Attention To The Two Sessions: China'S Changing Economic Development Mode To Cope With Labor Shortage

In recent years, the phenomenon of "labor shortage" has always been a hot topic of social concern. Especially this year, "labor shortage" not only appeared in the southeast coastal areas, but also in the central and western regions.

" Labor shortage What is the essence of the problem? How should we know it? How should we deal with it? For this reason, the economic reference daily interviewed a number of experts who have studied the issue of migrant workers for a long time to explain the problem of "labor shortage".

The new labor force in the big province of migrant workers is expected to "peaked" two years later.

Economic reference Daily: "labor shortage" phenomenon reflects what deep-rooted contradictions in China's labor market?

Gu Shengzu: China's labor force spanfer and labor market supply and demand are undergoing profound changes. The reason for this change is the weakening of the "thrust" and the "pull" of the inflow generated by the comparative advantages of the total amount of rural labor force, structural change and labor force spanfer.

From a quantitative perspective, rural areas in China The labor In general, the pressure of surplus employment spanfer is still large, but the structural contradiction between supply and demand is outstanding. On the one hand, the surplus rural labor force in China has been reduced obviously at present. The supply pattern of rural labor in China is changing from "unlimited supply" to "Limited surplus". The 2011 economic blue book, published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that between 2004 and 2011, the increment of China's working age population decreased by 13.6% annually. Some scholars have shown that the reserve force of migrant workers has decreased by 6 million per capita compared to the peak of labor supply each year, and the total number of migrant workers has decreased by 20 million since 2008.

The statistical data and forecasts of the large output of migrant workers also reflect this trend. According to the data of Henan Provincial Department of human resources and social security, the growth rate of labor supply in Henan has begun to decrease in recent years, and has decreased from about 2000000 in 2007 to less than 1 million 100 thousand in 2009. It is expected that the peak will be reached from 2013 to 2014. On the other hand, in the rural surplus labor force, the proportion of young and middle-aged labor force is not high. The problem of shortage of young migrant workers in the future can not be avoided, which means that the space for the release of surplus labor in rural areas is relatively limited.

From the structural point of view, the peasant workers' stratum also began to split up, which is the new generation of migrant workers compared with the older generation of migrant workers. Employment Perspective Transformation is a prominent problem facing China's labor market. After more than 20 years of development, the old generation of migrant workers who went out to work in the 80s and 90s of last century are facing the degeneration of their quality. There is the so-called "40 year old phenomenon" of migrant workers. They accept a relatively low level of formal education. In the process of employment, enterprises often try to reduce employment costs, and seldom train workers on the job. Human capital accumulation is extremely slow. So, except physical strength, they have no other capital to exchange. With the increase of age, the "youth dividend" of the old generation of migrant workers is gradually wasting and the quality is deteriorating.

The most prominent manifestation of the differentiation of migrant workers is the generation of the new generation of migrant workers, or the second generation of migrant workers. This proportion accounts for more than 60% of the total number of migrant workers in China. On the one hand, they show different characteristics from the first generation of migrant workers, and have more expectations for respect, equality and social recognition, especially in terms of work environment, welfare benefits, development opportunities and cultural life. On the other hand, there is a certain bias in the employment of enterprises. According to the relevant surveys, a large number of employment enterprises have various restrictions in terms of age, sex and even geographical location. Many enterprises prefer to recruit young men and women aged twenty or so. This objectively restricts the supply of labor, thus exacerbating the shortage of labor.

From the perspective of comparative income, the comparative income gap between migrant workers in eastern and central and western regions is gradually narrowing, and the gap between the cost of living is bigger and bigger. The attractiveness of the eastern region is declining, and a large number of migrant workers choose to start employment in situ. First, with the continuous deepening of the development of the western region and the rise of the central region, the central and local governments have continuously increased investment in infrastructure and major projects in the central and western regions in recent years. The eastern region has also been increasing the power of industrial spanfer to the central and western regions, providing a large number of jobs for migrant workers in the central and western regions. Two, the gap between wages and salaries of migrant workers in eastern, central and western regions has gradually narrowed. Three, in recent years, with the introduction and implementation of the policy of supporting agriculture and benefiting farmers, the welfare conditions in rural areas have been greatly improved, and to a certain extent, the opportunity cost of migrant workers to the eastern part of China has been raised. The four is the imbalance between labor and income, economic contribution and benefit sharing. In particular, large scale migrant workers in rural areas bring heavy social costs to left behind children, women and the elderly.

Changes in supply and demand in the labor market

Economic reference Daily: compared with previous years, what are the new characteristics of this year's "labor shortage"?

Gu Shengzu: the phenomenon of "labor shortage" is a prominent manifestation of the change in the supply-demand relationship of the labor market in China. It is a phenomenon worthy of great attention. It shows that the supply structure of the rural labor force is changing from "unlimited supply" to "Limited surplus" or to the overall shortage. The phenomenon of "labor shortage" was first noticed by the media and the whole society in the early 2004. At that time, it mainly reflected the shortage of labor in the eastern coastal areas during the Spring Festival, which was limited to a certain scope and a specific period. In recent years, the problem of "labor shortage" has become more and more serious. Especially since this year, the situation has become more serious.

First, it comes earlier from time. In the past few years, "labor shortage" mainly occurred before and after new year's day, accompanied by the return of migrant workers. This year's labor shortage is particularly early. The survey from the Pearl River Delta shows that in 2010, enterprises generally had difficulty recruiting workers, and the phenomenon of "labor shortage" appeared in the months before the Spring Festival in 2011.

Two, it is more extensive in scope. According to the survey, more than 90% of PRD enterprises interviewed said there was labor shortage. In 2011, the shortage of labour in the Pearl River Delta is estimated to be around 2 million. Only Dongguan has nearly one million jobs. At the same time, the traditional labor exporting provinces such as Sichuan, Hubei, Anhui and other central provinces have also experienced a shortage of labor. According to the data released by the Anhui Provincial Department of human resources and social security, as of the end of 2010, there were more than 50 enterprises with more than 2300 workers in Anhui, and the total number of workers working in the province reached 250 thousand.

Three, from the type of work, it involves more categories. At present, not only the "shortage of skilled workers", but also the "shortage" of general practitioners. The traditional labor shortage industry with relatively low technology content and large amount of labor input is rather prominent. According to the survey conducted in Anhui, the most common shortage in Anhui is general practitioners. The number of workers who lack jobs is 64% of the total number of workers who are short of work. Moreover, the shortage of workers is mainly concentrated in the labour intensive industries such as clothing, toys, processing, mechanical processing, electronic processing and so on. The number of workers who lack jobs is 72%. A survey in Shenzhen shows that Shenzhen is also the most missing general worker.

The era of cheap labor is gradually disappearing.

Economic reference Daily: how can China realize the spanformation and upgrading of its economic structure under the impact of "labor shortage"? {page_break}

Gu Shengzu: the phenomenon of "labor shortage" is a challenge to China's existing economic development mode. It will increase the bargaining power of migrant workers in the labor market and promote the rising cost of labor. It will become an important force to spanform the development mode and promote the second spanformation of China's economy. At present, China's total economic volume has jumped second in the world, and per capita G D P has broken through 4000 US dollars, becoming a typical middle-income country. If the spanformation from the low income country to the middle-income country is known as the first spanformation, the biggest problem facing China in the next 10 or 30 years is whether it can cross the "middle income trap" and successfully realize the second spanformation from a middle-income country to a high-income country. Needless to say, the abundant and cheap labor resources represented by migrant workers are the important factors to support the first spanformation of China's economy. Migrant workers are a social phenomenon in China's rural labor spanfer accompanied by industrialization, urbanization and marketization in a specific historical context.

Since the reform and opening up, large, weak and cheap migrant workers have become an important part of industrial workers, playing an important role in realizing China's rapid economic growth. But at the same time, it should be noted that in the process of realizing the first spanformation, China has objectively formed a model of over reliance on cheap labor. According to the investigation report of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, from 1978 to 1998, the contribution rate of capital was 28%, the contribution rate of technological progress and efficiency improvement was 3% in the 20 years of rapid economic growth in China, and the rest were all contributed by the labor force. If the resource of cheap labor approximated to unlimited supply is the great development advantage of China in its first spanformation, it is obvious that the emergence and sustainable development of "labor shortage" means that this advantage is weakening on the way to promote the second spanformation.

From the current survey statistics, "labor shortage" has brought the rise of labor costs. China's macroeconomic analysis and forecast report released by Renmin University of China shows that since the outbreak of "labor shortage" in 2004, the wages of migrant workers have ended for a long period of stagnation and entered a fast rising channel.

So far, the wages of migrant workers have continued to rise for 6 years, increasing by more than 1 times, with an average annual increase of more than 12.4%. To a certain extent, this indicates that the era of cheap labor in China is gradually disappearing. For a long time, the economic development model which has been overly dependent on cheap labor has been unable to maintain. Therefore, an important task of smoothly promoting China's second spanformation in the future "12th Five-Year" period is to change the economic development model that has long relied on cheap labor force, identify the new source of power for economic growth, achieve endogenous economic growth and innovation drive, and foster new economic growth points.