What Should Smes Do? "Three Barren" Roast Should Be Added "Two High".

This year is the beginning of 12th Five-Year. When China's economy is in full swing to advance its goals,

Under the superposition of policy tightening, electricity pressure and multiple pressures, SMEs are experiencing an unprecedented "labor pains".

Reporters recently learned that by the Vice Minister of the central United Front Work Department, the leading Party Secretary and the first vice-chairman of the National Federation of industry and commerce, Quan Zhu Su led the National Federation of industry and Commerce for more than two months, and conducted a systematic investigation of the situation of SMEs in 16 provinces.

The survey found that the current "small money" problem faced by SMEs, especially small and micro enterprises, may be more serious than the financial crisis in 2008.

Related persons told reporters that the Federation of industry and Commerce has submitted the research report to the State Council. The State Council attached great importance to the situation and pferred it to the relevant departments such as the China Banking Regulatory Commission.

Following the new regulations issued by the CBRC to alleviate the shortage of money for small businesses, other ministries and commissions will also introduce policies to help SMEs overcome difficulties.

"Under the pressure of" three wastes and two high ", the profit of private small and medium-sized enterprises is thinner than that of razor blades.

Gu Shengzu, vice chairman of the Central Committee of the people's Republic of China who has long followed the survival of private enterprises, described in a word, the current plight faced by SMEs: labor shortage, shortage of money, electricity shortage, high cost and high tax burden.

Why is there a big gap this year? Why should the small and medium enterprises have to wait for loans? Why did the electricity shortage come ahead in the off-season? To answer these three questions, we have to face some deep problems that plagued China's economy.

The first is also the most profound problem affecting the Chinese economy. The problem is that China's demographic dividend is about to disappear, and the mode of development relying on a large number of cheap labor forces is difficult to sustain.

Cai Fang, director of the Institute of population and labor economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the root cause of the phenomenon of "labor shortage" is that the growth rate of labor supply in China is lower than that caused by economic growth. "Since the beginning of the new century, the growth rate of the working population has been declining, the average annual growth rate is about 1%, but at the same time, China's economy has maintained a two digit rapid growth."

Next is the extensive problem of enterprise development mode.

The reason for the shortage of money is that monetary tightening is the direct cause. Banks' preference for large enterprises and imperfect guarantee system are also important reasons, but the deeper problems exposed should not be ignored.

For a long time, Chinese enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, rely mainly on continuous increase of capital, labor and resources to develop and lack innovation capability.

The advance of electricity shortage indicates that the contradiction between coal and electricity in China has to be solved.

"Market coal and planned electricity" make the production enthusiasm of power generation enterprises not high, and the call for electricity price reform is getting higher and higher.

In fact, the three famine is not only a difficult problem for enterprises to solve, but also a question that China's economy must answer. That is when China's economy can no longer rely on cheap labor, capital and resources to develop, but to pform and upgrade through technological progress.

Pay attention to the plight of small and medium enterprises under the three shortage, some experts think this is only the pain in the structural adjustment, but if the pain is only crying in the front, and not solving the problem from the root, the pain will be a long pain.

"Three famine and two high" plaguing the current Chinese economy

The "money shortage", "electricity shortage", "labor shortage" and "high cost" and "high tax burden", called "three high famine", are affecting all aspects of our life, plaguing the current Chinese economy, making us have to reflect on the original growth mode of China's economy.

"Oil shortage", "gas shortage", "coal shortage" and "water shortage" are perplexing the current Chinese economy.

Some of the most important elements of production and living are becoming scarce.

Nearly 400 cities in the country are short of water.

After "oil shortage" and "coal shortage" and other resource shortage warning, "water shortage" also began to highlight.

Jim Rogers, a former Quantum Fund partner and commodity king, recently said that the shortage of water resources will be the biggest worry for China's economic development. If we can not solve the shortage of water resources, China's prosperity will end.

Taking Beijing as an example, the statistics of Beijing Water Bureau in 2010 showed that the total water resources in the city amounted to 2 billion 184 million cubic meters, the water consumption reached 3 billion 550 million cubic meters, and the gap of water resources in Beijing was close to 1 billion 400 million cubic meters.

Severe water shortage is bound to restrict economic and social development.

Among the 655 cities in the country, nearly 400 cities are short of water, and about 200 cities are seriously short of water.

Of the 32 mega cities with more than one million people, 30 cities are troubled by water shortage for a long time.

"Water shortage" also has the momentum of rapid expansion, and the "South flood and drought" situation is being broken.

Taking Taiwan as an example, because the rainfall in the rainy season is not as good as expected, it is now facing the worst water shortage in 8 years, and 10 counties and cities in the West are facing difficulties in water shortage.

Because semiconductor, panel, plasticizing and steel industry all use more than 1000 tons of water per month, people in Taiwan say that if they enter the third stage of subregional water supply, the manufacturers of these industries are bound to reduce production.

The industry believes that if the drought can not be improved, then the impact on the semiconductor industry will be even more serious than the earthquake in Japan.

In order to fight drought, Taiwan asked manufacturers to reduce the use of air-conditioning and temporarily close the swimming pool.

Some science and Technology Parks in Taiwan have reduced the use of external wall cleaning, watering and cooling systems.

At the same time, the waterwheel became a hot commodity. The rent increased by one or two.

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The "oil shortage" has not dissipated.

As the water shortage spread rapidly, the haze of "oil shortage" did not dissipate.

In Fuling, Chongqing, many farmers could not start their pplanter because they had no gasoline.

A local farmer said, "because of the wrong rice pplanting season, the grain output will be reduced, and the economic loss will be around 50%."

The NDRC officials believe that the tight supply of the market is mainly due to the sharp increase in consumption.

Data show that the first quarter oil consumption of 61 million 870 thousand tons, an increase of 13.6% over the same period, of which diesel consumption increased 15.1% year-on-year; consumption of refined oil consumption increased by 3.6 percentage points higher than the increase of output.

The storage of oil products continued to decline, falling to 13 million 900 thousand tons at the end of 3, down by 8.8%, and diesel stocks 7 million 700 thousand tons, down 15.2%.

At the end of May, the NDRC issued an early warning: the two quarter is the peak season for the consumption of refined oil products in China, coupled with the tight supply of electricity in some parts of the country. The domestic oil supply situation is still not optimistic.

As a resource product, coal, electricity, oil and gas are closely related.

Once the "oil shortage" becomes a reality, its pmission role should not be underestimated.

"Electricity shortage": under the pressure, structural adjustment is more urgent.

There are two important reasons for this round of electricity shortage: supply side and demand side.

From the supply side, there are structural problems in the energy industry.

From the demand side, the demand for high energy consuming industries has risen sharply since the retaliatory rebound this year.

Whether it is the structure of the energy industry or the whole industrial structure of China, the demand for industrial restructuring and upgrading is even more urgent.

This reporter has learned that some enterprises in Jiangsu have received notice of power restriction, and some enterprises have clearly decided that they will be taken power restriction measures in the future. And some enterprises in Zhejiang also say that during the peak season, there will also be electricity limitation notices.

According to the early warning of the national Power Grid Corp, if the water is dry and the abnormal hot weather continues, the regional electricity gap will reach 40 million kilowatts, and the gap between North China, East China and central China will reach 8 million kilowatts, 20 million kilowatts and 12 million kilowatts respectively.

From the supply side, CEC believes that due to the unbalanced structure of power units and the unbalanced regional structure in recent years, the proportion of thermal power has decreased rapidly, the proportion of new energy generating power has increased, the proportion of power installed capacity in the western region has increased rapidly, and the corresponding power grid construction has not kept pace, leading to the serious limitation of the nationwide resource allocation capability, and the increase of the seasonal power gap in the eastern and central regions. On the contrary, the surplus electricity in the western and northeast areas can not be pported to the central and eastern part, which is a typical structural shortage pattern.

From the demand side, the demand for electricity consumption is growing very vigorously.

CLP data show that in April, the monthly scale of electricity consumption in the chemical and building materials industry reached a record high. The black and non-ferrous metal smelting industry also maintained a high level of monthly electricity consumption.

In April, the total electricity consumption of the four industries accounted for 34.4% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society, which was 3.1 percentage points higher than that in March, and the contribution rate to the total electricity consumption in the whole society was 35.6%, which was 3.1 percentage points higher than that in March.

According to data from the NDRC, in the first 4 months, the growth rate of the comprehensive energy consumption of the six high energy consuming industries was 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the comprehensive industrial energy consumption above designated size.

In April, the added value of building materials and chemical industries increased by 18.1% and 13.9% respectively, representing 4.7 and 0.5 percentage points higher than the national average industrial growth rate.

In the same month, crude steel output increased by 59 million 30 thousand tons, an increase of 7.1%; output of cement, flat glass, caustic soda, ethylene and methanol increased by more than 20%.

On the one hand, the power supply capacity is insufficient due to the structural causes of the electricity industry, while the demand for electricity driven by the high energy consuming industry is soaring.

In the medium and long term, how to curb unreasonable high energy consumption demand and promote the development of industrial structure towards a resource conserving and environment-friendly development has become an inevitable road.

Therefore, although the electricity price adjustment has improved the production cost to some extent, the NDRC insiders believe that through price means, raising energy prices, increasing the cost of electricity, and limiting the unreasonable demand for electricity consumption, especially in the high energy consuming industry, is an inevitable choice to promote the pformation of energy conservation, emission reduction, structural adjustment and development mode.

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Labor shortage: structural imbalance in labor force

The "labor shortage" that frequently appeared in newspapers from the financial crisis does not seem to be a flash in the pan.

According to the data released by the China human resources market information monitoring center, in the first quarter of 2011, the ratio of job seeking rate (job vacancy and job seekers ratio) in the 101 cities monitored was about 1.07, which has exceeded the historical high of 0.98 in 2007 to 2008.

It is worth noting that the labor shortage has already spread to the whole country.

According to the data released by the China human resources market information monitoring center, the current labor demand in eastern, central and western regions is greater than that in supply. The ratio of job vacancies to job seekers is 1.09, 1.05 and 1.07 respectively.

From different provinces, the information of Jiangsu's human resources and social security net shows that in the first quarter, the rate of seeking help in the whole province was 1.22, an increase of 0.08 compared with the fourth quarter of last year, an increase of 0.09 compared with the same period last year.

Even as a major province of traditional labor export, Anhui's first rate in the first quarter reached 1.2.

In this "labor shortage", the first to be affected is undoubtedly small and medium-sized enterprises.

According to a survey conducted by the Central People's Government of China, more than 90% of the PRD enterprises interviewed said there was a shortage of labour.

This change in supply and demand forces companies to increase their employees' benefits, thus bringing about an increase in labor costs.

In 2010, most cities in China raised the minimum wage standard, an average increase of 22.8%.

To a certain extent, this indicates that the era of cheap labor in China is becoming the past, and the economic development model which has long been relying on cheap labor to obtain low-cost advantages has been unable to maintain.

Gu Shengzu, vice chairman of the Central Committee of the people's Republic of China, said that abundant and cheap labor resources are important factors to support the first pformation of China's economy, but in recent years, the increasingly prominent "labor shortage" means that this development advantage is gradually disappearing.

The rise in labor costs caused by "labor shortage" is an important force in the pformation of China's economic development mode.

"Labor shortage" is not only a shortage of employment, but also its structural problems.

Reporters interviewed found that some coastal labor-intensive enterprises of the general practitioners and technicians become the most difficult to recruit jobs.

The head of a textile and garment enterprise told reporters that now the general practitioners are not very good at recruiting, and very few people have come to inquire about recruitment information in this area.

Although the wages of enterprises have been quite impressive, many young people are unwilling to engage in these hard traditional industries.

"Now the post-90s young people have changed their minds. They prefer to be a waiter, go to the mall to sell clothes, earn more than 1000 yuan a month, do not want to work in this traditional industry, earn 3000 yuan a month.

So the average age of our industry is too large, which is difficult to change.

The person in charge of the enterprise told reporters.

Besides the general practitioners, it is difficult to acquire skilled personnel.

According to the data of China human resource market information monitoring center, the ratio of job vacancies to job seekers in each technical level is greater than 1, and the demand for labor is greater than that of supply.

Among them, the ratio of job vacancies and job seekers in senior engineers, technicians and senior technicians is 2.29, 2.19 and 1.89 respectively.

Related to this is the change in the total labor force and the proportion of China's labor force.

Zhai Zhenwu, vice president of the China Population Association, told reporters that during the "12th Five-Year" period, the proportion of the working age population aged 15 to 59 will reach the highest point and then slow down.

However, it should be pointed out that even if the proportion began to slow down, the total labor force in China would be much higher than that of all the developed countries. In the short term, the problem of labor shortage existed, but the imbalance of labor structure would be a bigger problem.

"Money shortage": long term "waiting for loans" torment small and medium enterprises

The tightening of monetary policy has made the enterprises that have benefited from the easing policy over the past two years feel deeply uneasy about the "money shortage".

The industry expects that the "money shortage" will continue with the increase in the deposit reserve ratio.

What is the situation of "money shortage"? It can be seen from the time of bank credit.

Guo Bingchao, President of Wenzhou Credit Guarantee Industry Association, told reporters yesterday that under normal circumstances, after the maturity of the loan, the bank will renew the loan soon, the process will take only about a week, but at least the loan will have to wait in line for a month.

Private lending rates rose.

People from the regulatory authorities in Wenzhou told reporters that the average annual interest rate of private lending is still around 24%, and that the interest rate of some private lending institutions may be as high as 39%, compared with that of May.

But as far as private lending is concerned, the key issue now is not how high interest rates are, but whether there is money to lend.

Recently, Zhou Dewen, President of Wenzhou SME Promotion Association, told reporters that every day he had to receive at least three or four foreign people who wanted to raise funds in Wenzhou, and he had to receive a large number of financing calls.

Compared with the "high interest rate", "borrowing money is difficult" problem is more prominent.

The reason for "money shortage" is that monetary policy has shifted from loose to healthy.

Since January 12th, the deposit reserve ratio has been raised, the deposit rate of large financial institutions has been raised 11 times.

Since November last year, at least one deposit rate has been raised every month.

Up to now, the deposit rate of large financial institutions has reached a historical high of 21%, and the retention rate of small and medium financial institutions has reached a high of 17.5% after 8 successive increases.

A large number of banks have been frozen. Guo Bingchao said that if the deposit rate is raised again, banks will have no money to lend, and some enterprises' capital chain may be broken.

This year, Guo Bingchao received many people who came to Wenzhou to investigate, but also repeatedly told his superiors that he could not raise the deposit rate. But according to his estimate, the deposit rate could still be raised, and the "money shortage" would also intensify, and the interest rate of private lending would continue to rise.

Lu Zheng commissar, a senior economist at Xingye Bank, also believes that there will still be a possibility of increasing the deposit rate in June, and that interest rates will continue to increase in June or July.

Bank Jin Research Center believes that the intensity and frequency of monetary tightening in the future will depend on the time and magnitude of price fall.

According to their forecasts, the average growth rate of CPI will remain above 5% in the two quarter of this year. Therefore, interest rates in the two quarter are expected to increase again, and the intensity of the open market operation will not be weakened.

In order to curb imported inflation, the appreciation of the exchange rate will also widen.

However, they believe that if the pressure of price rises is reduced as scheduled in the second half of the year, the intensity and frequency of monetary policy tightening will obviously slow down.

Regulators in Wenzhou maintain their judgment that the "tight financial situation in the second half of the year will be eased".