Short Term Policy Boots &Nbsp; Boost Confidence In Cotton Market

　　 1, CPI rose 5.1% compared with the same period last year, and the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio.

The National Bureau of Statistics announced in December 11th, November. Household consumption Price index (CPI) rose 5.1% compared with the same period last year, rising by 1.1%. Statistics show that between January and November, China's CPI rose 3.2% over the same period. The ex factory price index (PPI) rose 6.1% in November, up 1.4% from the same month. PPI rose 5.5% from January to November. As the data released in the recent two days showed strong economic growth and continued inflationary pressures, the central bank decided to raise the deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from December 20, 2010 onwards in December 10th. This is the sixth time that the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio in the year. rrr Up to 18.5%. However, many people in the market expect that China still needs to raise interest rates to tighten moderately. Mobility 。 But there are still differences in the timing of the market to raise interest rates again. Some analysts believe that the central bank may continue to raise interest rates in the near future, and some analysts believe that the possibility of raising interest rates within the year is unlikely.

Table 111 monthly macroeconomic data

The picture shows the November macroeconomic data table.

　　 2, new cotton picking and buying and selling progress

According to China cotton information network November production survey flowers, in 2010, China's cotton planting area is 77 million 870 thousand mu, the total output of 6 million 330 thousand tons. In November, the national cotton region was at the end of the picking season, and the overall weather conditions were good. Most of the cotton areas stabilized slightly and remained unchanged in previous years. By the end of November, cotton picking in the whole country was basically over. The picking rate was 99%, which was 2 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year.

Since the beginning of mid November, the price of cotton futures has also dropped sharply, and the purchase price of seed cotton has also dropped. The sharp drop in seed cotton prices has left cotton farmers reluctant to sell. By the end of November, the acquisition rate was 68%, 16 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

The picture shows the proportion of new cotton picking and purchasing in 2010. (source: China cotton information network, CITIC futures)

　　 3, November cotton enterprises inventory scale increased rapidly, textile enterprises stock surge

In November, domestic cotton picking was basically completed, and most of the seed cotton was purchased by more than half. According to the survey of China cotton information network, as of the end of November 2010, the total domestic cotton business inventory was 2 million 690 thousand tons, an increase of 1 million 90 thousand tons compared with the 1 million 600 thousand tons at the end of October.

Since mid November, cotton prices in the spot market have dropped sharply, and signs of callbacks have only come into view in December. Since the fall of cotton prices, most cotton textile enterprises surveyed have not purchased cotton, mainly to consume inventory. Of the surveyed enterprises, 33% reduced cotton inventories, 11% increased cotton inventories, and cotton industrial stocks amounted to 1 million 62 thousand tons. At the same time, the sales situation of gauze is also going down sharply with the price market, and the stock of enterprises is surging. The survey results show that yarn inventory of textile enterprises is 12.44 days, grey cloth inventory is 15.38 days, 5.62 days and 6.64 days respectively from last month.

　　 4, 1-11 months, China's textile yarn, fabrics and products exports increased by 29.6%

The General Administration of Customs released the import and export situation of our country in the first 11 months 10 days ago. According to customs statistics, from 1 to November, the total value of China's imports and exports was US $2 trillion and 677 billion 280 million, an increase of 36.3% over the same period last year. Exports increased by 33% and imports increased by 40.3%. In export commodities, clothing exports amounted to $116 billion 940 million, an increase of 21.2%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the first 10 months, and an export of textile yarn, fabrics and products of 69 billion 680 million US dollars, an increase of 29.6% and an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points.

5, international cotton market

In the latest forecast issued by the US Department of agriculture, USDA adjusted the overall data to see that the end of the world cotton inventory was higher than last month. The total output of cotton in the world has increased by 65 thousand tons, mainly in Australia and Brazil. The output of cotton in the United States, Pakistan and Uzbek has been reduced to varying degrees. The US output is expected to be 3 million 980 thousand tons, a decrease of 30 thousand tons compared with last month. Overall consumption was reduced, but the US cotton consumption was 770 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons from the previous month. The total volume of global cotton import trade has been reduced, and the end of the world inventory is expected to be 9 million 450 thousand tons, up from 9 million 190 thousand tons forecast last month, which has increased by 260 thousand tons.

India, according to local media in India, India's unofficial officials said that the deadline for shipment of India cotton exports was postponed on the basis of the original December 15th basis, so as to promote more contract performance.

Two, outlook for the future

There has been little change in the fundamentals of Zheng cotton. The spot market is getting warmer but the deal is slack. Short term policy boots will come down or boost confidence in the market, but the focus of the government's management of inflation remains unchanged or will limit the rebound height. This week's strategy suggests interval operations between 25500-28000.