In The First Half Of This Year, The National Economic Operation Data Is Now Released &Nbsp; GDP Growth Rate Or Continued Slowdown.

At noon on July 5th, the pork stalls in the Beijing market were * cold, and few people came to buy meat. Some of the stall owners were already trapped.

Zhai Yujia, China News Agency

Today, the National Bureau of statistics will announce the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2011, with the exception of much attention.

It is noteworthy that on the 7 th of this month, in order to avoid data leakage in advance, the Bureau of statistics decided to release the monthly and quarterly statistical data in advance of 2-3 days starting from July this year.

Therefore, China's national economic performance conference scheduled for July 15th was held ahead of schedule to 13 days. Before the second quarter press conference was held, press releases were released to release relevant data on the official website of the National Bureau of statistics.

Compared with the prediction of CPI breaking "six" in June, there is no doubt that the prediction of GDP data in the two quarter seems to be accurate only after the decimal point. Then, the views of major institutions and experts are different in predicting the trend of GDP in the second half and the trend of GDP in the whole year. Two opposite views are emerging.

Whether the CPI growth rate was 6.4% in June?

According to the regulations issued earlier by the Bureau of statistics, residents in June

After vegetables, pork has become another leading consumer level.

At the same time, Wang Xiaoguang, a researcher at National School of Administration's decision consultation department, also stressed that CPI broke the "six" has reached the peak of the year when accepting the visit of the new China financial channel. It does not mean that China has entered the era of high inflation.

The relationship between the food factors leading to CPI and the currency is relatively weak. Because of the positive monetary policy pushed forward in the past few years, the volume of money has increased sharply or even some spamming, but it will not lead to long-term inflation in general. The rise of CPI is mainly caused by the gradual rise of pork prices.

Although most institutions and experts have said that CPI has reached the peak of the year, and there will be some consensus in the second half of the year, there are still some people who have questioned this.

Societe Generale Bank (601166) Lu commissar believes that inflation in June is hard to get to the top. Since July 2010, the CPI ratio in most of the month has been higher than that in the normal month.

From the ring comparison, CPI has not yet seen signs of decline.

"China's monetary policy is playing an effective role and inflation is slowing down."

Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist at Bank of China, said that although China's CPI rose by 3 years in June, the core inflation rate, the inflation index excluding core agricultural products (000061) and energy, is decreasing, and monetary policy is effective in restraining inflation.

Two quarter GDP growth or decline, China's economy needs to "slow down"

According to the first quarter national economic performance released by the Statistics Bureau in March this year, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the first quarter of 2011 amounted to 96311 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7% over the same period last year.

At the same time, according to the recent official release of China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data has dropped for 3 consecutive months, the market generally predicted that the two quarter GDP growth will be weaker than the first quarter of 9.7%.

"In the next 1-2 years, China's GDP will definitely not drop."

He Fan, deputy director of the Institute of world economics and politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said recently that from this year's situation, GDP will not be too low this year. It must be above 9.5% or even 10%.

He emphasized that the downward trend of GDP does not mean that China's economy is going downhill. It means that China's economy has been at a relatively normal level through macroeconomic regulation and control.

Societe Generale research director Lu political commissar also said that in the two quarter of the GDP trend, in addition to urban fixed investment in affordable housing, rural water conservancy construction and the first two years of the project has been supported by the possibility of outshine, consumption and exports are expected to continue to fall.

In the second quarter, the single quarter GDP growth rate is about 9.5%.

By contrast, some experts and scholars do not agree with the two quarter GDP forecast to continue to fall.

Wang Xiaoguang said that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter of this year was 9.7% higher than that in the first quarter, and is expected to be between 10%-10.2%.

He pointed out that there are two main reasons: first, the trade surplus in the second quarter of this year is a positive contribution to the trend of GDP, and the trade deficit in the first quarter, so the contribution of exports to GDP growth in the two quarter is definitely stronger than that in the first quarter. Two, the investment in 4-6 months is faster, and it will also accelerate the growth of GDP.

Coincidentally, Huatai Securities also predicts that GDP will grow by 9.8% in the two quarter.

The broker believes that the slowdown in demand expansion is not evident in the two quarter. Fixed asset investment has enhanced economic growth, and the trade surplus has contributed to economic growth. In the two quarter, GDP growth will be slightly higher than in the first quarter.

In addition, as to whether China's economic growth will slow down, Wang Xiaoguang said that the slowdown in China's economic growth will help pform the economic model, control inflation and solve the financing difficulties of SMEs, and so on, which is conducive to the rational development of China's economy.

He believes that China's economic growth rate of around 8% is the most appropriate choice, but also a sign of healthy economic development, rather than the so-called reduction of economic growth factors after the "hard landing".

But from a practical perspective, the slowdown in China's economic growth is not as easy as imagined. He Fan, deputy director of the Institute of world economics and politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, expressed concern about the government's investment.

He believes that government investment plays a very important role in the trend of GDP. First of all, this year is the opening year of 12th Five-Year. Many new strategic industries started this year.

In addition, it is to protect housing. This year's target is 10 million new projects, but only 30% of them will start in May. Most of them are in the second half of this year, so the government's investment will continue to be strong in the second half of the year.

Therefore, he fan predicted that in the next 1-2 years, China's GDP will definitely not decline.

If GDP fails, it will bring about another problem, price control and inflation, which explains why the main task in the government work report is inflation.