The Growth Rate Will Slow Down 2011: The Export Environment Of Chinese Textile And Clothing Is More Complicated.

2011, China's textile industry

In the past year, China's textile and clothing products are facing a complex export situation.

On the one hand, the demand for the international market has improved somewhat compared with the previous year. The private consumption demand of the developed economies is improving, and the enterprises' inventory recharging power is strong. On the other hand, the global recovery foundation is unstable, and many new risks are affecting the recovery order of the global economy. At the same time, the further rise of trade protectionism and the emergence of exchange frictions among countries have brought global trade into a low heat trade war whirlpool.

Faced with the complex external environmental impact, China's textile export enterprises actively adjust the structure of export products, strive to enhance the competitiveness of export products, overcome difficulties, and the overall export performance of the industry has shown good results.

According to the first textile statistics, in 2010 1~11, the total export volume of textiles and clothing reached US $191 billion 615 million, which was 1.12 times the total export volume in 2009, an increase of 24.35% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 35.37 percentage points faster than that of the same period last year.

And entering the 2011, China's textile export situation will be more complicated.

First of all, high deficit, high unemployment, private consumption and investment have not improved significantly, and other problems will continue to plague the further recovery of the economic growth of the developed economies.

According to China's first textile network data, in 2010 1~10 months, the unemployment rate in the United States was basically above 9.5%, and its unemployment rate even climbed to a historical high level of 9.8% in November. By October 2010, the unemployment rate of the European Union has been maintained at a historical high level of 9.6% for nine consecutive months. In November 2010, Japan's unemployment rate increased from 4.9% in January to 5.1% in November.

The weakness of the employment market will continue to affect the recovery of consumer confidence and the improvement of consumer demand, and it will also drag on the economic recovery process of the developed economies.

According to the IMF, the global economic growth rate will remain at 4.2% in 2011, 0.6 percentage points lower than the 2010 forecast value, and the growth rate of the developed economies is 2.2%, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than that of 2010.

Second, the impact of sovereign debt crisis will continue to emerge in 2011.

From Greece in early 2010 to Ireland at the end of 2010, the euro debt crisis in 2010 not only caused the euro to suffer the biggest pressure since its birth, but also made the world's developed economies realize the seriousness of its debt problem.

Although the EU launched a rescue mechanism in May 2010 and reached a consensus on the establishment of a European stability mechanism in 2013.

However, due to the inherent institutional drawbacks of the euro area, the high welfare that has been going on for many years and the huge debts accumulated by a number of economic stimulus plans, the European debt crisis has intensified in 2010 and will continue to 2011.

Third, the pressure of RMB appreciation will continue to increase.

Since the reopening of foreign exchange reform in June 2010, the RMB has risen steadily against the US dollar, and its appreciation has nearly reached 3%.

After the financial crisis, the recovery of the developed economies is slow, investment and consumption growth is weak, and countries are scrambling to increase exports to promote economic growth. The issue of Global trade imbalance has been raised many times, and China has become the focus of Global trade rebalancing.

In the process of "rebalancing" of Global trade, the pressure of RMB appreciation is increasing, and the increase of trade frictions is inevitable.

It can be seen that in 2011, the slowing down of global economic recovery and the slower growth of consumer demand will inhibit the growth of China's textile and clothing exports; and the pressure of RMB appreciation will weaken the competitive advantage of China's textile and clothing in the international market, and even lead to the loss of some orders.

In addition, China's textile industry is also facing the pressure of labor costs, raw materials, fuel power and other factors.

Under the combined influence of these factors, it is expected that China's textile and garment export growth will slow down in 2011.