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Weak Demand; &Nbsp; PTA Material Continues To Search The Bottom.

2011/6/27 14:13:00 51

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Since the beginning of June,

PTA

Before the end of the price period, the oscillation market for nearly a month has returned to the drop channel, and last week it refreshed its previous lows.

I believe that under the pressure of global economic recovery and the huge release of its capacity, the PTA price will continue to be bottoming out.

Last Thursday, the International Energy Agency decided to throw 60 million barrels of emergency oil reserve, which completely broke the wide oscillation of international oil prices in the past 100 months, and dropped sharply to 91 dollars.

On the one hand, the global economic recovery is blocked and the market is worried about the growth of oil demand in the future.

U.S.A

Economics

Weak growth and escalating US debt problems have cast a shadow over the prospects for us economic recovery.

At the same time, the European debt crisis is still unresolved, and the Greek debt crisis is being pushed back to the front stage, which is bound to impact again on the fragile economic recovery in the euro area.

On the other hand, the rising pressure of inflation has made the pressure of high oil prices showing up.

In May, the US CPI rose 3.2%, and the core CPI grew by 1.5%.

The euro area's CPI in May was 2.7%, much higher than the 2% inflation warning line.

Global

inflation

The continued warming of pressure continues to threaten the recovery of the global economy.

For the monetary policy framework commonly adopted by developed countries for inflation targeting, it is difficult for the latter market to launch a large-scale loose monetary policy.

If the price of crude oil, as a benchmark for chemical products, has dropped sharply, the price of PTA will not change to a disadvantage in the short term.

From the perspective of PTA itself, the three quarter will usher in a concentrated release of production capacity. At present, Yisheng Ningbo 2 million tons PTA plant has been put into production, and in 2012, the new capacity of Xiang Lu petrochemical, Yisheng Hainan and Tong Kun group will still be put into operation nearly 7 million 500 thousand tons, and PTA will reappear in 2007.

With the gradual opening of new capacity, the supply pressure will become more evident.

For the lower reaches of PTA, the growth rate of future demand is difficult to keep pace with the release of PTA capacity.

On the one hand, the electricity shortage is still continuing.

Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, as the hardest hit areas of electricity shortage, have recently taken frequent measures to limit electricity in high energy consuming industries.

Zhejiang began to impose punitive electricity tariffs in June 1st. Xiaoshan has also recently announced the implementation of orderly summer electricity consumption for high energy consuming enterprises, involving nearly 100 chemical fiber and textile enterprises, and basically wiped out large chemical fiber and textile enterprises. The demand for polyester and PTA may be further suppressed.

On the other hand, from the perspective of the terminal textile industry, the order of the textile enterprises at the China Fair and Canton Fair, which ended some time ago, is not satisfactory.

Although the export volume continues to grow, it is mainly due to the rise in costs and the general increase in prices of textile enterprises.

The volume of actual exports remained flat and slightly down. Short and medium bills accounted for about 90%, and long bills were few.

Recently, the turnover data of the textile city is even below 6 million meters. With the summer textile industry in the summer, the demand is still warm.

Overall, from the perspective of the whole industry chain, the future PTA industry will usher in a concentrated release of capacity, while the downstream demand is weak and unable to digest the rapid release capacity of PTA.

For PTA, the market outlook may be faced with double extrusion of cost rise and weak demand.

The market outlook does not change to empty expectations.