Officials Talk About Minimum Wage, Social Security And Inflation.

Since the beginning of this year, more than 10 provinces and municipalities across the country have adjusted the minimum wage standard, raising by an average of about 17%. The central bank recently released the "2010 China regional financial operation report". In 2010, a total of 30 provinces in China adjusted the minimum wage standard, and the average monthly minimum wage growth rate was 22.8%. A month ago, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of civil affairs also issued a circular calling for an increase in subsidies for urban minimum living allowances of 15 yuan per person per month, with an increase of 12 yuan per person per month.

According to public opinion, the minimum wage standard and the improvement of the minimum standard will be aggravated. Inflation 。

The relationship between minimum wage, social security improvement and inflation depends on the short term. Long term effect

It is understood that the monthly minimum wage in Beijing has been adjusted from 960 yuan to 1160 yuan, and Tianjin has been adjusted from 920 yuan to 1160 yuan. Jiangsu has been adjusted from 960 yuan to 1140 yuan, and the minimum wage standards in Guangzhou and Shanghai have increased to 1300 yuan. Zhejiang's adjusted 1310 yuan has become the province with the highest minimum wage.

Since 2011, urban and rural areas are low. Guarantee standard The rate of increase must be basically synchronized with the speed of economic development and the growth of residents' income. The central government increased 15 yuan per person per month for urban subsistence allowances in the central subsidized areas, and 12 yuan per person per month for rural minimum living allowances. The linkage mechanism of social assistance and protection standards and price rise will be established as soon as possible.

As for the continuous rise of the minimum wage and the overall rise in the minimum allowances, Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of statistics, clearly stated that the increase in wages would not push up the consumer price index. "The view that the minimum wage rises to promote inflation is not correct. Inflation is not driven by the rise in minimum wage standards all over the world, and the practice of raising minimum wage standards in many provinces and municipalities is very correct."

There is no necessary link between income growth and inflation. The wage increases, the consumption level of the people increases, the purchasing power increases correspondingly, and the demand for goods may also increase. There is a certain correlation factor between them, but it is not necessarily inevitable. Lin Xianyu, former deputy director of the National Bureau of statistics, told an interview with people's website that "CPI is very high in countries with high wage levels." It's impossible. Inflation can only be caused if there is a lot of money in circulation and goods offered.

"China's income disparity is relatively large, raising the minimum wage standard is considered from the perspective of social averaging, so that the wage level of low-income people should not be too low than the average social level." Liu Yingqiu, Dean of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that in the long run, the government will definitely raise wages, but it will not be an administrative order or a one-time unified improvement. It will be certain that the minimum wage standard will have a certain impact on CPI, but it will not be too big.

"Some people worry that raising the minimum wage and raising social security are likely to raise CPI, which is logical. Because wage increases mean that people's purchasing power and propensity to consume increase, which leads to the rise in the prices of consumer goods. Liu Yingqiu explained to reporters that in the context of rising prices, it is necessary to raise wages, especially for low-income groups, because prices rise, and if incomes do not rise, their living standards will decline. "Raising the minimum wage will contribute to the CPI rise in the short term. But we also need to look at the structure of CPI. From the current stage, the price of vegetables has dropped significantly. The low income class needs consumption mainly of grain, vegetables and non-staple food, which may not have much boosted effect on pushing up CPI.

Liu Yingqiu said that from now on, the possibility of universal wage increases is relatively small. Private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises account for more than 90% of the total number of enterprises in the country and 80% of employment. The biggest characteristic of private enterprises is to consider wages from the perspective of efficiency. So wages will go up, but the rate of increase will be much lower than expected. There will not be a pattern of large wage increases. Although the State encourages enterprises to increase wages, it does not mean that they will rise. Collective bargaining will cover 95% of enterprises in 12th Five-Year, which is a direction for future efforts.

"At present, it is a commendable practice to introduce measures to raise minimum wage and raise minimum allowances." Han Zhaozhou, a professor at the school of economics, Jinan University, said that since last year, China's prices have risen all the way, and this year has climbed sharply, reaching 5.4% in the first quarter, which means that the purchasing power of the currency has depreciated. If the wage growth can not exceed 5.4%, the real purchasing power of the people will be reduced, and the living standard will be decreasing.

"A direct link with CPI to push hard wage increases may be happy, but in fact it will lead to more serious cost push inflation and push up CPI." Su Hainan, President of the China Labor Association's remuneration Specialized Committee, believes that wages are the monetization of individuals' contribution to society. Raising wage level should be based on GDP growth and labor productivity growth. It needs to be clear that rising prices are only a reference factor, not a decisive factor. It can not simply be considered that the direct link between wages and prices can solve the problem, but we should look at the wage changes from a more macro level.

The trend of residents' income and economic growth is synchronous.

"In the past 10 years, the share of labor remuneration in GDP has been decreasing. But the state is advocating the simultaneous growth of household income and economic growth. Lin Xianyu further explained that the "12th Five-Year plan" mentioned that we should raise the income level of labourers as much as possible. Economic growth is related to GDP, but too much emphasis on the growth of GDP, or too much emphasis on the distribution of income in the growth process, rather than too much tilt to the public, is not correct. From this perspective, we need to find a balance between the two.

Lin Xianyu believes that, on the one hand, GDP can not blindly pursue, with structural adjustment and growth mode changes, more from the perspective of optimization, not simply pursue the growth of GDP. On the other hand, we should gradually increase the proportion of residents' income. In the long run, the wage level of the workers must be increased year by year.

Lin Xianyu revealed that the national development and Reform Commission is also studying reform, from the income distribution system and mechanism to tilt the income of residents, so that the growth of residents' income can be synchronized with the growth of GDP as far as possible. "We have considered more about the growth of GDP than before. We have not considered the income level of the residents at the same speed. The wage growth has slowed down a bit. It may be necessary to speed up the growth rate in the future. This also requires some specific measures to protect it."

"Revenue growth in the next 30 years will not only be synchronized with GDP, but will probably be higher than GDP. In the 30 years before reform and opening up, our country did not achieve income synchronization with economic growth. In the next 30 years, the basic trend should be synchronous or slightly higher. Liu Yingqiu is very much in favor of raising the wage level of low-income people. "The proportion of future labor remuneration to GDP will rise more than that of other areas, which is in line with the inherent requirement of China's economic growth and national welfare improvement."