The Deposit Rate Will Increase The "Quantity" Or "Price" Or &Nbsp; Monetary Policy Is Still Tight.

Because the central bank did not act on Friday, the sensitive time window for deposit rate increases was postponed to next Friday (April 22nd). Market participants believe that there is no concern about economic growth. inflation In the context of expected recovery, short-term liquidity will face a peak of release. Further tightening policy will be introduced, and the two quarter quantitative and price instruments will be used.

Short term liquidity is facing peak of release.

"What we need to worry about now is whether the central bank can get rid of the peak liquidity release in the near future." Financial services Negotiable securities In an interview with reporters, analyst Kim Jin said that in April another round of maturity of the central bank and the repurchase came, which focused on releasing short-term liquidity and releasing the impact on the money market. Deposit reserve Rate increases are likely to be used simultaneously.

At the same time, the continued increase in foreign exchange is also the focus of liquidity shocks. "The increase in base money caused by foreign exchange accounts for a huge amount and is rarely controlled by monetary policy." Jin said that the continued inflow of hot money makes the liquidity problem even more serious.

Chen Ying, a fixed income analyst at Guo Hai securities, believes that the current capital market is much more relaxed than expected. Even if the central bank once again raises the reserve ratio, it will be difficult to change the loose pattern of capital side.

Net return or maintenance of single week billion scale

"Continuous interest rate raising has made the central bank's interest rate inversion in the two tier market basically solved, and the impediment to the normal issuance of the central bank has subsided due to the low interest rate." Kim pointed out.

According to Wind data, the amount of funds expended in the next four weeks will reach 191 billion yuan, 296 billion yuan, 117 billion yuan and 198 billion yuan respectively. To achieve an average net return of 100 billion yuan per week, it means that the average monthly issuance of central bank votes and repurchase by the central bank will reach 300 billion yuan, which will be equivalent to the 0.5 yuan percentage point raised by the deposit reserve ratio.

Monetary tightening will continue

Monetary tightening is still a long way to go.

It is expected that the deposit rate will be raised again in April. Insiders said that the severe inflation situation and the pressure of short-term liquidity release all presage that the central bank's tight monetary policy will continue.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist at CICC, said that the possibility of raising the benchmark interest rate by the central bank increased significantly in the two quarter.

"In March, CPI hit a new round of inflation. It is estimated that inflation control is still the primary policy objective for the next stage, and tight monetary policy will not see a significant slowdown in the two quarter," he said. Peng Wensheng believes that quantitative tools, including the deposit reserve ratio, will remain the main force to control liquidity. At the same time, it is expected that the central bank will raise the benchmark interest rate again significantly in the two quarter, because further improvement of benchmark interest rate will help control the impact of March CPI high inflation expectations.

Gao Hua Securities pointed out that although the monetary data in March may be interfered by commercial banks' checks at the end of the quarter, the monetary environment in that month was obviously relaxed. Although the overall monetary environment in the first quarter has tightened compared with the fourth quarter of 2010, further tightening measures are expected and will be introduced in the two quarter.