The Central Bank Has Raised The Deposit Reserve Rate &Nbsp For The First Time This Year, With More Than 350 Billion Yuan In Lock Funds.

The new year starts less than a month.

Lock up funds more than 350 billion yuan

The deposit reserve refers to the deposits deposited by the financial institutions in the central bank to ensure the customers' withdrawal of deposits and the need for funds clearing. The ratio of the deposit reserve required by the central bank to their total deposits is the deposit reserve ratio.

After the rise, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions has reached 19%, a new record high, while some of the financial institutions that implement the differential deposit reserve ratio have to carry out the 20% standard.

The reserve requirement ratio of small and medium-sized financial institutions will also rise to 15.5%.

19% of the deposit reserve ratio means that after absorbing 100 yuan deposits, banks will have to pay 19 yuan to the central bank, and the remaining 81 yuan can be used for lending.

By raising the deposit reserve ratio of banks, the central bank has released the signal of tightening liquidity and is known as one of the three big axes of macroeconomic regulation and control.

According to the previous data of the central bank, the balance of RMB deposits reached 71 trillion and 820 billion at the end of 2010.

The analysis is intended to tighten liquidity.

Analysts believe that the current two main channels of liquidity - credit and foreign exchange accounted for a rapid growth trend.

The central bank's move is intended to tighten liquidity.

The credit blowout occurred again at the beginning of the year, driven by the interests of "early release and early benefit" and the expected impact of monetary policy tightening.

According to media reports, the first week of the new year financial institutions credit has been approaching 500 billion yuan.

In terms of foreign exchange occupation, foreign exchange has maintained a high growth since the second half of last year.

Foreign exchange accounted for an increase of 403 billion 300 million yuan in December.

Zhao Qingming, senior research fellow of China Construction Bank Research Department, said that the most direct impact of raising the deposit reserve ratio is to control the lending ability of banks, which makes banks face tight funds and influence bank asset allocation and tighten their liquidity.

It has little effect on other aspects, such as stock market.

To effectively manage liquidity, the central bank will reform the credit management system this year, and will calculate and implement the differential deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks on a monthly basis.

A few days ago, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, said that in the next few years, financial reform should establish and improve the counter cyclical monetary credit dynamic regulation mechanism, combine the total regulation of money and credit and liquidity management with the construction of macro Prudential policy framework, implement dynamic adjustment measures of differential reserves, enrich and supplement policy instruments, and guide monetary and credit growth moderately.

Dispel doubts

1 is there a cap on the deposit reserve ratio?

There is no upper limit in theory. There is a view that it should not exceed 25% in operation.

Since November last year, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio for the four time, and the standard of deposit reserve rate implemented by commercial banks has also stood on a historical high.

How much more space is required to raise the deposit reserve ratio?

Central University of Finance and Economics professor Guo Tianyong (micro-blog) said that when the people's Bank of China had just exercised the central bank's functions in 1984, the required reserve rate was set according to the nature of deposits, savings deposits 40%, enterprise deposits 20% and rural deposits 25%.

This is because the central bank can focus more money on refinancing loans through refinancing.

The Central Bank of Mexico has also stipulated more than 30% of the statutory reserve ratio.

Theoretically, there is no limit to the deposit reserve ratio.

However, judging from the current regulatory indicators, the reserve requirement ratio may be limited.

Barclays Capital said that the CBRC's requirement for bank loan to deposit ratio should not exceed 75%, that is, the loan should not exceed 75% of the deposit. Therefore, the upper limit of the deposit reserve ratio is 25%. Otherwise, the joint venture bank will not have enough deposits to pay the loan, thereby restricting the healthy development of the commercial bank.

2 is it possible to raise interest rates in the near future?

It is a consensus to recover liquidity. Experts' opinions on the impact of raising interest rates vary.

The deposit reserve rate and interest rate increase are two ways to control the quantity and price respectively. Whether the rate of deposit reserve is raised frequently or not is also the possibility of raising interest rates in the short term.

Guo Tianyong, a professor at Central University of Finance and Economics, said that the central bank once again raised the deposit reserve ratio in order to manage its liquidity flexibly and prevent banks from re appearing credit blowout at the beginning of the year.

At the same time, it is possible to avoid inflation expectations which are easy to occur before the holidays.

But this does not exclude the possibility of raising interest rates before and after the Spring Festival.

Xia Bin, member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, said last night that the central bank raised the reserve requirement rate in order to recover excess liquidity in the market.

Xia Bin believes that the current excess liquidity is due to excessive foreign exchange reserves, the increase in the reserve ratio is to recover liquidity, does not mean that the central bank to tighten monetary policy.

He said that the central bank did not choose to raise interest rates because the impact of interest rate on liquidity recovery needed a series of policy pmission mechanism, which had a delayed effect in time, and the effect was not as direct and obvious as that of raising the deposit reserve ratio.

But Teng Tai, chief economist of Minsheng securities, said that raising the deposit reserve ratio may mean reducing the possibility of raising interest rates before the Spring Festival.

Last December, CPI is expected to fall at a high level. Judging from this judgment, there is little probability of raising interest rates before the Spring Festival.

Influence of

Short term stock market

For the central bank to raise the deposit reserve ratio, Dacheng Fund yesterday (micro-blog) said that in the short term, tightening policy will affect the profits of listed companies, causing some pressure on share prices.

Li Daxiao, director of the British Securities Research Institute (micro-blog) believes that the upward impact on the market is negative, short-term or certain shocks, but will not affect the rising trend of the market.

Guo Jin securities analyst Zhang Guojiang is more pessimistic, he said, in the recent stock market volume shrinking, liquidity tightening, the central bank introduced this policy, will have a greater negative impact on the stock market, and the central bank may also introduce relevant tightening policies, the market may continue to fall.