When Will China'S Macro Economy Get Out Of The Era Of Civil Engineering Economy?

China's GDP is too dependent on the second industry, while the total output value of China's construction industry is 4 trillion and 310 billion yuan in the first half of this year. It is the industry with the highest output value of all second industries.

That is to say, the biggest source of output value of China's macroeconomy is various engineering projects.

The National Bureau of statistics issued the China Economic semi annual report in July 13th.

Generally speaking, the semi annual report is in line with the Statistics Bureau spokesman's conclusion: "the economy is running well and continues to move forward.

For example, as a whole, after the preliminary calculation by the National Bureau of statistics, the GDP in the first half of this year was 204459 billion yuan, up by 9.6% over the same period.

This is still the best economic growth rate in the world, compared with Europe's debt problem for the five European pig countries (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland). The United States is worried about the national debt ceiling, and there is no conclusion on the future of Japan's post quake economy. This speed has maintained China's position as the main engine of the global economy.

But if we look at it from different angles, there are still many problems.

For example, from the industry point of view, the added value of the primary industry is 15700 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2%; the second industry added value of 102178 billion yuan, an increase of 11%; third industrial added value of 86581 billion yuan, an increase of 9.2%.

This shows that China's economic pformation is far from complete, and the second industry still exists too large.

Because the third industry has less than 85% of the second industries, while GDP accounts for only 42.3%.

The US data in 2009 showed that the GDP ratio of the third industry was 76.9%, and that of the second industry (GDP accounted for 21.9%) was 3.5 times.

Although this comparison may be biased, it is true that China's GDP relies too much on the second industry.

The main feature of the second industry is resource consumption. Electricity, petrochemical and iron and steel are all industries that rely on investment and resources. Although the second industry also includes high-tech products such as electronic vehicles.

But the rapid growth of China's GDP, electricity, petrochemical and steel shows that China's heavy chemical industry stage is far from over.

This reality also means that China's economy has not been structurally free from resources consumption.

The statistical process of real estate industry is based on China's macro statistical data from second industries and third industries.

Its construction part belongs to the second industry, and the rest of it belongs to the third industry.

The gross output value of China's construction industry was 4 trillion and 310 billion yuan in the first half of this year, and the highest output industry of all second industries. It was nearly 10 times of the second power output value, 13 times the pportation equipment including automobiles, 100 times the non-ferrous metal industry, 46 times of the stone oil and natural gas extraction industry, and 18.6 times of the railway pportation industry.

That is to say, the largest source of the output value of China's macro economy is all kinds of engineering construction.

This may include investment in heavy chemical industry and pportation infrastructure construction, but it should be considered the contribution of the real estate industry to the second industry in the third industry.

According to this reality, China's economy is not too much of a civil engineering economy.

In the same period, China's real estate investment was 2 trillion and 660 billion yuan, and the sales income of commercial housing was 246 million yuan.

Of course