Cotton Continues To Oscillate Trend &Nbsp; Period Copper Reintegration Consolidation

Cotton plate V character reversal continuation concussion trend

intercontinental exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed up on Monday, helped by investors buying, and market rumors will not have enough cotton for delivery in the near future, leading to a surge in cotton prices. Target ICE-7 months Stage cotton The contract CTN1 rose 6 cents, triggering the limit of the daily limit and settling the price at 1.5115 dollars per pound.

Today, Zheng cotton 1109 contracts go higher and lower. It opened at 25620, the highest 25720, the lowest 24740, closing at 25395, up 70 points from the previous trading day (+0.28%). Cotton index increased by 15034 hands, turnover of more than 2 million 220 thousand hands.

Goods in stock market On May 17th, China's cotton price index (328) was 24670 yuan / ton, down 79 yuan / ton. In May 16th, the import cotton price index (FCIndexS) was 175.80 cents / pound, up 0.76 cents / pound; 1% tariff 29082 yuan / ton, up 125 yuan / ton; discount sliding duty 29440 yuan / ton, up 124 yuan / ton.

According to the latest macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the total export volume of domestic textiles and clothing reached 1-4 US dollars in 1-4, 2011, an increase of 27.4% over the same period last year. Although the growth of domestic textile and garment exports exceeded expectations, it was mainly due to the increase in export prices. It is estimated that the first quarter of this year, China's textile and apparel exports to the world increased by 19.46% compared with the same period last year, of which textile prices increased by 24.31% compared with the same period last year, and clothing prices increased by 15.99% over the same period last year. If we exclude price factors, we initially estimated that the number of textile and garment exports in China increased by 3.53% over the same period last year, which is 10.75 percentage points lower than 14.28% in the same period last year. The downturn in the domestic textile industry has affected domestic cotton demand, so cotton prices continue to be callback.

Judging from the trend of the disk, the domestic market was affected by the US cotton trading today. After opening, the price began to decline gradually. After 10 points, it began to accelerate and fell to the lowest level, to 24740. Today, cotton trend in the market once fell below the 5 and 10 day moving average, rebounded before closing, the intraday trend is intense. Overall, short-term cotton decline slowed down, and later trend gradually turned to shock. On the operation, it is recommended to continue to wait and see.

White sugar rises high and goes low before it closes.

The sugar price of the 1107 phase of the ICE sugar market continued to rise slightly this year on the basis of the support that the early production of Brazil's central and southern regions lags far behind the same period last year. The sugar price of the 1107 phase rose 32 points (+1.5%) on the same day, closing at 21.77 cents / pound.

Today, Zheng sugar 1109 contracts go higher and lower. It opened at 6663, the highest 6670, the lowest 6550, closing at 6625, down 15 points from the previous trading day (-0.23%). The index of sugar index has been reduced by 4038 hands on a daily basis, with a turnover of more than 690 thousand hands.

In the spot market, Guangxi quoted price concussion, Nanning middlemen quoted 7100 yuan / ton, the quoted price drops 30 yuan / ton, the sales volume is light. On Tuesday, the price of the East China sales area was stable or fell, and the spot price of Ningbo was 7350 yuan / ton, stable, and the turnover was light. The price of sugar in Central China is stable. Wuhan quoted 7200 yuan / ton, and its stock was not large.

In terms of domestic production, the output of the rest of the region has been determined in addition to the remaining variables in the main production area of Yunnan. As of May 10th, the output of Yunnan was 1 million 712 thousand and 700 tons, accounting for 8 million 692 thousand and 800 tons in other regions. The total output of the country was 10 million 405 thousand and 500 tons, down from the previous forecast, compared with last year's output, a decrease of 380 thousand tons, or 3.6%. In terms of consumption, as of the end of April, a total of 6 million 148 thousand and 400 tons (accounting for 780 thousand tons of sugar and sugar in the state) were sold in the first quarter of this year. The same period was 7 million 58 thousand and 100 tons in the same period, which decreased by 909 thousand and 700 tons compared with the same period last year. Domestic sugar sales in this quarter have been lower than the same period last year. The main reason is that the price of sugar in this season is at a high level, and the inhibitory effect on domestic consumption, as well as the substitution effect of domestic starch sugar. Because of the weakness of domestic sugar consumption or the overestimation of domestic demand and supply gap, the price of sugar has dropped. With the advent of summer, the domestic sugar market will enter the second peak season of consumption. If consumption is high, sugar consumption will continue to be strong, and the price of sugar is expected to rebound.

Judging from the trend of the disk, Zheng sugar was opened higher today by the rebound of sugar, and the price began to drop after opening, the lowest to 6550. After 10:40, the price of sugar began to pull along with the surrounding market, and the position was reduced. Although sugar rose high today, but then fell, the intraday fell below the 5 and 10 day moving average, and rebounded before closing. Overall, the trend of sugar in the short term is mainly based on concussion. It is recommended that we continue to wait for the direction of the future market. At present, it is recommended to wait and see in operation.

Weak domestic market driven domestic soybean market turbulence downward

Dragged down by the drop in crude oil, the CBOT soybean futures market fell slightly on Monday. In July, soybeans opened 1333 cents, 1343.5 cents high, low 1323 cents, closing 1326.5 cents, down 3 cents, and 1306.25 cents lower in November, down 4.5 cents. In July, soybean oil closed 55.91 cents / pound, down 0.23 cents, and soybean meal closed at 345.7 US dollars / short ton in July, up 0.3 US dollars.

For the most part of the day, soybeans kept rising, but due to lack of new information guidelines and the weakening of crude oil in the last market, the soybean futures price reversed downward. The NOPA press data were disappointing. The report showed that the crush of American beans in April was 121 million 300 thousand bushels, down from 134 million 400 thousand bushels reported last month. The US Department of Agriculture released the crop growth report as of May 15th. Soybean cultivation in the United States reached 22% in the week 2011/12, which was in line with previous market expectations. The same period last year and the 5 year average level were 37% and 31% respectively.

Today, the domestic soybean market has dropped sharply under the influence of the external market decline. Subsequently, with the recovery of the market, beans also rebounded. By the end of the afternoon, 1201 of soybean contracts had closed at 4358, down 0.8%; 1201 of soybean meal contracted at 3268, down 1.3%; 1201 soybean oil contracts closed at 9916, down 0.64%; and palm oil 1201 contracts were 8904, down by 8904.

On the spot side, Shandong imports US West soybean distribution price 3950 yuan / ton, unchanged from yesterday, the actual turnover is low; Qingdao port import Bay Bay soybean distribution quotas maintained at 4000 yuan / ton, unchanged from yesterday. Jiangsu Lianyungang (601008, stock bar) factory 43% protein soybean meal down to 2960 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday fell 20 yuan / ton, the disk fell sharply, feed factories and dealers cautious, expect the spanaction is still slack. Zhangjiagang Dachang oil and plate price reduction, first class soybean oil quoted price 9950 yuan / ton, four level soybean oil quoted price 9750 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday's quotation 50 yuan / ton, the first class soybean oil price yesterday was 9900 yuan / ton; four class vegetable oil price 9650 yuan / ton, 24 degree palm oil quoted price 9050 yuan / ton, 16 decolorization brown oil price quotation reduced to 9350 yuan / ton, compared to yesterday's quotation fell by 16 yuan / ton.

Following the weakening trend of the US soybean, the domestic market went downhill and low. With the rebound of the securities, the beans picked up slightly in the following days, but the overall trend is still weak, and the short term shocks are down, and the rebound is weak. From the trend, the medium term is still at a high level of turbulence, short-term shocks, but has not yet formed a breakthrough in the direction of the trend. Operation waits and sees mainly, market fluctuation increases, prudent operation. Us beans have also been on the downside recently, but they have not yet fallen behind the key support positions. {page_break}

Continuous consolidation of Shanghai Rubber Industry

Gasoline futures fell for the first time in 3 months to 3 dollars per gallon. Crude oil futures fell more than 2% on Monday, and crude oil futures fell 2.28 to 97.37 U.S. dollars in NYMEX-6 months, or 2.29%. Due to falling oil prices and weak technical indicators, the rubber contract of TOCOM index fell on Monday. In October, index rubber fell 1.1 yen to 370.4 yen per kilogram, or 0.3%.

Today, the domestic rubber main contract 1109 slightly higher, the intraday price first fell and then rose, closing at noon, the rest market rose 0.45%, the price was 31385 yuan. On the spot, the average price of China latex market is 34258 yuan / ton today, which is basically the same as that of the previous day. Today, Shanghai's full latex spot price is 34800 yuan / ton, which is the same as the previous day's price. On the import of compound adhesive, Singapore's 20 rubber label closed at $4474 in, and the compound import price was about 34424 yuan. The price was basically the same as that of the previous day. At present, the price difference between the compound import price and the Shanghai rubber main contract is 3000 yuan.

On the news side, the European Commission issued the relevant tire label regulation, EC1222/2009. Since November 1, 2012, the tire, light truck tire, truck tire and bus tires sold in the European Union must be labelled, marking the grades of fuel efficiency, rolling noise and wet scratching of tires. The target is to reduce energy consumption by 20% in Europe by 2020.

Judging from the disk, the 1109 price of the main contract is supported by the 30 thousand pass, and the price is currently in the range of 30000-32000 shocks.

Temporary copper loss or reintegration

Foreign LME copper on Monday opened at 8750 U.S. dollars / ton, intraday sideways shocks, the highest exploration of 8865 U.S. dollars / ton, the lowest exploration of 8715 U.S. dollars / ton, closing at 8801.25 U.S. dollars / ton, the daily decline of 0.13%. In terms of LME inventory, LME inventories decreased by 1450 tons to 467075 tons on Monday. The reduction came mainly from Singapore and South Korea's Busan warehouse.

Domestic Shanghai copper main contract opened slightly higher than 66040 yuan / ton, the market sentiment affected by market sentiment, down to 65300 yuan / ton, late rally rebounded, noon closed at 65970 yuan / ton, or 0.14%. Shanghai copper maintains a steady position today, and the volume of spanactions continues to shrink. In the domestic spot market, today's spot price of the Yangtze River is quoted at 66350-66500 yuan / ton, 350 yuan per tonne of copper and 500 yuan per ton of copper. In the spot market, the spanaction remained stable, and the downstream was on demand. The short-term copper price remained unstable, and most people continued to wait and see.

From the disk, bottoming up last Friday to compensate for the gap gap, this week or the previous decline will be corrected. It is suggested that investors can choose to lower their profit margins again. The 5, 10, 20 and 60 average lines are still hanging above, the copper pressure is large, the disk is still empty, and it is not recommended to copy the bottom.

Shanghai zinc plate wide shock decline trend has not changed.

LME zinc yesterday's trend is still weak, after opening, it continued to decline, the evening was a sharp drop, the lowest point to 2114 points, LME zinc yesterday trend is different from other varieties, the downward trend is more obvious, and finally closed at 2141 points, compared with the previous day, 32 points, or 1.47%. LME stocks dropped 200 tons to 831 thousand and 100 tons, cancelled the warehouse receipts 1.27%, LME zinc is currently around 2150 points concussion, 5 day moving average and 10 day moving average after a breakthrough, the following row 2000 points platform needs attention.

Today, the Shanghai zinc 1107 contract opened at 16660 points, slightly higher than the 16780 point after opening, but the pressure at the top was higher and the price was weak. Then it was dragged down by the stock market crash. The price dropped sharply and dropped 200 points. After second quarter, the price continued downward to 16450 o'clock, but after the sharp fall, it immediately rose. With the sharp decline in the position, the price rebounded rapidly to 16650 points, and closed at 16675 points in the morning. It dropped by 35 points in the morning, 0.21% percentage points lower than the previous day, and the volume of spanactions increased significantly today. Today's spot price is reported to be 16400-16500 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, and the spot market quotation is more uniform. Suggestion: Shanghai zinc fluctuates sharply today, the sharp rise and fall trend is obvious, from which we can see that the market's divergence is bigger, but the sharp reduction of warehouse position also indicates that there are more empty single withdrawal, but the price is still narrowing between the 5 and the 10 day moving average. The previous high level empty list can continue to be held cautiously, and pay close attention to the pressure level near the 10 day line. {page_break}

Shanghai lead decline cost interval decline has not yet appeared to terminate

Yesterday, fluctuating along the US dollar, the 2300 point remained the central axis of the fluctuation, and finally closed at 2280 points, down 20 points, or 0.87%. LME inventories were reduced by 75 to 316 thousand and 500 tons, and the warehouse receipt was cancelled by 0.66%. At present, it is still close to the 5 day moving average downlink, the downward trend is still maintained, will continue to test the 2150 point support.

Today, the Shanghai lead 1109 contract slightly opened at 16505 points. After the opening, it was unable to go up, and it was weak after the opening. After 10 o'clock, it fell sharply, and it dropped to 300 points in a short 10 minutes. But after 10:30 second, the price followed the stock market's Jedi counterattack, and rapidly pulled back to the previous shock interval. At noon, it closed at 16540 points, down 20 points from yesterday, and decreased by 0.12%. Today's spot price reported 15650-15850 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, and some traders in the spot market were reluctant to ship. Recommendation: Shanghai lead still oscillate near the 5 day moving average, and is still in a downward channel, and the bottom signal has not yet appeared.

Top pressure obvious steel price weak shocks

Today, the 1110 main contract of the rebar main line has dropped first, then rose to a minimum of 4794 yuan, and it fell to 4822 yuan at 0.27% in the afternoon. Coke's main 1109 contract rose first and then dropped to 2401 yuan at 0.37% in the afternoon.

In the spot market, except for a slight increase in individual areas, most of the areas remained stable, of which three grade rebar in Shanghai area continued to report 5150 yuan / ton, and the Tianjin area reported 5160 yuan / ton, all unchanged from yesterday.

In terms of raw materials, the price of iron ore has been loosening in recent days. The 63.5%/63% powder ore in the outer market continued to drop slightly to 185 US dollars / ton, and the Tangshan mine in Hebei also declined to 1420 yuan / ton in India.

Basically, in 2011, the number of affordable housing projects was as high as 10 million units, and the time has passed by nearly half. According to the data of the Ministry of housing, 1-4 months, the most affordable housing projects in most provinces of the country exceeded the same period last year, of which 131 thousand have been started in Hebei Province, accounting for 37.4% of the total annual tasks. It is expected that the month of October will be the climax of the commencement of work, and the vast majority of affordable housing projects are expected to start at the end of October. The construction of affordable housing will certainly play a role in the price of steel, and the social inventory of screw steel has fallen for ten weeks in a row. By last week, it fell to 5 million 987 thousand and 210 tons, and it fell faster than the previous year, showing that the release of demand was normal.

Judging from the disk, today's steel bar today's weak shocks, the daily average of the average line shows weaker performance, showing upward pressure is increasing, but the relative performance of rebar performance is lower, the underlying support is also strong, it is recommended that investors wait for a while.