China'S Textile Raw Materials Are Rising &Nbsp, And High Cost Will Become The Norm.

If we use a word to outline the textile materials market in 2010, it is insane.

With the heavy blow of the global financial crisis and stumbling into

This year, under the influence of complicated factors, especially the hot money that is being watched, textile raw materials, the leading textile industry, began to be wild, like a mental patient who lost his mind, stirring up the whole industrial chain, and testing the industry's coping ability.

Cotton prices hit a 15 year high

This year's cotton price boom is staggering, creating a new high in the past 15 years, breaking 20 thousand yuan / ton, leading to a 30 thousand yuan / ton mark.

Under the catalysis of the cotton spot market, in August and the first 8 months of this year, Zheng Shang cotton futures grew by 625% and 1183% respectively, ranking first among futures commodities.

Since September 7th of this year, the total turnover of cotton futures in Zhengzhou merchants has exceeded 100 million hands, 5 tons per hand. On the 10 day, the total number of positions held by the company exceeded 400 thousand hands, which is higher than that in New York cotton history. The maximum daily volume of pactions is 30%.

Of course, the supply and demand change is the basic reason for the rise in cotton prices this year.

According to international

At the same time, the reduction of cotton inventories is also a powerful promoter of cotton price rise.

World cotton in 2009/2010

Hot money is rising from the trend of prosperity

Speculative capital has been rising from the prevailing wind, which has aggravated the impermanence of cotton prices.

Since July this year, the harsh climate of some major agricultural products in Europe and America and Asia has brought uncertainty to the future supply, and speculative capital has taken this opportunity to pour into the agricultural futures market for speculation.

Before the financial crisis, the bulk of raw materials except cotton increased sharply.

Over the past two years, all countries in the world have intensified supervision over the speculation of oil and other derivatives, and hot money has been converted to cotton and other agricultural and sideline products.

New York futures exchange data show that as of the end of September this year, cotton futures noncommercial long positions were 78804 hands, an increase of 34386 compared with the early July cotton price rise, an increase of 77.41%.

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Domestic hot money is also eyeing the market of cotton and other agricultural products.

Because of the relatively loose monetary policy of the country this year, the speculative space of the real estate market under the state regulation has been narrowed in the second half of the year, and hot money has poured into cotton and other agricultural products futures market.

In September 21st, the turnover of the main 1105 cotton contract reached 1588808 hands, hitting a record high.

In November 9th, the 1105 main contract volume reached 1694108 hands, a new record high.

This has seriously deviated from the basic function of futures as a financial leverage.

"This is by no means a normal state! Cotton prices have seriously deviated from the fundamentals of supply and demand, and there is a big bubble.

On the surface, it is good for chemical fiber products, but fundamentally speaking, it is increasing the risk of the entire raw material market such as cotton and chemical fiber.

Industry experts said.

Textile raw materials are rising.

Under the "contagion" of frenzied cotton prices, the price of chemical fiber has increased rapidly this year, especially in the past few days, the polyester staple fiber has risen 1000 yuan per ton per day for several consecutive days.

Since the beginning of September, prices of all major chemical fiber products have risen rapidly. Among them, the fastest rising is polyester staple fiber, nearly doubled; viscose staple fiber per ton has risen by 12000 yuan, or up to 67%; other varieties of prices have also risen to varying degrees.

This cotton price fluctuation can be seen as a whole.

Although the amount of chemical fiber directly related to cotton spinning accounts for only 40% of the total chemical fiber, the change of cotton price has so far affected the price of chemical fiber widely.

Moreover, the price of raw materials such as wool, cocoon silk and linen has risen to varying degrees this year, making the downstream textile enterprises complain incessantly and suffer from high cost.

Although some enterprises have bought enough cotton before, they have made a lot of money even if they do not produce, but they are still puzzled by the uncertainty of the market and are at a loss.

"Over the years, the more we produce, the less money we make."

A few days ago, reporters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces generally reported this way.

The price of high altitude material plus high labor cost has already fallen into the vicious circle of "a large increase in output and a sharp drop in profits".

There is no doubt that high cotton prices and high labor costs constitute a cost pressure on downstream textile enterprises. Many SMEs have to temporarily cut production or stop production.

The new round of industry shuffling has already begun in the era of high cost.

High cost will become the norm {page_break}

Huang Hefang, chairman of Jiangsu Xin Fang Textile Group, told reporters: "high cost will become a normal situation for the textile industry.

The plateau material and labor cost raise higher requirements for textile enterprises' management and management capabilities, and will speed up the polarization of the textile industry.

Advantageous enterprises have strong bargaining power, and industrial resources will gradually flow to large enterprises in the process.

"At this time, we pay more attention to the development of new products."

Ge Yafang, President of Jiangsu black peony group Limited by Share Ltd, said that in dealing with high costs, "high-end positioning is more important for the future development of enterprises in the current difficult times.

The defensive strategy of brand enterprises is to take the initiative to attack, strengthen product innovation, lock in costs and digest costs with high added value products, and expand profit margins.

The high cost in the eyes of economists is a sign of the maturity of industrialization, and the sooner the developed countries and regions are faced with this problem.

But maintaining market stability is a prerequisite for the healthy development of any country and any industry.

In the face of the crazy cotton price, a series of macro - control measures have been made by the state.

On the one hand, the central bank continued to raise the deposit reserve ratio and raise interest rates, resulting in a strong contraction of liquidity expectations; on the other hand, in November 8th, the seven departments of the national development and Reform Commission issued emergency notices, and put forward six measures to maintain the order of the cotton market and stabilize the market price of cotton, which is indeed effective.

In the past 2010, textile raw materials led by cotton were wild, but it has not yet changed the strong rebound of China's textile industry, nor has it shaken confidence and determination to move towards a strong textile power.

"I don't think China's textile industry will disappear, just like I don't think the US auto industry will disappear."

Professor Edmund Phelps, an American economist and Nobel Laureate in economics, is convinced that China's textile industry will continue to play an important role in the Chinese economy and even the global economy in the future.