The RMB Exchange Rate Is Higher Than &Nbsp, And The Global Consensus Is That RMB Internationalization Is Speeding Up.

The central parity of RMB against the US dollar has risen for two consecutive days, with a total appreciation of 117 basis points. On the 26 day, data from the China foreign exchange trading center showed that the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 1 yuan against the RMB 6.4921 yuan, and the exchange rate changed to a new high since then.

With the recent acceleration of RMB appreciation, the willingness to hold Renminbi abroad is also strengthening. A number of recent surveys also show that the global speed of the internationalization process of RMB has also been given higher expectations. However, in the face of complex domestic and international situations, industry experts also say that the RMB convertibility process is still long, and we must proceed cautiously.

Bloomberg News recently conducted a survey of 1263 economists, analysts and traders. The results show that most people believe that the renminbi will be freely convertible between other currencies before 2016. In addition, half of them believe that the yuan will become a reserve currency in 10 years. According to the survey, 19% of respondents believe that in 5 years, the yuan will join the US dollar, the yen and the euro as a reserve currency. Another 31% expect it to be realized in 10 years.

The latest HSBC survey of more than 6000 trading companies in 21 global markets shows that the renminbi is expected to exceed the British pound for the first time to become one of the three main settlement currencies considered by global trading companies in the coming half year. In mainland China, the renminbi will exceed the euro in the year to become the second choice for settlement currencies of trading enterprises, next to the US dollar. According to the HSBC survey, the five currencies that are most favored by trade companies in the next six months will be USD, euro, RMB, pound sterling and yen in the next six months. Emerging markets play a major role in the formation of this trend; while in the mature markets such as North America, the renminbi has not yet entered the top three, but the share of the usage with the pound has not been very different.

The current international monetary system is the international monetary system with the dollar as its core since 1944. Data released by the IM F show that after the birth of the euro in 1999, the position of the US dollar in the international reserve currency system has declined for a while. However, the US dollar is still the largest and most important international reserve currency in the world, and its share in the global reserve currency is still as high as 60%.

However, the world wide bank's 2011 global development horizon multipolarization: the new global economy report released by the World Bank recently pointed out that the US dollar will lose its single dominance in 2025, and the euro and the renminbi will establish an equal position in a new currency system coexisting with a variety of currencies. According to the World Bank report, the Chinese government has begun to promote the internationalization of RMB through various channels, such as establishing offshore renminbi market and encouraging RMB settlement in multilateral trade.

In fact, the internationalization process of RMB has accelerated in recent two years, and has gradually shifted from the current level to the capital account level. The people's Bank of China (CBPC) also put forward the "cross border RMB business and related monitoring and analysis working conference" held in the first quarter. This year, it will continue to expand the pilot projects for RMB settlement in cross-border trade, continue to carry out pilot projects of RMB financing by overseas direct investment projects overseas, and study the pilot projects of RMB settlement and foreign liabilities of foreign direct investment.

Jiao Jinpu, vice chairman of the people's Bank of China's Ministry of graduate affairs, said in an interview with the economic reference daily that at present, RMB internationalization should gradually solve three problems in the process of RMB internationalization, including the lack of gold and financial services and the lack of services needed for the cross-border trade settlement of RMB, the problem of unsmooth return mechanism, and the shortage of overseas investment channels and products. "It will take a long time for overseas investors to hold renminbi on hand." Jiao Jinpu pointed out.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the people's Bank of China, said at the Lujiazui Forum last week that China would cautiously promote cross-border RMB investment. He pointed out that the cross border use of RMB mainly refers to the use of trade and investment, and, of course, it will be prudent to allow for gradual use in financial transactions. Zhou Xiaochuan said that if the cross-border use of RMB reaches a certain stage of development, there will naturally be a demand, which requires that the RMB need to be gradually and orderly convertibility. In 1996, China announced that it had realized the convertibility of RMB on current account. In the future, it was facing the convertibility of capital account. This is also a medium and long term development process, but it brings many new opportunities and brings many new problems to be discussed. Xu Quan, deputy director of Shanghai financial affairs office, said at the Lujiazui Forum last week that Shanghai had already submitted personal overseas direct investment plans, but it has not yet been approved.