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The Euro Has Been Stimulated By Short-Term Gains By &Nbsp, While The Market Outlook Is Still Not Optimistic.

2011/9/12 11:54:00 35

Under the cloud of sovereign debt crisis, there is a lack of economic fundamentals.

Euro

All kinds of speeches and initiatives, which are always subject to the member states of the euro zone, have become the "wall of grass".

Despite the fact that the Swiss central bank set the minimum exchange rate between the euro and the Swiss Franc in September 6th, and the decision of the Federal Constitutional Court in September 7th to assist the debt crisis countries, the euro has really soared. However, the euro rally is likely to stop abruptly in September 8th, and the market outlook is not optimistic.

Short term boost

In September 7th, the euro rose 0.7% against the US dollar in September 7th, while the euro continued with the Swiss franc.

Rise

Momentum, late 1.2100.

Obviously, in September 7th, the German Federal Constitutional Court's decision to assist Germany in the euro zone became the biggest driving force to support the euro's rise.

The German Federal Constitutional Court ruled that the German government's involvement in last year's Greek aid measures did not violate the constitution, supporting the first Greek rescue plan and the European financial stability fund (EFSF).

Affected by this news, European stock markets rebounded in September 7th after 3 consecutive trading days, especially the Greek stock index soared 8%.

The day before, the Swiss central bank announced that the euro's minimum target rate for the Swiss Franc should be set at 1.2000. The euro fell against the Swiss franc, which rose nearly 9% in just 15 minutes.

However, an economic analyst at a securities company told the international finance Daily: "the Swiss bank's measures to set the minimum exchange rate against the Swiss Franc are only temporary measures.

In the current eurozone, once the Swiss central bank withdraws from intervention or the eurozone debt crisis spreads again, it will lead to a further slide in the euro against the Swiss franc.

At the same time, some efforts of the "European pig countries" (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) also helped to boost the recent trend of the euro.

In September 7th, the Italy Senate approved a compact budget of tens of billions of euros.

US dollar or strength

In addition to watching the news of the eurozone, President Obama and Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke will deliver a speech on Thursday, also tightening the nerves of the foreign exchange market.

According to foreign media reports, Obama will give a stimulus package of $300 billion to the economy in September 8th, in order to boost the job market.

Specific measures include tax cuts, infrastructure spending, direct assistance to local and state governments.

Similarly, the market has been looking forward to the results of the Fed's September monetary policy meeting.

"For the next time, the trend of the euro depends largely on the United States.

Overall, the US dollar may be stronger against the euro. "

The above analysts pointed out that, on the one hand, Obama launched the employment stimulus plan is likely to have a certain boost to the US dollar.

On the other hand, it is not expected that Bernanke will launch the QE3 that the market expects in September.

At the same time, although the decision of the German Federal Constitutional Court supported the first round of bailout of Greece and the European financial stability fund, it also made further restrictions on the budgetary power of the German government.

In the future, the German government must be approved by the German parliamentary budget committee before providing assistance.

Some analysts believe this request may further slow down the debt crisis in Europe.

"Despite the fact that there are some euro zones in recent days

Favorable

News came out, but the eurozone's solution to the debt crisis is still difficult and it does not exclude the possibility of further debt and economic deterioration in some countries.

Therefore, the euro market will be weaker than the US dollar. "

The analysts said.

The market is still repeated.

However, in the euro area recently released good news, the Asian exchange market in September 8th, the euro against the dollar reversed the previous pattern of rising.

Yesterday's Asian exchange market in early trading, the euro fell against the dollar high, at the 1.4100 pass consolidation, reaching a minimum of 1.4077.

"In September 8th, the overall volatility of the exchange rate market was small, basically in the state of waiting for news."

"The current European Central Bank's interest rate resolution on Thursday night is the biggest factor in the euro," the analysts said.

It is expected that the ECB will not cut interest rates immediately, but it will not rule out further expansion of its balance sheet or the injection of capital into major euro zone banks. "

Economists close to the European Central Bank's policy move say the ECB is inclined to take the lead in offering other "good medicine", such as restarting the 12 month loan operation or lowering overnight interest rates.

"Before the ECB makes interest rate decisions, the euro will basically be in a state of consolidation against the US dollar.

Once the ECB takes further capital injection and the European central bank governor Tyse expressed concern about the prospects for the euro area at the press conference on the interest rate resolution, the euro could fall below the 1.4000 integer mark.

The analysts pointed out.