Us Supply And Demand Report More Cotton Prices Again Support
The price of cotton is much higher than that of the US.
政策壓力仍為完全消除,但市場在全球供需趨緊下,短期期棉價格仍有沿區間震蕩趨勢技術性回暖可能。
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USDA supply and demand report
On the other hand, investors bought in moderate trading, and ICE cotton futures rose 10 days. The main contract in March rose 1.02 cents and ended up at $1.3697.
On the basic level, the US Department of agriculture reduced its domestic output, and at the end of the year, the inventory estimate was also reduced to 1 million 900 thousand packages, which highlights the tight supply.
Analysts say short-term profits will support the market and rekindle the rally.
It is understood that during the weekend, the price stability of domestic spot cotton rose slightly. Under the pressure of funds, cotton manufacturers had a higher sales enthusiasm. Although textile enterprises had demand for replenishment, most purchases were still more cautious, so the volume did not enlarge.
According to the railway department, near the end of the year, the railway capacity of Xinjiang continued to be tight. Although the planned 300 lint was shipped daily, the average daily traffic volume was only 250-260 vehicles.
So far, Xinjiang cotton railway has reached 550 thousand tons, and 170 thousand tons less than the same period last year.
From the perspective of textile related varieties, the prices of PTA and the whole cotton yarn market are still in a downward trend, and clothing prices are still high because of the peak demand.
Analysts believe that the market is still in a tense state of supply and demand, but the policy pressure is still completely eliminated. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to oscillate along the interval this week.
Technological warming
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From the macro policy perspective, the National Bureau of statistics released the economic data for the weekend of November: CPI rose 5.1%, a 28 month high of 1.1%, PPI rose 6.1% compared to the same period last year, and the annulus rose 1.4%.
The added value of industrial products above designated size increased by 13.3% over the same period last year, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 18.7% over the same period last year, and exports grew by 37.7% compared with the same period last year, and imports grew by 34.9% compared with the same period last year. The fixed assets investment in urban areas increased by 24.9% over the same period in 1-11 months.
In November, M1 and M2 continued to rebound, adding RMB 564 billion yuan in credit.
Overall, in November, investment rebounded, consumption was stable, exports exceeded expectations, but inflationary pressures continued to increase. CPI broke through the 5% mark, and credit exceeded market expectations.
Therefore, tightening monetary policy is imperative.
So the next step in raising interest rates may still be unavoidable.
According to China's weather network 13 reported that the impact of strong cold air spread south, the next three days, the temperature in most parts of the country will generally drop by 4-8 degrees Celsius, local cooling can reach more than 10 degrees Celsius, the northern region with 4~6 winds; Huang Huai, Jianghan, Jianghuai, North and south of the Yangtze River, Eastern and central Guizhou and other places will appear rain to snow or sleet weather.
Today, during the day and night, there are small to moderate snow in the southeastern part of Jilin, the eastern part of Liaoning, the southern part of Hebei and the northern part of Shandong. The amount of snow is about 1-4mm. The depth of snow in these areas will increase by 1-3cm. The depth of snow in the eastern part of Liaoning and the eastern part of Jilin will reach more than 15cm, and the local area will exceed 20cm.
During the day, there are 10~11 northerly winds in the Bohai and Bohai Straits. There are 7~8 northerly winds in the central and northern parts of the Yellow Sea and 9~10 gust in gust.
This week, the temperature in both the north and the South will drop significantly, and the continued low temperature will become a common phenomenon.
With the cold air going south, the temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is low, and the winter starts.
At the same time, there will be a lot of rain and snow from Huang Huai to the south of the Yangtze River.
To sum up, at present, the market is still cautious. The interest rate increase has not yet reached the "boots". There is a lack of basis for blindly doing more or shorting. Analyst Zhai Naigang believes that although the current policy pressure is still completely eliminated, the market is tightening in the global supply and demand, and the short-term price of cotton still has the trend of technological rebound along the interval.
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