Comments On November Quotes: Under Complicated Circumstances, Silk Is Unique.

First, platform adjustment is the main factor and rising kinetic energy exists.

After breaking through the historical high price of 34 yuan and 350 thousand yuan per ton, the price of raw silk has been adjusted by 350 thousand -36 yuan.

The main contract of raw silk in Guangxi bulk silk trading market fell back at the peak of 359 thousand and 600 yuan in early 11033. Late last year, India state owned company purchased 100 tons of tax exemption information, and invited some large enterprises in China to participate in bidding. The price of raw silk rose again and exceeded 360 thousand yuan, but the order volume decreased to 1000 batches at the end of the month.

Although according to India's view, duty-free raw silk is still in the total volume of procurement in India, and does not belong to the new increment. This tender procurement has a higher threshold for the establishment of export companies, but export is still driven by this, and the price of cocoon silk continues to run at a high level.

From the technical aspect, the most representative raw silk 033 contract has been running on the 0 axis of dif line and DEA line in November. The whole market is still in the bull market, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged.

In November 17th, the five day moving average wore down the 10 day moving average, but did not continue to explore. On the 23 day, it broke the 10 day moving average. At the same time, a number of daily average lines were rising upward, and the power to support the next price increase was still sufficient.

Two. Under the background of inflation, the price of cocoon silk is not cold for the visible hand.

Inflation expectations are the focus of recent policy concerns. From the data of the agricultural products index of the Ministry of agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce, the average price of agricultural products continued to rise in November, of which the wholesale price index of agricultural products rose by 2.6% in the Ministry of agriculture, indicating that the CPI pressure of consumer prices in November is likely to continue to rise.

The Department predicted that CPI could rise further to 4.8%~5.0% in November.

The market is worried that in the case of faster credit growth and higher inflation pressure, China may introduce more stringent monetary tightening policies, and the intervention of visible hands may also become more apparent.

In November 20th, the State Council issued the "16 countries" to stabilize the general level of consumer prices. The prices of commodities such as wheat, corn, sugar and other commodities dropped to varying degrees. However, for dry cocoons and raw silk, although the prices in November had been running flat for a period of time, the characteristics of non essentials made the sensitivity of cocoon silk prices less obvious for this adjustment.

Three, the pace of RMB appreciation has slowed down and the trade surplus has expanded.

In November, the RMB appreciated by 0.1% against the US dollar. It should be said that the pace of people's appreciation has slowed down, and the pressure on China's exports has eased.

China's trade surplus is expected to increase in November.

It is also a good news for silk products that are largely dependent on exports.

In November, dry cocoon and raw silk are on the spot, which may also be related to the slowdown of export pressure to a large extent.

While the price of disk contracts is high, spot prices have also been strong.

The difference between spot and long term contracts is not obvious.

It can be said that the strength of spot also provides strong support to the disk, and both of them push prices up together.

Four, raw material prices lay a high base, and a variety of factors helped the market surge.

Raw material prices laid the foundation for high cocoon silk prices.

The cocoon production in the whole country has all been over, and the dispute between the increase and decrease of cocoon output is the biggest focus.

The price fluctuation of a product is beyond the scope of normal understanding and expectation. The first consideration is its production and supply and demand problems.

According to statistics from relevant departments, the output of cocoons in the whole country is about 620 thousand tons this year. From the current capacity of the whole country, the total supply should not be in short supply, and the price of cocoon silk is at a high level, and the cost push is the first factor.

Under the situation of more serious inflation, the disclosure of 100 tons of tax exemption information by state-owned companies in India, India, has become a fuse for the promotion of cocoon silk prices.

However, on the other hand, the NDRC has said that it will step up regulation and control to prevent overpricing of agricultural prices. Although the speed of RMB appreciation has slowed down in November, the pressure of RMB appreciation on the international community has been increasing.

John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has said this week that the US Congress (Congress) has lost patience with the Chinese people causing the RMB exchange rate to be too low, and will impose "strict" legislation next year.

Faced with this series of problems, cocoon silk market continues to rush to high pressure is also facing great pressure.