Will Spandex Come To Cold?

Due to the reduction of orders in many terminal industries, the weaving enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong have been shrinking and the demand for spandex in the downstream has been decreasing. The inventory of spandex manufacturers has increased from the previous 10 days to the current 15 days.

Will the current market of spandex be as cool as the current weather? I believe that by the end of this year, its market will fall to the level before November's inflation.

1. High price of raw materials.

Since the beginning of December, the new price of PTMEG spandex in December has greatly improved, and it has also promoted the spot market of PTMEG spandex in the domestic market.

The general selling price of the external PTMEG is 3600-3700 US dollars / ton, and the higher price of some PTMEG is US $3900 / ton, and the lower price of PTMEG is US $3400 / ton.

There has also been some fluctuation in the market of pure MDI. Since December, the quotation of Wanhua and other manufacturers in China has continued to rise, giving the market a certain cost support.

MDI

In December, Wanhua company of Yantai indicated that the supply of goods was basically stable, and all of them were supplied according to the planned volume. Meanwhile, the influence of BAYER overhaul on the market would also be limited. After the NPU device was launched, the high speed operation was maintained in November.

Market demand for MDI products is expected to be optimistic in 2011. The demand for local market in Europe is expected to rise by 4-5% or even 8% this year in 2011.

Manufacturers' pressure bearing capacity of raw materials has also been relatively weakened, and the price expectations for pure MDI have also increased correspondingly. The trend of pure MDI prices to keep high is increasing.

If there is an increase in market supply in December, the increase in selling cash may increase. If prices break through 21000 yuan / ton, the price may continue to rise downward, but in the short term, the basic market is expected to remain flat.

Two. The data of spandex industry show stable production and operation.

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics and customs, the output of spandex fiber in China in 2010 October was 23 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 2.6% in the ring ratio. In October, the spandex fiber spandex was 948 tons and exported 2766 tons, compared with September, there was a downward trend; import covered yarn 493 tons, exported 137 tons; new resources (output + pure spandex + covered yarn imports) 25 thousand and 100 tons, net increase of resources (new resources - pure spandex exports - coated yarn exports, that is, apparent demand) 22 thousand and 200 tons, compared with September, there is an upward trend.

These data show that the new resources of spandex fiber are relatively strong, but there is a downward trend in imports and exports at home and abroad.

According to the production and operation of the spandex industry and profitability, the gross profit margin of the spandex industry in October was 12.16%, 0.30% higher than that in September, and the sum of business, management and financial expenses (4.13%), which was 4.13% lower than that in September. The profit margin was 7.5%, the non recurrent profit and loss rate was 0.53%, the inventory ratio was 60.47%, compared with the previous month, it increased by 1.81%, and the loss surface was 1.41%, which was declining compared with the previous month, and the situation is improving.

These data show that the current spandex business is running well.

In the first 10 months of this year, the spandex industry has completed an investment of 2 billion 146 million yuan, up 30.44% compared with the actual investment of 1 billion 646 million yuan in the same period last year. So far, the number of construction projects has increased by 12 this year, up 23.40% over the same period last year, and the number of new construction projects is 9. Compared with 5 last year, the growth rate of the spandex industry has increased by 81.63%. So far, the number of completed projects in the spandex industry has been 4.

These data indicate that the proportion of investment in spandex has begun to increase this year, and the number of new projects is also increasing.

Three, raising interest rates eased, domestic monetary policy set {page_break}

Last weekend, the people's Bank of China announced that since December 20th, the deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions has increased by 0.5 percentage points, which is the sixth time that the deposit reserve ratio has been raised in the year.

Previously, the central bank may be worried about the influx of hot money, cautiously raising interest rates, and frequently raising the deposit reserve ratio. The current deposit reserve rate has reached 18.5%, which is the highest in history.

After more than 4% of CPI in October, CPI broke 5.1% in November and hit a 28 month high.

The National Bureau of Statistics said that CPI increased by 3.2% in 1-11 months, but the annual CPI should be controlled within the control target.

The NDRC also said on the 11 day that the CPI increase in November was the high point this year, and that in December, CPI could fall to less than 5%.

The worst data this year has been announced. The increase in the deposit reserve ratio has responded to the data in November, and the expected fall of CPI data in December will ease the pressure of raising interest rates again in the year, and it will be good for the commodity market.

Once the central bank increases interest rates again, it may continue 3 to 4 times, and the interest rate will increase by 1 percentage points.

Meanwhile, tightening efforts in the first half of next year are significantly stronger than in the second half.

This is also because the CPI pressure is bigger in the first half of next year. The tail factor is concentrated in January and June. Taking into account the rising trend of CPI ratio, next year the CPI high point may appear in the two quarter.