The Global Central Bank Policy Has Split Into &Nbsp, And Many Economies Are In A Dilemma.

The European debt crisis has not yet subsided, and the risk of US debt is rising again.

Bank of China (3.08,0.05,1.65%) International

In the current advanced economic camps, the least suspense of monetary policy is the United States and Japan.

Among them, the main risk points in the US are high unemployment, sluggish real estate market and debt and deficit problems.

Although analysts expect the US economy to accelerate in the three quarter, it will be very slight, and will not change the pattern of the overall recovery, so the possibility of short-term interest rate adjustment in the US is minimal.

By contrast, the situation in Japan may be even worse.

After the "3 / 11" earthquake, Japan's economic downturn exceeded expectations, and the supply chain of the manufacturing industry chain was interrupted.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Japan's GDP will shrink by 0.7% this year, and that it will grow by 2.9% in 2012.

Many analysts also lowered Japan's economic forecast. Goldman Sachs Group lowered its GDP estimate from 0.7% to 0.2% in 2011.

In view of Japan's economic downturn and deflation risk, following the call on the Bank of Japan to increase its asset purchases in June 9th, IMF again recommended that the BoJ expand the scale of quantitative easing on 19 April to prevent further deterioration of deflation.

Bian Weihong also believes that considering the three quarter of Japan's economy may enter an important stage of post disaster reconstruction, investment demand will increase significantly. The Bank of Japan should consider expanding the scale of asset purchases in an appropriate manner to support the economy.

There may be no policy tightening in the US and Japan. The ECB and the Bank of England are facing more complicated situations.

Bian Weihong believes that at present, the ECB's monetary policymakers need to consider at least three factors.

The first is inflation.

In view of the current euro zone inflation level has exceeded the European Central Bank's tolerance limit, the European Central Bank's management committee member Noah recently told the media that the ECB is very vigilant against inflationary pressure, saying that some of the cost of raw materials and some euro zone countries increased taxes, which means that despite the slowdown in the two quarter economic growth, there is still a risk of rising prices.

The second is economic factors.

On the one hand, the European debt crisis is far from being settled, the financial turmoil continues, and the debt risk is spreading to regional banks. On the other hand, the overall recovery of the euro area is still relatively weak. Most countries, except Germany and France, are still weak.

"Considering that the economic growth of different countries in the euro area is quite different, adjusting or not adjusting the interest rate policy may mean sacrificing the interests of some countries to balance regional development.

This is the unique problem of the European Central Bank. "

Bian Weihong said.

Finally, whether the ECB raises interest rates is also related to the fluctuation of financing costs in the euro area.

After the two increase in interest rates in April and July, the cost of financing in the euro area has been much higher than that in the UK. Further interest rate hikes will lead to a more unfavorable situation in the European financial market, and may even aggravate the deterioration of the European debt crisis.

Based on the above considerations, Bian Wei Hong believes that the ECB's probability of raising interest rates in August is less.

Britain, which remains low in interest rates, is also facing the dual pressure of inflation and economic depression, which has triggered the internal policy differences of the British central bank.

Will, member of the monetary policy committee of the bank, believes that raising interest rates will help the Bank of England to achieve its inflation target quickly and make it more flexible in monetary policy.

He said: "the 25 basis points of raising interest rates will have little impact on demand in the next 6 months, but will send signals to the market: we are concerned about the degree of inflation and the growth prospects are the same."

His colleague, Pogson, believes that inflation in the UK will reach its peak in the coming months, hoping that the Bank of England will introduce more quantitative easing measures.

Prior to this, the British central bank has launched a total of 200 billion pounds of government bonds purchase plan.

According to the survey, the probability that the Bank of England launched the second round of buying government bonds has increased to 25% from 20% a month ago. It is estimated that the rate of increase in interest rates this year will fall to 30% from the 70% survey in June.

Bian Weihong believes that taking into account the current domestic economic downturn in the United Kingdom, Europe and the United States and other peripheral risks continue to exist and there is an upward trend. It is estimated that the probability of the Bank of England to expand quantitative easing policy is greater than the probability of raising interest rates, but its strategy in August is likely to remain unchanged.

Next week's first interest note for the Bank of Australia is simpler.

Since the launch of the first interest rate hike in the developed economies in October 2009, the Bank of Australia has raised interest rates to seven in the current interest rate of 4.75%, stopping the policy tightening in December last year.

However, there are signs that the bank may again raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month.

On the 28 th of this month, Australia released slightly higher than expected two quarter inflation data.

Data show that Australia's CPI increased by 0.8% in the two quarter, with an annual increase of 3.6%, which is expected to be 0.6% and 3.4% respectively.

CPI grew by a record 1.6% in the first quarter.

Annulus ratio and annual growth rate are both higher than expected, which is the main background of market speculation that the Bank of Australia raised interest rates.

In addition to the strong domestic economic activity, Bian Wei Hong believes that the Australian dollar's recent high inflation has also increased inflation pressure objectively, so the bank's interest rate hike this month has greatly increased.

There is also the need for policies to tighten up the emerging economies.

In fact, in order to curb inflation and the risk of hot money inflow, most of the emerging market countries have taken steps to increase interest rates since the second half of last year.

The two most recent is 26 this month, the Central Bank of India unexpectedly raised interest rates by 50 basis points, and 21 Brazil central bank raised interest rates 25 basis points.

However, a large number of emerging economies have begun to slow down the pace of raising interest rates or change the tightening strategy.

On the 28 day, the Central Bank of Philippines decided to increase the deposit reserve ratio by one percentage point, but kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5%.

Bian Weihong believes that the import oriented inflation pressure of emerging economies will still exist, and the general direction of tightening monetary policy has not changed.

But after frequent frequent increases in interest rates, the follow-up measures should consider more complex solutions, such as the combination of monetary policy adjustment and capital control.

"If the monetary policy intensity of the emerging economies is too large, it will not only lead to negative effects, but also, if the external financial market is in turmoil, these countries may be passive in policy response."