Cheng Siwei: The Inflation Situation Is Not Optimistic. &Nbsp, Prices Will Not Drop.

On the morning of September 16th, the latest statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that in August, China's CPI rose 6.2%, down 0.3%. In this regard, former vice chairman of the National People's Congress Cheng Si Wei told sina finance at the Davos forum that the current inflation situation should not be too optimistic. Plunge 。

"CPI 5-5.5% is pretty good all year round."

According to the latest statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics, China's CPI rose 6.2% in August, down 0.3% from the same month. Cheng Siwei analysis said that we should not be too optimistic about the inflation situation. He said that there are still factors that affect inflation, that is, excess liquidity, imported inflation and 14.36,0.04,0.28% prices. He thought CPI would be good at 5-5.5% all year.

However, Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the NDRC, said at the Forum on the day before yesterday, at least from the statistical data, there appeared an "inflection point". He believes that because there are some favorable factors for stabilizing prices, the price trend of the next stage will remain basically stable, and the annual CPI increase may be in the "4% right-hand point".

House prices will not drop.

In view of the real estate prices, Cheng Siwei issued the view that housing price It can drop by 25% at most. However, he believes that the possibility of a big drop in house prices is unlikely. "Because a big drop will bring problems to all aspects, and the assets of those who have already bought will shrink, and banks will also have problems."

He believes that the rise in house prices is triggered by rising land prices: "housing prices need to be reduced by developers, and the government should reduce land prices and reduce related taxes and fees".

He also warned that "when housing prices return to a reasonable level, if consumers wait for money, the price will not drop again."

Cheng Siwei believes that differentiated credit policies should be implemented to support the purchase needs of the first suite. He suggested that people who buy the first suite should adopt differentiated credit policy. "No loan" and "down payment increase" are unfavorable for rigid demand housing, and the first suite mortgage interest rate should be reduced.

The recent trend and fundamental deviation of A shares

In view of the recent fluctuations in the A share market, Cheng Siwei said that the recent trend of A shares has indeed deviated from the fundamentals of China's economy. He believes that the maturity of the stock market is not enough, excessive speculation and high turnover rate show investors. reason The quality of listed companies also has problems.

He also believes that we need to improve the basic system of stock market and improve regulation. The current stock market reflects that we should further strengthen the system construction and warn the macro economy that we need to be vigilant.

"The economic stimulus plan implemented in the second half of 08 years is necessary. If there is no four trillion stimulus plan, the GDP growth rate in 09 years will not reach 9.2% in real terms. But it also has a negative impact, resulting in overheated investment, overcapacity, backlog of products and investment efficiency, and also brings pollution problems. " Cheng Siwei said.

Buying European debt is more risky.

Cheng Siwei also believes that foreign exchange reserves are not the best way to buy bonds. Take the US debt as an example. "In the past more than 10 years, the rate of return on investment in the United States is 8%, but our interest rate is only about 4%.

As for whether the Chinese government should invest in European debt, Cheng Siwei said that the risks from the economic point of view are higher, especially in some countries in southern Europe. In recent days, yields on Greek one-year bonds have fluctuated above 100%.

However, "political considerations are another problem." Cheng Siwei said. (