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Market Capital Is Still Tight &Nbsp; Monetary Policy Is Short Or Hard To Loose.

2011/7/27 11:44:00 44

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Market Funds Face Tight Monetary Short Term

In just two weeks, the open market alone.

capital

The scale of the withdrawal has been returned to the ground from 100 billion magnitude.

Yesterday, the central bank opened the market in the open market on Tuesday only by issuing a one-year central bank note, which has recovered 1 billion yuan.

And two weeks ago, the single market return volume in the open market once exceeded the scale of 100 billion yuan.

Behind the "open ups and downs" of open market operation is the capital side under tight balance.

Although the central bank did not raise the required reserve requirement rate again in July, the capital market in July did not appear to have been loosened by the "half year test" at the end of June, and was further tightened in mid July.

In the interbank repo market, the short term capital price (1624.40,7.60,0.47%) of overnight and 7 days, except for a few trading days, is more than 4%. In the last week, it exceeds 5%.

This contrasts sharply with the past situation.

In most of the first half of the year, even if the most stressful situation occurs, the duration is usually around a week. Once the sensitive points such as the end of the month are passed, the capital supply in the interbank market will immediately recover, and the capital prices will begin to fall rapidly.

In July, the financial crisis lasted for a long time, far exceeding market expectations.

There are indeed some new demand for funds this month.

First, with the increase of new revenue, the size of new subscription funds has doubled since June.

Secondly, with

Bank

The central enterprises dividend was concentrated in July.

These two items will increase liquidity by nearly 300 billion yuan in the short term.

In addition, as the CBRC has increased its supervision over banking financial services, the agency is worried that once the off balance sheet business is turned into the situation in the table, the capital side will further increase the pressure due to the reserve payment, so that it tends to maintain liquidity and reduce the capital supply of the market.

Although these new factors are only temporary, some remain at the level of psychological anticipation, but the response of the capital market is precisely that if the overall liquidity is in a tight balance, any additional pressure may break the balance, resulting in a phased financial strain, and then pressure on other securities assets.

Last week, the bond market plummeted, some of which were the reason for selling cash.

According to a number of research institutes, even if the statutory

reserve

The current financial environment may not be improved.

The reason is that after the 6 increase this year, the reserve ratio has reached 21.5%, and its "snowball effect" began to ferment.

In a research report, CICC pointed out that unless the trend of foreign exchange rises, or the central bank starts to reduce the required reserve ratio, otherwise, the capital side will always be in a tight equilibrium state, and the repo rate will easily become a habitual impulse due to the accidental impact of some tens of billions of equivalent factors.

Taking into account the current tight funding situation, since last week, the open market has begun to shrink and return to power, and this week, the amount of land withdrawal, but this is only to alleviate short-term liquidity pressure and take the expedient measure, not a loose signal monetary policy.

It is noteworthy that the meeting of the Central Political Bureau last week will stabilize prices as the primary task in the second half of the year.

Therefore, in the short term, the possibility of loosening of tight monetary policy is not great. In the coming period, the tight balance of funds will become a norm.