Analysis Of The Overall Development Of Domestic Textile Industry
As a high energy consumption market, the textile industry has become a key industry of national energy conservation reform.
Statistics show that the total energy consumption of China's textile industry is roughly 4.84 tons of standard coal / ton fiber, of which the energy consumption of the clothing industry is 1.05 tons of standard coal / ton clothing, the energy consumption of the weaving industry is 0.95 tons of standard coal / ton fiber, and the energy consumption of the printing and dyeing industry is 2.5 to 3.2 tons of standard coal / ton fiber, with an average of 2.84 tons of standard coal / ton fiber.
In the coming period, whether in domestic policies (capital, land, etc.) or on export policy, the state's protection for the textile industry will gradually weaken, especially in the case of
Textile industry
Under the background of absorbing the positive role of labor force.
First, the competitiveness of textile exports has declined.
1. the policy environment is not conducive to the export of textiles.
At present, textile export has 16% of export tax rebates, and 16% of export tax rebates mean that textile exporting enterprises can earn tax rebate even if they do not make money.
At the same time, the tax rebate is not fully subsidized to domestic textile production enterprises, and foreign businessmen have already taken into account this part of the tax rebates when bidding.
Therefore, when rumours are that the export tax rebate will be reduced from 16% to 11%, many enterprises claim that there will be no profit at all, which reflects the low bargaining power and profitability of many textile enterprises in China.
2. pressure on RMB appreciation
The appreciation of the renminbi means that the price rise of domestic export commodities calculated in foreign currencies means domestic.
Textile exports
Competitiveness in prices has declined.
At present, the trend of RMB appreciation will continue, which will increase the export pressure of textiles.
The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has reached 6.4, an increase of about 5.88% compared with 6.8 in June 2010.
According to the exchange rate theory, with the development of a country's economy, its exchange rate will inevitably face appreciation pressure. According to the rapid development of China's economy in the past decades and the level of RMB exchange rate, we can judge that the RMB exchange rate is relatively undervalued.
3. comparison of production costs at home and abroad
In terms of production cost, the proportion of raw materials, labor, energy and other materials varies, but it is obvious that the labor costs and energy costs of enterprises are rising.
The wage level of workers has been rising continuously in recent years, and enterprises have been faced with the problem of recruitment difficulties. Some enterprises, though limited in orders, are still afraid of stopping work because of fear of the loss of workers.
At the same time, the energy cost of enterprises is rising rapidly.
The cost of cotton growing in China is constantly rising. Taking cotton in Xinjiang as an example, in 2010, the cost of cotton planting in the northern Xinjiang regiment was around 1400 yuan / mu, and the area was around 1200 yuan / mu. And by this year, the cost of cotton planting in the northern Xinjiang regiment reached 1700 yuan / mu, and the cost of local planting rose to 1500 yuan / mu. The cost of planting in the southern Xinjiang reached 2000 yuan / mu, and the increase was 400 to 500 yuan / ton.
Cotton planting costs continue to rise, making domestic cotton prices at a high level, and cotton accounted for the largest cost of textile enterprises, from 60% to 80%, at the same time from the cost of domestic and foreign cotton planting, domestic cotton unit cost is the highest in the world, which determines the domestic textile enterprises are facing great cost pressures.
4. overcapacity
Domestic cotton textile industry has been in an excess capacity.
Enterprise operating rate
Insufficient.
According to the relevant data analysis, in 2010, the domestic textile industry capacity is about 120 million spindles, and the capacity is expected to be around 150 million spindles this year. In these capacity, the start of large enterprises is better, and the operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises is difficult to guarantee.
In the context of excess capacity, new construction capacity is bound to face huge challenges in the sales market and profitability. The industry shuffle is inevitable, and the sharp fluctuations in raw material prices will accelerate the process of shuffling, the latter will increase the concentration of industries, and the small and medium enterprises with insufficient operating rate will face the fate of bankruptcy or acquisition.
5. chemical fiber replacement products increased
The high price of cotton has enhanced the substitution effect of relatively cheap chemical fiber products.
Under the pressure of raw material cost, textile enterprises have increased demand for polyester staple and viscose staple fiber.
In addition, with the development of more and more new-type natural fiber substitutes, the texture of many chemical fiber products is close to cotton and the choice of raw materials for textile enterprises is expanding.
Therefore, the substitution effect of chemical fiber products on cotton will increase, and it will make a great impact on pure cotton spinning products.
6. orders will continue to pfer to Southeast Asia and other regions.
In recent years, the pfer of orders to Southeast Asia is very obvious. Orders from European and American markets have shifted to lower remuneration economies such as Kampuchea and Vietnam.
From 1 to April this year, the total number of imported garments in the United States increased by 6.6%, but the number of imports from China has declined slightly. Meanwhile, the number of garments exported to other countries in Southeast Asia has increased by more than 15%.
The pfer of orders has led to the pfer of domestic textile industry. There are two tendencies in the pfer of domestic textile industry, one is pferred to the Midwest, the two is to pfer to other Southeast Asian countries.
Two, the importance of the domestic market is improving.
1. increasing domestic living standards will continue to increase demand for textiles.
From the domestic sales situation, the demand for textiles in the domestic market has begun to increase, and the quantity, variety, grade and quality of textile products are increasingly demanding.
In the face of pressure on exports, the domestic market has become a market that late enterprises need to focus on, and the domestic market will be the first driving force for the development of the textile industry.
The sustained and steady expansion of domestic demand has provided favorable market conditions for the development of the industry. The market demand of China's textile and clothing domestic demand is huge, and the total consumption of the 1 billion 300 million population determines that the domestic demand market must rely on the domestic textile industry.
2. the export of domestic high-grade textiles is still competitive.
The domestic cotton textile industry chain is relatively complete, and other Southeast Asian countries are inferior to the domestic ones in terms of high-end products. Therefore, the export of domestic high-grade textiles has certain competitiveness.
However, after the global financial crisis, the pace of economic recovery in the United States slowed down, and the European debt crisis continued. This contrasts sharply with the sustained and rapid development of the domestic economy.
The sluggish economy has led to a decline in consumer demand. Textile orders in Europe and the United States are still still in the doldrums, mainly based on short lists and small bills. This also reflects the reality of income affecting consumption.
Three, the high and low end of the industry has different living conditions.
In the big rise and fall of cotton prices, the biggest impact is a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises in the low end of these enterprises, these enterprises are weak in anti risk ability, many enterprises stop work or halt work, the small weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have about 1/3 of the enterprise "holiday", and about 1 /5 of small manufacturers have begun to sell machines, some enterprises are "bite teeth hard", the reason why the enterprises are afraid to stop work easily, mainly because it is difficult to recruit workers in a short time after the shutdown, the goods sources and sales channels will be affected.
The competition of homogenization of the low-end enterprises in the industrial chain is fierce. The proportion of cotton raw material costs in the low-end enterprises is even greater. Therefore, the weakening of the competitiveness of the low-end enterprises will be an inevitable trend when the domestic cotton cost price is more and more obvious compared with the inferior position abroad.
Enterprises positioned in the high-end industry chain will have stronger ability to pfer raw material costs and labor costs to the downstream. Under the situation of large fluctuations in futures prices and real cotton spot prices, enterprises will lock the cost of upstream high-grade cotton in Xinjiang on the one hand, and on the other hand, the cost rising pressure of cotton blending and imported cotton belt will be pferred to the sales link, thus ensuring the profits of enterprises.
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