Textile Clothing 2011 Strategy: Looking For Varieties Under Fluctuating Cotton Prices
1, export growth is expected to decline gradually. We believe that the cost of raw material and labor elements is rising.
RMB
Appreciation and other factors will constitute a continuous pressure on exports, China's textile and apparel has occupied 30% share of the European and American market, and further room for growth is limited.
With the gradual weakening of comparative advantage, overseas orders have also shifted to a low production cost area in Southeast Asia. We believe that export growth will slow down on the basis of high base in the future.
At the same time, the US consumer confidence is weak and the recovery is lower than expected. With the implementation of the EU austerity policy, the pessimism of the market will be aggravated, and the consumption demand in the US and Europe will be further suppressed.
2, the domestic market is still selling key retail enterprises.
Clothing category
Retail sales grew by 26.50% in October, indicating that demand remained strong.
As raw material prices rose sharply, the textile factory price PPI rose 10.15% in the same month, and clothing PPI increased 1.8% over the same month.
We believe that the upstream textile enterprises have the highest sensitivity to raw material prices, leading to the end product. Due to a lagging process of raw material cost pfer under the ordering system, we believe that the clothing PPI will increase significantly in the two quarter of next year.
Consumer confidence index fell for the first time in 5 quarters, reflecting consumer concerns about future inflation in the context of rising prices.
Consumption intention
But the overall confidence level is still in the optimistic range.
3, raw material fluctuations become the largest variable. Cotton prices are expected to return to a rational crisis, and the recovery rate of global cotton consumption exceeds expectations. Under the cooperation of abundant liquidity, the price of [19.30 4.49%] of agricultural products is generally rising, which helps boost cotton's atmosphere.
The cotton price has risen sharply in the early stage, and it has deviated from the fundamentals. With the new cotton coming on the market, Xinjiang's cotton capacity is increasing, and the imported cotton is coming to Hong Kong, the cotton selling mentality of domestic cotton enterprises is expected to be eased. At the same time, the intensity of regulation will increase, and the cotton price center will have a gradual downward trend.
4, the industry investment strategy raw materials fluctuate vigorously, and companies with strong risk resistance will be the preferred targets of investment.
The concentration ratio of cotton textile industry will show an upward trend. The company with high added value and strong cost control is the first choice.
In the domestic demand still strong environment, we continue to optimistic about brand clothing and home textile two sub industries advantage company.
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