The Road Of Polyester De Stocking Is Long.

In the past week, PTA has been down for 8 weeks. In the past eleven weeks, PTA has been down for 8 weeks. PTA has fallen from the highest 12500 yuan to the current 10200 yuan / ton line.

This week, PTA opened 10494, the highest 10510, the lowest 10070, closing at 10218 yuan, the position reduced 30 thousand hands.

The contract price has not been raised yet.

From the upstream perspective, the price of naphtha is near $1100, and the production cost of PX is not higher than US $1400. Therefore, the gross profit of PX is still around 200 US dollars, and if the conversion cost is 1600 PX, the cost of PTA production is 1230 US dollars, so PTA gross profit remains at a low level of 100 US dollars this year.

In view of the fact that two new PX installations in Asia are put into operation, the current PX market seems to be lacking in the upward movement of high profit margins. It is obviously not realistic to rush to the high point of 1700-1800 dollars. But because of the high price of naphtha and gasoline, PX seems to be unable to move forward to the 1500 US dollar line, and the upstream price elasticity seems to be lost.

And from the downstream point of view, the tightening of capital will continue to emerge.

From a macro perspective, the macroeconomic data in the first quarter clearly exceeded the market expectations. Therefore, the government has more chips to control inflation, and the future monetary policy may be applied to the extreme.

The central bank, as the executor of the government's monetary policy, has maintained the rhythm of continuity since last October.

However, in the first half of the year, the monetary policy that has been introduced is obviously not enough to effectively recover the liquidity of the market.

According to the forecast of the two quarter, the deposit interest rate and the RMB exchange rate still have larger adjustment space, and the inflation level may linger in the 5%-6% range.

According to the data released by the weekend, the inventory increase of enterprises is greatly unexpected. At the end of 3, the finished product inventory of industrial enterprises in the whole country was 23671 billion yuan, up 23.2% over the same period last year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the end of last month.

Among them, the eastern, central and western regions increased by 22.3%, 23.6% and 26.2% respectively, an increase of 0.4, 1.8 and 3.1 percentage points over the end of last month.

A survey by a research institution showed that, as of April 28th, 2086 listed companies that had disclosed annual reports, excluding 2016 companies with comparable financial services and inventory data, had a total inventory of 3 trillion and 180 billion yuan in 2010, an increase of 36% over the same period last year. On average, each company had a stock of 1 billion 570 million yuan, a record high.

From the detailed point of view, in the above 2016 companies, in 2010, a total of 1614 companies' inventories grew year on year.

Among them, 204 companies inventories grew by more than 100% over the same period.

Obviously, the market has been overstocking since the financial crisis.

Since the beginning of the financial crisis, the consumption growth of all walks of life, since the beginning of the year, the demand for a large part of commodities has been separated from the rising center.

From the food necessities, clothing shoes and hats, textiles and other necessities of life with smaller demand elasticity, the optional consumer goods such as household appliances, audio equipment and automobiles with higher elasticity of demand are in the consumption overdraft category.

Among the many categories of social consumption, consumption of gold, silver, jewellery, oil and its products is still in rapid expansion.

Without budgetary constraints, human consumption will be endless.

Consumption overdraft is a manifestation of the pitional consumption of social stock wealth, and the demand for commodities will naturally decrease after the savings rate of residents has declined.

Over the past three years, excessive consumption of domestic residents has resulted in overdraft of consumption capacity, and the consumption of the market has fallen into a depressed state after the withdrawal of stimulus policy.

Although the growth of residents' income and the change of government's thinking on economic growth will promote the recovery of consumption capacity, but from the data we have grasped, the downward trend of domestic consumption expansion is already a foregone conclusion, and the signs of bottoming out are not yet clear, and the trend of commodity prices will also be dragged to a certain extent in the future.

Obviously, on the one hand, the flood of liquidity has created a significant reduction in consumption overdraft and inventory. On the other hand, the most recent recovery liquidity has also become the biggest reason for the surge in inventories.

The market generally believed that the amount of funds expired at the beginning of May accounted for 60% of the total amount of the month. Upward expectations of upward inflation pressure made the central bank tend to further tighten the market liquidity. From the point of time, the central bank's decision to re adjust or increase interest rates at the end of April and early May is a big probability event.

The market is likely to passively de stocking the commodity market under the backdrop of radical macro stimulus policies.

As in the case of the financial crisis, history is often strikingly similar. Any passive inventory in history is carried out in the process of falling commodity prices. The rise of commodities will only increase interest in hoarding and covering goods, and the fall in prices will stimulate shipments and convert commodities into currencies.

This process will be long and tragic.