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The Cocoon Filament Went Up And Swept The Tiger Year &Nbsp; The High Level Of The Rabbit Returned To Its Height.

2011/1/17 16:46:00 73

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Since last year, accurately speaking, the price of raw silk has been rising all the way from the second half of last year until the end of the year by 420 thousand yuan / ton.

Compared with last year's 160 thousand yuan / ton, it has more than doubled in one and a half years.

An old saying has been fulfilled: no tallest, only higher, leaving behind the record of the highest price in history.

In every wave of speculation and expectation, a new higher price is coming.

Such a long boom has not only exceeded the average person's estimate, but also surpassed many of the senior figures in the industry.

The rise, the price rise and the rally are almost entirely unexpected.

Standing in the two years between tiger and rabbit, we can see the unusual trend of this wave and help to judge the basic trend of cocoon silk price in the year of rabbit.

Cocoon silk is also an agricultural product. For the price rise of agricultural products last year, it can be attributed to four main reasons: the changes in the supply of agricultural products caused by the objective environment; the increase in the number of agricultural products purchased and processed; the increase in demand; loose money; and artificial speculation.

However, there is a deeper reason for the rising trend of the prices of agricultural products.

Speculation is just fanning on the basis of rising prices.

The rising price of agricultural products is inevitable for China's industrialization and urbanization to a certain stage.

The steady increase in prices of agricultural products is necessary and reasonable, which is in line with the increase in farmers' hedging costs and is conducive to protecting farmers' enthusiasm for production.

In the past 30 years, last year to this year,

Silkworm cocoon

The rising purchasing price has benefited the farmers objectively, especially in Guangxi, where the cocoon purchasing market is relatively high.

If farmers engaged in agricultural production are often at the edge of profit or loss, or with little profit, under the impact of accelerated urbanization and industrial prosperity, how many people would like to do these jobs?

Rising cost

From the source, the price of cocoons will not be low. Silkworm eggs, mulberry seedlings, pesticides and fertilizers will increase the price of agricultural materials and directly raise the price of raw cocoons and raw silk.

At the same time, along with the increase of land rent, especially the lack of labor, the labor cost has been raised. We often hear such complaints: the times are different, the manpower is expensive, and many young people are unwilling to endure hardships.

Let's not say that we can find many good jobs in the city, that is, building workers earn more money than helping people to raise silkworms, and the risk is not so great.

In the face of most farm work including mulberry cultivation and silkworm breeding, the rural labor force is more likely to choose to go out.

Experts believe that with the rapid growth of land occupied by cities, land resources are becoming more and more scarce, and land price rise has become a long-term trend.

In particular, the compensation for land acquisition in some urban suburban areas is getting higher and higher, and the cost of agricultural land is greatly increased.

As a result, the deep and trend of price increase of most agricultural products is the rigid growth of the cost of farming.

Excessive monetary easing, including the so-called imported inflation of the international currency, and billions of dollars in domestic investment in the past year, has made money flooded with circulation.

Money is much more than products, and the value of money is less than value.

Because the price multiplied by the quantity of output is equal to the total amount of money, and the latter increases sharply, and the inevitable price will go up.

Specific to cocoon silk, supply and demand change is also one of the main reasons for the rise in prices.

Since the fall of silkworm cocoon silk in 2006, the sharp decline of silkworm eggs has brought about a consensus that the demand for supply in the previous year and last year has not been met.

After a large increase in the quantity and income of silkworm eggs in summer and autumn, stimulating the sericulture production this year will increase the demand to a balance and a tight balance.

Supply and demand can be gradually balanced, but the currency is full of a half load, but it is difficult to change.

Therefore, the trend of cocoon filament in the year of the rabbit will be maintained at high price, especially before the spring cocoon of May.

The high price range is between 37 and 400 thousand yuan.

This high price is at the expense of the industry chain, which makes it difficult to digest finished products.

Although the former manufacturers made a big profit, the domestic silk sales and consumption situation is not good enough.

Especially since the three quarter, according to the situation of Hangzhou silk city and Silk Street Shengze Silk Street, the price of most varieties has gone up too fast and too high, and sales difficulties have appeared.

In the past, the sales volume was larger in the busy season. Now it seems that business is slack, and some silk shops are very few.

Silk mill Shengze silk mill reduced production and reduced production to 25%, and some factories have shut down.

The city of ties is also almost the same as Shengzhou.

In foreign markets, the total export volume has increased, but the total export volume of actual exports has decreased.

The price of raw silk is rising too fast and too high, which adds new uncertainties to the international silk market without substantial recovery, and objectively restraining consumption demand.

China's silk and silk exports will be involved next year.

These are all reflected.

Consumer

It is difficult to accept the current price level, and the price terminal is difficult to pmit.

Generally speaking, relatively reasonable cocoon silk price is conducive to the healthy development of all links in the industrial chain.

The reasonable price of cocoon silk should be the value, which can promote the consumption demand of terminal products at home and abroad.

Due to factors such as development level, cost, price level and comparative efficiency, value should be viewed dynamically and developing.

The price of cocoon, rice and cotton of 1:7:1.8 is a law of long history and has its own vitality.

This year, resource products and agricultural products are rising.

Cotton prices nearly doubled, and rice prices rose by 3.

According to the historical comparison between the three, the price of fresh cocoon should be between 1400 and 1700 yuan, and the corresponding white factory price is about 34 to 360 thousand yuan per ton.

In view of this, we can conclude that cocoon silk price will be consolidated at a high price in the first half of this year.

When the cocoons are listed in early June, the price of silk will slowly fall back to its value range.