The Number Of Land Sold In Many Cities Dropped By &Nbsp; Beijing Decreased By 55% In 4 Months.
Land finance failure, local financing difficulties gradually revealed
In May,
Property market
The pattern is gradually clear: supply at the source of the land is shrinking, investment in the trading sector,
Speculation
Demand has basically been swept out of the market.
Regulation
With the two policies in mind, the property market is cooling down while squeezing bubbles.
In the real estate market at the source of the land market, from 1 to April, a large number of residential land sales were reduced, coupled with the shortage of developers' funds, the enthusiasm for land acquisition was reduced, the land paction prices were lingering low, and the income of land leasing was sharply reduced.
Beijing from 1 to April land pfer payments reduced by 55%, Shanghai fell 32% from the same year, and Shenzhen's residential land is almost "zero supply" since this year.
Residential land sale in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen has plummeted
Under the central principle of strict control of housing prices, the tension in the property market permeates every link, including the land market.
According to the Shanghai securities daily survey, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou and other places have reduced the supply of commercial residential land to varying degrees.
Among them, Shenzhen has almost zero supply of commercial residential land this year. In the tens of land sold by Zhengzhou, there are only 4 or 5 words of housing type, and are all the properties of other common commercial housing land sold by agreement.
It is understood that according to the provisions of Zhengzhou, the future developers to obtain commercial housing projects by way of leasing, must be built at no less than 10% of the total floor area of the proportion of the construction of affordable housing.
"Under the high keynote of stable land prices, now that local governments dare to sell high priced residential commercial land in a flagrant way, the best way is to reduce the supply of residential land and pfer more commercial land or industrial land.
But this will lead to a sharp decline in land revenue this year, as well as inadequate supply of commercial housing market in the future.
A senior member of the Shanghai real estate industry said.
At the end of 2010, the land leasing market in Beijing and Shanghai was booming, and the unit price of land was constantly refreshed.
The forecast of many cities to land hundreds of billions of legions is spreading in the market.
Finally, according to the authoritative statistics of the Ministry of land and resources, in 2010, the total land price of land sold was 2 trillion and 700 billion yuan, of which Beijing earned 163 billion 850 million yuan and Shanghai was 152 billion 700 million yuan.
Just 4 months later, the dismal situation in the land market has already appeared.
According to the statistics of Beijing chain home real estate market research department, in April, 13 land pactions were actually concluded in Beijing, and the land leasing income was only about 6 billion 350 million yuan.
From 1 to April, a total of 60 land pactions were completed in Beijing. The scale of land leasing was only 22 billion 300 million yuan, representing a decrease of 21% and 55% respectively over the same period.
Among them, the average floor price of 10 residential land from 1 to April was only about 4384 yuan / square meter, which was about 40% lower than the average floor price of 7337 yuan / square meter in 2010.
In Shanghai, in April this year, the total area of residential land was 238 thousand and 100 square meters, and the total amount of land leasing was 312 million yuan, a decrease of 94% compared to the central level. The average floor price of residential land was 819 yuan / square meter, which was 77% lower than that of 3569 yuan / square meter in March.
From 1 to April this year, 235 land pactions were completed in Shanghai, and the total land price was 37 billion 500 million yuan, down 32% from the same period last year.
Hangzhou, in the first 4 months, sold 28 residential sites in Hangzhou, with a total turnover of 12 billion 331 million yuan, less than 2/3 of Hangzhou's same period last year.
Some experts predict that if the turnover trend in the first 4 months can continue, the income of land leasing in Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou will be significantly reduced by 30% to 60% over the past year.
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Developers enthusiasm to cool down the sale of land at the base price increase
Since the beginning of this year, the news of land price in the land market has been reported frequently.
In March, a total of 25 commercial land pactions were completed in Shanghai, of which nearly 8 were sold at zero premium rate.
In the first 3 months of this year, 12 land sold in Nanjing were listed, of which 8 were sold at the bottom price.
In April 27th, 4 land plots were sold by Nanjing Land Bureau, of which 3 plots were sold at the bottom price.
Wenzhou, known as the "hometown of rich people", has launched 10 plots in the beginning of this year.
This phenomenon is rare in Wenzhou, where land supply has always been tight.
In the first 4 months of this year, the land pactions in Wenzhou were basically sold at the bottom price.
In April 20th, there were 3 tenders for residential land in Beijing. As a result, 2 plots of land in Shunyi District were priced.
6 days later, the premium rate of land pactions in Beijing Fengtai Xin Xin Dian New District, Cheng Shou temple and Tongzhou was 22%, the lowest was 8%.
According to past experience, the reasons for the low volume of land pactions are mostly related to the decrease in supply.
The reasons for this round of market performance are manifold: in general, the overall land supply has not been significantly reduced except for the reduction of residential commercial land. However, most developers are still committed to residential development, so commercial land and affordable housing land are at the base price.
For example, in March, 25 commercial land pactions were completed in Shanghai, and 19 of the plots sold at the bottom price were all commercial land and guaranteed land. There was no commercial residential land.
The 4 premium rate for residential land is still 41%.
However, even for commercial residential land, the enthusiasm of developers to buy land has begun to cool down, including the wait-and-see policy and the lack of funds.
Not long ago, Shanghai Sichuan sand dragon Development Co., Ltd. won the Chuansha C02-18 commercial block at 152 million yuan, with a premium rate of 146%.
However, compared with the Chuansha A08-03 block, which is also located on the Disney plate in 2009, the floor price has fallen from 14024 yuan / square meter to 8980 yuan per square meter.
Many people in the industry feel that the crazy time of the king is far from the land market.
There are also concerns in the industry that the current supply shortage in the land market may turn into the future supply pressure of the property market.
Although developers have plenty of stock in hand, there is a lot of new demand in Shanghai every year. Once the restriction is cancelled, the situation of shortage of supply may come.
Another reason for the weakness of housing prices is the strain of capital.
According to quarterly reports of 136 real estate listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities, the total inventory of 136 listed real estate enterprises reached 986 billion 513 million yuan in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 282 billion 370 million yuan over the same period of last year and an increase of more than 40%.
Among them, merchants, gold, Vanke, poly four enterprises in the first quarter of inventory were 40 billion 779 million yuan, 52 billion 245 million yuan, 150 billion 852 million yuan, 127 billion 61 million yuan, up 28.62%, 30.09%, 45.73% and 58.01%, respectively.
In terms of liabilities, Wind statistics show that the total liabilities of listed real estate enterprises in the first quarter amounted to 10458 billion yuan, up 41.27% over the same period last year.
The decrease in operating income has made housing enterprises' capital chain worse.
It is understood that 113 Housing enterprises operating income in the first quarter decreased 4.86% compared with the same period last year, of which the first quarter net profit fell to 42 year-on-year, the loss of housing prices for 25.
Although the profit of leading enterprises such as "Wanbao" has maintained growth, the growth rate has slowed down.
A large number of small and medium-sized Housing enterprises growth is more weak.
"Tight money, weak sales, developers will naturally be affected enthusiasm.
This situation continues, the price will be loose in the short term, but in the long run, as long as the developer's capital chain is continuous, the demand will be relaxed, and the best price increases will be found and shipped again.
A senior housing firm said.
Land finance failure, local financing difficulties gradually revealed
The deeper impact of the sharp decrease in land revenue on local finance and urban development will become apparent in the future.
"At present, there are three main sources of revenue for local governments, one is tax revenue, the other is land pfer fee, and the three is bank loans secured by assets such as land." two "
And these three are closely related to the real estate industry.
The judgment of real estate abduction of local governments is not excessive, and the sharp reduction of local income brought about by the regulation of the property market will also be an indisputable fact.
An expert from the industrial research center of Fudan University told reporters.
The 2011 blue book on real estate released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences shows that during the "11th Five-Year" period, local governments overly depended on land finance, and the total amount of land sold pactions totaled more than 7 trillion yuan. The total price of land sold in local fiscal revenue increased from 38.9% in 2006 to 65.9% in 2010.
Experts estimate that if the land paction trend continues this year, the local land revenue and related real estate tax in typical cities may be reduced by about half of that year.
Affected by this, the urbanization process may slow down due to the lack of funds for infrastructure construction.
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