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    2010 Cotton Price Crazy &Nbsp; Analyze The Crazy Chaos Of Cotton Market.

    2010/12/17 16:19:00 109

    Cotton Price Cotton Market

    According to the monitoring data of China Cotton Association, at the end of 10 in 2010, the domestic grade 328 cotton (standard cotton) was 26205 yuan / ton, and the price hit a new high again.


    The price rose by more than 50% compared with the quotations a month ago, more than doubled compared with the cotton prices in the same period last year.

    In fact, domestic cotton prices have started to rise slowly since the beginning of 2009.

    After entering 2010, the cotton price began to appear "blowout" as if it were affected by various factors.


    At present, in Xinjiang, the largest cotton region in China, the purchase price of cotton has exceeded 12 yuan per kilogram, and there is still a tendency to continue to rise.

    The purchase price has doubled two over last year's cotton price.

    "Crazy cotton" has unwittingly brought about a huge impact on China's textile and garment industry and consumers.

    When cotton becomes "

    Luxury goods

    At that time, all kinds of grotesque phenomena began to take turns in this industry.

    Along with the cotton price of hurricane, cotton industry has entered the most entangled period in history.


    The curse left behind by "cotton cheap injury to farmers"


    Looking at the phenomenon of high cotton prices in 2010, it is necessary to trace the source of high cotton prices in 2008.

    At that time, affected by the global financial crisis, China's cotton exports were seriously hit.

    The contradiction between oversupply and oversupply in cotton market shows that cotton prices continue to fall sharply. Cotton mills are afraid to accept cotton growers.

    This embarrassing situation has seriously affected the enthusiasm of cotton growers.

    It is for this reason that the cotton planting area of China has been reduced and cotton output has decreased in the next two years.


    In November 2008, the state adopted a strong policy of supporting the market.

    Until this time, at home

    Cotton price

    Only gradually stopped the decline and began to pick up slowly.

    By April 2009, the price of domestic cotton market had increased by about 20% compared with the lowest in 2008.

    However, despite the late stage of the policy of collecting and storing the market, most of the cotton growers sold at a low price.

    Therefore, the branding of cotton prices has remained deeply in the hearts of the vast majority of cotton farmers.

    In fact, the enthusiasm of cotton growers in China in 2009 has not been effectively raised.


    At the same time, the state's subsidies for planting grain are also further improving.

    It is understood that farmers planting corn, rice and other grain crops per mu of state subsidies to about 100 yuan.

    Farmers who grow cotton can only get 15 yuan of national good seed subsidy per mu.

    The tilt of national policies on grain crops has objectively affected some traditional cotton farmers to replant crop crops.

    According to statistics, in 2009, the area of cotton planting in China was 77 million 500 thousand mu, 12.38% less than that in 2008.

    The total output is about 7 million tons, 12.5% less than that of last year.

    Among them, the decrease of the Yangtze River Basin is obvious, reaching 18.9%, the decrease in the the Yellow River river basin is 12.2%, and the northwest cotton area is decreasing by 6.4%.


    In addition, the shortage of young workers in rural areas is also one of the problems resulting in the reduction of cotton planting area.

    In 2009, with the increase of labor costs in China, the wages of migrant workers increased significantly.

    At the same time, due to the low price of cotton market in 2008, some cotton farmers once appeared a "hang upside down" phenomenon of planting more than 10 yuan of cotton loss per mu.

    And in 2009, when cotton prices rose slightly, farmers' profits of planting cotton per mu were still less than 500 yuan.

    On the other hand, they earn more than 1000 yuan a month by going out to work. On the other hand, they are home grown cotton with low income and great risk.

    Therefore, more and more rural young and middle-aged labor force chose to abandon traditional cotton planting, and chose to leave home and go out to work.

    As a result, there is not enough labor force in the countryside, and cotton planting.

    Mechanization

    The degree is low.

    Therefore, more and more traditional cotton fields and even cotton areas have been forced to change their status.


    Moreover, the frequent natural disasters and weather conditions in recent years have affected the planting and production of cotton in China to a certain extent.

    Especially after entering 2010, the cooling in the north in 4 and May and the rainy weather in the South have the greatest impact on cotton planting this year.

    As the main cotton producing area in China, most cotton seedlings have suffered from rain and frost in varying degrees.

    Many of the cotton seedlings that had been unearthed were frozen to death.

    In this way, the cost of planting has been increased, and the time of listing cotton has been postponed.

    As a result, the contradiction between supply and demand in China's cotton market has intensified, and the market price of cotton has been further pushed up.

    By July, China's cotton region had encountered severe storms and even hailstones.

    Heavy rain and hail caused a large number of cotton buds to be knocked down, which seriously affected the yield of cotton.


    To sum up, all kinds of labor force irresistible and unavoidable objective factors, "joint stock", are one of the fundamental reasons for this year's cotton price boom in China.


    "Hot money speculation" lingering in the cotton area of white cap {page_break}


    In China's main cotton producing area, cotton planting in Xinjiang is mainly divided into two blocks.

    On the one hand is the Xinjiang construction corps cotton area, on the other hand is the farmers contracted land for planting cotton.

    Today, because of the super high cotton market prices, there are two totally different two situations.


    In the Xinjiang Construction Corps, the prerequisite for farmers to contract land for cotton is to enjoy preferential policies such as state tax and subsidy, and complete the purchase according to the unified pricing of the state.

    In fact, the annual "unified pricing" of the Corps is lower than the market price.

    It is understood that the Corps leaders in the "autumn harvest mobilization conference" revealed that this year's cotton purchase price of 8.5 yuan / kg.

    Since the merger of the regiment's cotton purchase and settlement was carried out at the end of the year, the "temporary pricing" is now announced, but according to past years, the "settlement price" is generally in line with the "provisional pricing".


    But when cotton picking just started this year, "cotton purchase price will be much higher than in previous years", "explosive news" has spread.

    In fact, the price of cotton market in October has reached about 12 yuan per kilogram.

    Therefore, a "secret war" that was sold and sold back was inevitable between the cotton field contractors and the Corps.


    "The huge price difference can make people desperate to take risks!" the temperature of Xinjiang in October has dropped to below zero, and the cold wind is mixed with water and snow to make people face pain.

    At three in the morning, the regiment of the Xinjiang Construction Corps was a scene of blaze with excitement.

    On the road outside the window, the traffic police, the Public Security Bureau, the Corps cadre, can dispatch all dispatched.

    "500 meters one gang, 2000 meters and one card". There are also special people patrolling on motorcycles, waiting to check cars at the intersection.

    The local government stipulates that all vehicles must be checked out to see if there is any reselling of cotton.


    On the other hand, the cotton purchase in Akesu, a major cotton producing area in Xinjiang, is a completely different situation.

    In the suburbs of Akesu, there are numerous cotton processing factories.

    It is understood that most of these factories were built in the past few years by businessmen from Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

    These factories are mainly engaged in cotton ginning production. Cotton ginning is a processing procedure in cotton production, which makes fluffy and cake shaped, and then processes the thickness needed by adults again.


    This year's high cotton prices have made these old people who are familiar with the market situation hesitate to enter the cotton industry.

    Without exception, they took a wait-and-see attitude, paying close attention to the cotton market and looking forward to the fall in cotton prices.

    So many similar cotton processing plants are under construction or even temporarily shut down.


    However, the subsequent emergence of these cotton processing industry veteran is not expected.

    When the cotton picking period was about to enter in 2010, there were many "Shanzhai" barriers on the Atta road leading to cotton growing area in Akesu.

    Of course, these levels were not set up by the relevant government departments, but from the cotton purchasers coming from other places.


    It is understood that most of these people came from Wenzhou, accounting for more than 80% of all cotton Acquisitions' new faces.

    In a short time, Wenzhou dialect became even the common language of cotton rush buyers.

    After entering the cotton harvest season, there are many tractors and pickup trucks carrying ashen white cotton on the highway of ARTA.

    As a result, those who rush to buy Cotton wantonly pick up the cotton on the highway.

    Because of their high price, they are very popular with local cotton growers.

    The local cotton farmers are also willing to sell their cotton to those who are buying on the road.


    In order to prevent the hair falling into the batten and affecting the quality, these people all wore a white cloth hat.

    It is precisely because of this characteristic that local cotton farmers have given them a very distinctive nickname "little white cap".


    These little white caps from Akesu are not strong enough, they are said to be "retail investors" of the Wenzhou generation.

    These people are basically not engaged in the operation of cotton and related industries, but generally have a little money, or hundreds of thousands, 100 million.

    This year, when the cotton market is going to rise, it will come to Xinjiang cotton area like a headless fly.

    They are intertwined with relatives or family members.

    35 people organized a group to buy two or three wagon cotton and sell it to the mainland for sale with $3 million in Akesu.

    {page_break}


    Unlike the Zhejiang townships who open cotton processing plants, these "little white caps" do not understand business and do not know the market, but are bold enough to follow suit and pull up cotton prices.

    The bosses who are familiar with the market are hesitant, for fear that high priced cotton will fall in their hands and dare not rush to start.

    "Little white cap" are lighting up the already crazy cotton prices, adding diesel fuel.

    Witnessing these phenomena, it is unavoidable to sigh with emotion that the gap between Jiangsu and Zhejiang businessmen is so great.


    At the same time, we need to have an in-depth understanding of the actual cotton planting situation in the cotton region.

    In order to see the future cotton market situation and cotton prices are the trend.

    It is understood that although the price of cotton is very high this year, cotton farmers also admit that this year is the most profitable year for planting cotton, and everyone has earned "real gold and silver".

    However, this does not mean that the enthusiasm of cotton farmers to grow cotton has been improved. It is not surprising that the planting area of cotton will increase substantially next year.


    We learned that in 2010, Xinjiang's cotton had reached 28 million 500 thousand mu, and the cotton planting area had reached a historical high.

    At the same time, a few years ago, the Department concerned led the farmers to grow large area of fruit trees.

    At present, the output of fruit per mu is more than 4000 kilograms.

    According to the minimum price of 4 yuan per kilogram in 2010, the income of farmers planting fruit trees is around 10 thousand and 6, and the net profit is more than ten thousand yuan.

    This income level is obviously much stronger than that of cotton planting, and the labor intensity and manpower input of planting fruit trees are far less than that of planting cotton.


    Therefore, it is unlikely that the traditional cotton farmers in Xinjiang will further expand the scale of cotton planting.

    This is hardly a big increase in total cotton production.

    The limited volume and the wanton speculation of idle capital are another main reason for the surge in cotton prices this year.


    "Sudden change in wind and cloud", the quantity of imported cotton is low and the quality is poor.


    As we all know, due to the impact of the international financial crisis, China's textile industry has been showing a rapid decline since 2008.

    Domestic cotton textile enterprises bear the brunt and export business has been severely hit.

    The decrease in demand for cotton resulted in the oversupply of cotton and the low price.


    However, from the second half of 2009, with the rapid growth of China's economy, the textile industry also showed a steady recovery trend.

    Especially after entering 2010, the whole industry is showing a thriving scene.

    It is understood that in 2010 1-7, the cumulative yarn production of Enterprises above Designated Size in China increased by 15 million tons, up 16.2% over the same period last year; the total output of cloth was 35 billion 430 million meters, up 16.7% from the same period last year; the total export volume of cotton textile and clothing was 42 billion 330 million US dollars, up 21.9% over the same period last year.

    The rapidly increasing demand for cotton in the domestic cotton textile industry has objectively resulted in a shortage of demand in the cotton market, and is also an important factor contributing to the rapid rise of cotton prices.


    In 2010, as the export volume of China's textile and garment industry increased substantially, the demand for cotton naturally increased.

    At the same time, due to the impact of natural disasters, cotton planting in China's main cotton producing areas was delayed and cotton seedling growth was weak. From 4 to mid May, the seedling situation was nearly 40% less than that of last year.

    In addition, a series of other factors, such as the reduction of cotton planting area, have formed a serious situation of cotton gap in China.

    Therefore, in accordance with past experience and habits, we have to increase the import volume of cotton.


    For a long time, the import of cotton in China mainly came from two countries in India and the United States.

    However, there are accidents.

    In April 2010, India, the second largest exporter of cotton in the world, suddenly issued a series of restrictions on cotton exports on the grounds of cotton production and domestic cotton prices rising too fast.

    This is undoubtedly a blow to the situation of cotton shortage due to rigid demand in China.


    In fact, as the largest importer of cotton in India, China has exported more than 70% of India's cotton exports annually.

    At the same time, the output of cotton in India has been slowing down in recent years due to a large increase in cotton production in the past few years.

    So, imperceptibly, India cotton has taken away part of the share of US cotton exports to China.

    Although in April of this year, India's policy of restricting cotton exports clearly violated the WTO rules.

    However, this problem is not something that can be properly solved in a short time.

    Facts have proved that India's policy of controlling cotton exports will have a direct impact on China's cotton imports this year.

    It further aggravated the contradiction between supply and demand in China's cotton market and caused the rise of cotton prices.


    If we say that the quantity of imported cotton is insufficient this year, our cotton processing enterprises can also find ways to find ways through other channels.

    The difference between the quality of foreign cotton imported in 2010 is a rare and most intolerable event in the past few years.


    First of all, after the entry of cotton into China's port, the staff found that the packaging of the cotton outside this year is truly diverse.

    A little better is wrapped in grey cloth and non-woven fabrics, while others are simply packed in sackcloth or even plastic woven bags.

    This creates a huge quality problem and problem.

    The foreign fibers in packaging materials may be mixed into cotton during pportation.

    This not only affects the quality of cotton, but also brings trouble to China's importing cotton enterprises in cleaning up the "three wire" work at the later stage.

    Increased production costs have caused direct or indirect economic losses to cotton spinning enterprises in China.

    {page_break}


    In addition, the relevant inspection and quarantine departments after opening the package for detailed inspection found.

    The grade, length, fineness and intensity of imported cotton in 2010 decreased to a large extent.

    The phenomenon of cottonseed addition in some cotton is particularly prominent this year.


    What is more, some foreign companies sent cotton to China seriously short.

    Short weight is what we say in common saying, "short weight and little weight". This happens when cotton comes from different countries and importers.

    It is unthinkable that it accounts for more than 80% of all cotton imports.

    Secondly, in the related aspects, we found that there were falsification, adulteration of Chen cotton, oil stains cotton, polluted cotton, mildew and rotten cotton.

    Generally speaking, the quality of imported cotton has dropped considerably compared with previous years.


    In 2010, due to the decline in domestic cotton production, India cotton restricted exports, idle capital accumulation, speculation and so on a series of negative factors superimposed together led to the rapid rise of cotton prices.

    This has brought severe tests to China's cotton industry, and the whole industry is facing unprecedented difficulties.

    However, with the national reserve cotton selling, the quota of imported cotton increased.

    It is not difficult to find that our country has taken unprecedented tough measures to control the price of cotton.

    It is believed that after the new cotton enters the market and the international market, especially the India cotton will begin to restore supply, the trend of the fast growth of cotton prices can be alleviated as soon as possible through the efforts of all aspects of the cotton industry in China.

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