The Two Quarter Investment And Financial Management "Grasp The Big And Let The Small".

From the stock market of the four seasons last year and the recent fund managers' prediction of the market,

From the stock market of the fourth quarter of last year and the recent prediction of fund managers to the market, the blue chip market is likely to return to the king after a long period of desolation.

For investors, the next quarter will be big and small, and the returns will be high.

Judging from the performance of the past two years, the small and medium sized plate represented by growth pattern has obviously won the blue chip market dominated by cyclical class, but this phenomenon may be changing.

Li Hongyu, manager of the Bank of agriculture and banking fund, said that from the valuation point of view, the current bank board price earnings ratio is about 10 times, and the 1.5-2 ratio is at the bottom of the history.

The share price / net asset discount (NAV) rate of real estate stocks is around 10%-30%, with a considerable margin of safety and a limited drop.

Blue chips are cheap at the moment, but fund managers are not worried about the doubt that the blue chips are lacking in momentum.

Now the valuation bubble of the small cap is more obvious, and some stocks have overdrawn the profit growth after 2-3 years.

The data from the annual reports can also illustrate this point. Many small cap stocks have lower profit growth than expected, and the overall performance of blue chips is higher than that of the market.

For example, the banking sector, the current bank spreads are widening, the rate of non-performing loans has not risen, profits have exceeded expectations, indicating that the assets of banks are constantly improving, and investment value is gradually emerging.

There are other reasons for the rise of the big blue chip sector.

This year is the start of 12th Five-Year. The economy of the three or four tier cities is developing rapidly. Cyclical blue chips, such as cement, iron and steel, infrastructure and real estate, will benefit from the rise of the stock price.

Specifically, looking for "undervalued and over expected" stocks will become the key means to invest in the blue chip sector this year.

But this year's uncertainty lies in the game between market and policy. Inflation and real estate policies still need close observation.

Of course, there are fund managers firmly optimistic about the small cap growth stock market.

"I think 2011 is a relatively mild year."

Sun Jianbo, the fund manager of the Chinese businessman flourishing age, said: "at present, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index's dynamic P / E is about 12 times, which is at a low level, which has a limited space for China's relatively healthy economy. In addition, the overall growth of listed companies' profits this year is 20%, which is already a big probability event. This favorable growth situation will also form a strong support for the stock market. On the other hand, the macroeconomic regulation and control brought about by inflation will bring pressure to the market's capital supply, which will result in limited space for the stock index to rise this year."

Sun Jianbo believes that China's economy has reached a fairly large scale. Under such circumstances, the continuous high growth of cyclical industries is not very realistic.

If growth stocks can adapt to the direction of China's economic pformation and represent the direction of the development of economic productivity, its development space is very huge.

China's economy is being pformed from external oriented.