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PTA Is Not Optimistic In The Medium To Long Term.

2011/5/20 9:40:00 50

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PTA in mid February

Price

From 12415 yuan / ton high into the down channel, the current PTA

index

The cumulative decline has reached 2866 points or 23.5%, and the period price has reached an important support position for the 60 week moving average.

I believe that although the recent PTA price rebounded trend, the rebound target may hit the 20 day moving average position, but the second half of the PTA fundamentals are empty, the long-term trend is still not optimistic.

First, the PTA supply and demand pattern shifted from tight to loose.

PTA at the end of 2010

capacity

Reaching 16 million 360 thousand tons / year, the downstream polyester production capacity is 30 million 570 thousand tons / year.

According to the production of 1 tons of polyester, 0.86 tons of PTA is needed, 30 million 570 thousand tons of polyester need 26 million 290 thousand tons of PTA, and the gap between supply and demand is close to 10 million tons.

Taking into account the difference in the operating rate between the upstream and downstream enterprises, polyester can be calculated at a rate of 80%. PTA is calculated at a rate of 100%, and the gap between supply and demand is about 4 million tons.

Domestic supply plus the annual import volume of PTA of 5 million 400 thousand tons in 2010, PTA supply and demand is basically balanced.

In 2011, the supply and demand pattern of PTA was different from that of the new production capacity. The supply and demand pattern of the first half and second half of the year was obviously different.

Data show that in 2011, the new capacity of PTA was 4 million 400 thousand tons, and the production time mainly concentrated in the second half of 2011.

The new production capacity of polyester is 5 million 300 thousand tons, of which 2 million tons of polyester production capacity has been added in the first half of the year.

Although the new capacity of 4 million 400 thousand tonnes of PTA and the new production capacity of 5 million 300 thousand tons of polyester basically match the quantity, but from the start time of each unit, the production capacity of polyester production in the first half of the year is more, while the PTA production capacity is relatively small, the supply and demand pattern is tight, but the new capacity of PTA will be released in the second half of the year, and the tight supply will ease.

According to recent reports, Yisheng Petrochemical's two sets of equipment may be put into operation ahead of schedule in 6 and July, and the commissioning time of the PTA plant in San Fang Lane (600370, Guba) is expected to be ahead of schedule.

Secondly, there are obstacles in the price pmission of PTA industry chain, and the cost support function is weakened.

In 2010, the profit of PTA factory was fully recovered, once it reached 3000 yuan / ton, and remained at 1000 yuan / ton by the end of the year.

However, since the fall of PTA this year, the production profits of factories have been squeezed constantly, and the supporting role of cost has been weakening.

I believe that the main reason is that the price chain is not smooth in the industrial chain.

On the one hand, the PX price of upstream raw materials is strong.

The gap between supply and demand of PX in China is large and its dependence on foreign trade is high.

In 2011, the new capacity of PX was estimated to be 1 million 800 thousand tons, while the new capacity of PTA was 4 million 400 thousand tons, and the PX new capacity supply gap was 1 million tons.

The mismatch of supply and demand between PX and PTA will strongly support the strong price of PX.

On the other hand, the downstream polyester has limited capacity to accept high price PTA.

In 2010, the polyester industry has seen a boom in production and marketing. The price of polyester products has gone up. Some pet products have even seen unusual profits. For example, the profit of individual PET film reaches up to 20 thousand yuan / ton, while polyester chips, bottle flakes and staple fibers have been out of difficulty for a long time, and the profits of thousands of yuan per ton are showing again.

However, with the upsurge of pre period price and the unreasonable settlement price of spot contracts (monthly increase of 300 - 400 yuan / ton), the upstream PTA factories refused to give up profits to downstream factories, which aggravated the cost pressure of downstream polyester factories.

At present, the chemical fiber factory is more resistant to the high settlement price of PTA manufacturers. With the release of the new capacity of 2 million 800 thousand tons PTA in Yisheng Ningbo and Dalian in 7 - August, the competition of PTA factories will intensify, and the high profits of the PTA plant will go to the top.

Finally, the demand for polyester enterprises is warming, but the demand for terminal is worrying.

2010 - 2011 global polyester consumption will maintain a 6% growth.

The capacity growth rate of the chemical fiber industry during the "12th Five-Year" period is 8%. Considering the concentrated release of chemical fiber production capacity in 2011, the capacity growth rate will be less than 8%.

However, the development of the terminal textile industry will face a series of uncertainties: first, the high cost of raw materials will increase the risk of enterprise operation. Two, the high unemployment rate in developed countries and the further expansion of international demand in the emerging market countries will restrict the further expansion of international demand. Three, the appreciation of RMB will increase the uncertainty of exports. Four, the domestic inflation pressure may affect the domestic demand of clothing commodities.

Overall, in order to control inflation, macroeconomic policy is tightening up. Under such circumstances, the downstream industry of PTA is difficult to recover as soon as possible, and the effective demand is difficult to improve.

To sum up, I believe that the fundamentals of PTA will be empty in the second half of the year, but not optimistic in the medium and long term.