths, truly achieve both internal and external balance, mutual benefit and mutual benefit, and the connotation of external demand will change.

At the end of 12th Five-Year, we need to export 4 trillion US dollars in the end of 2015, not only to increase quantity, but also to ensure quality. For example, the focus of next export will gradually shift to high-tech products, and turn to the deep processing and finishing products of agriculture, turn to energy saving and environmental protection products, and turn to large sets of equipment, service outsourcing and other fields.

Ten thousand said.

At the same time, the internal and external relations reflected in import and export are also changing.

"At the same time, we must co-ordinate import and export well, so we should pay more attention to the import problem, optimize the quality of imports, increase the import of advanced technology, key equipment, and import important energy and raw materials."

Wan Wan Road.

His comments were endorsed by Li Daokui, member of the central bank's monetary policy committee and Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of Galaxy Securities (micro-blog).

Data show that in November 2010, China's import and export value was $283 billion 760 million, an increase of 36.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 15.9%.

The trade surplus was 22 billion 900 million US dollars.

Li Daokui calculates that China's trade surplus is expected to account for 3% of its economic growth this year, considering that the trade surplus continues to decline, which is quite different from that of 7%-8% in previous years.

Next year, the share is expected to remain at 3%.

In this way, the pressure of the US Congress to ask for appreciation of the renminbi is expected to drop.

"I think China's structural adjustment, especially reflected in the reduction of trade surplus in proportion to GDP, is making rapid progress in structural adjustment."

Li Daokui gave a confident conclusion.

12th Five-Year is still a period of great development in housing construction.

Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of statistics, pointed out that during the "12th Five-Year" period, the state strengthened structural adjustment and promoted the improvement of consumption rate, which was related to the improvement of social security and further improvement of people's livelihood with the starting point and foothold of the 12th Five-Year plan.

Because the most fundamental thing to make consumption play a more important role is to let everyone have money.

At the same time, we must solve the problem that we dare to spend money.

"What should we do? We need to increase our efforts to improve social security."

He said.

Prior to the December 3rd meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, it is of great significance to do a good job in the work of economic and social development next year, to make a good start in 12th Five-Year, and to welcome the establishment of the party 90th anniversary.

Reporters learned that the "12th Five-Year plan" put forward a lot of rigid targets, for example, in the next 5 years, education investment will reach 4% of GDP, and medical and health, environmental protection, housing security and other investment will also accelerate.

Qin Hong, deputy director of the center for housing and urban rural development, said that during the "12th Five-Year" period, it should still be a period of great development in housing construction.

The reason is that the proportion of households and housing units in China is less than 1: 1, while the number of housing units in the United States, France and Germany is higher than that of households.

It is reported that the total number of commercial housing over six hundred million square meters will be completed in the whole country this year. The total number of commercial housing sold will be about eight hundred million square meters. However, in order to meet the needs of the monthly increase of 1 million urban population and the need for upgrading the consumption structure, the future affordable housing will be intensified.

Thus, during the "12th Five-Year" period, housing pactions in China were still dominated by new housing pactions, with a current ratio of about 60%, which accounts for about 10% of the new housing pactions in the developed developed countries in the entire housing paction (nearly 90% of which are old house pactions).

At present, all parts of the country are speeding up the compilation of affordable housing in 12th Five-Year, and it is estimated that there will be 10 million sets of construction next year.

The total demand for housing in 12th Five-Year is still large, and the construction of affordable housing will be increased everywhere, and there is room for urban mobile housing.

The "12th Five-Year" housing security plan is clear in all provinces, and it can be said without doubt that the "12th Five-Year" period will be a period of greater proportion of indemnificatory housing construction and increased investment.

Qin Hong said.

She revealed that affordable housing covered by public housing during the "12th Five-Year" period covered public rental housing, which would be open to urban migrants.