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Prosperity Will Eventually Become Empty &Nbsp; The Market Outlook Is Still Hard To Pick Up.

2011/5/11 11:45:00 57

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Zheng cotton continued to maintain a clear downward trend in the early May. The effect of the weakening demand of downstream enterprises on the trend of Zheng cotton began to show itself. With the panic selling of cotton enterprises, the prices of textile enterprises dropped and the prices remained down.

Demand for China's imports of cotton decreased significantly and Australia

cotton

The yield increased to 4 million packets of bad news, plus the May and July contracts and the Goldman Sachs report, the US cotton fell to a 3 month low of about 23%.

Although there was a continuous decline in the US dollar during the period, the US cotton sowed slowly and the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates low.

Due to the upside down of the price difference, the breach of Sino US foreign trade enterprises reached a peak in April, and the US cotton exports showed negative growth for 5 consecutive weeks.

Compared with Zheng cotton, the decline of US cotton is bigger and the trend is more urgent. In part, the price difference between the two countries has given Zheng cotton a certain resistance.

Cotton cloth for the first quarter

Cotton yarn

Output remained high and demand for cotton was relatively strong.

But fears of falling demand in the two quarter began to intensify.

First of all, the expectation of RMB appreciation may continue to affect textile exports. The market generally expects export data to be unable to continue the good situation in the first quarter. Two, the capital chain of downstream terminal enterprises has begun to tighten, the cumulative effect of monetary policy has gradually emerged, enterprises have to raise funds for withdrawal, and the three is the policy of slicing and limiting electricity in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, or the downstream textile enterprises continue to accelerate the decline in operating rates, and frequent parking repairs have a greater impact on demand for raw materials.

Due to the serious internal and external spreads, a large number of orders began to default in March, which is also the main reason for the collapse of the cotton crash.

But a question worth pondering is that internal and external hang ups have started since the end of last year, so why has it shown the effect so far.

In addition to the peak season before the Spring Festival, the reasons for the purchase are generally strong. The main reason is that the anticipation has changed.

The general optimism of the pre holiday market is in sharp contrast to the present pessimistic atmosphere, which is the main reason for the large number of orders breaking the contract.

The current spreads are further upside down, and the premium has reached a new high in 1 years.

However, in the market generally pessimistic expectations, spot prices will continue to adjust the price of passive follow-up.

Enterprises with lower demand for buying insurance can consider appropriate intervention positions in zhengpan yuan.

With the decline of imports, the future deliverable sources will be tight, which is expected to support the price of the 1109 contract.

From this point of view, it should not be excessive after the sharp fall in September.

By the end of 4, the contract positions in September were significantly enlarged, indicating that after a continuous adjustment, the gap between the two sides increased gradually.

Although no obvious victory or defeat has yet been drawn, it may be concluded that with the further clarity of the market in the middle of 5, the collapse of many sides may lead to the emergence of a large number of open positions.

To sum up, the United States cotton because of

Export demand

Decline, the early stage of the sudden end of the rise.

The pessimistic expectations in the domestic market are reflected in the futures market, and cotton has become the most fluid variety in the commodity market.

Lenovo's cotton market led by the end of last year led to a flourishing market.